Wildfire in New Mexico, July 1 to 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1135 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered shra with embedded isold ts remain over parts of central
and western NM, and this activity will taper off over the next few
hours. Outflow from ts activity over CO has pushed swd into the
northeastern plains, and will bring brief gusty winds to KTCC b/w
0630Z to 08Z. Otherwise, conditions turn mostly calm going into
Friday morning and with remnant debris cigs. Another round of diurnal
convection is expected to fire up over the high terrain starting at
18Z Friday before moving over surrounding lower elevations. VCTS is
included at a number of terminals for this activity except KFMN-
KTCC-KROW as these sites look to be a bit too far away to get direct
impacts from storms. Models show another convective outflow bdry
spreading swd through the eastern plains again tomorrow evening,
bringing a repeat round of gusty winds to KTCC past 00Z.

24

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.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and thunderstorms will continue across western and
northern New Mexico overnight as monsoon moisture increases from the
south. An uptrend in storm coverage is forecast for Friday as moisture
combines with a weak cold front moving in from the northeast. The
active monsoon pattern continues into the 4th of July Holiday weekend
with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
producing locally heavy rainfall for western and central portions of
the state. The monsoon moisture plume is forecast to drift eastward
early next week with eastern areas of the state getting into the act.
High temperatures will be near average for early July.

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.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
12Z upper air data showed the upper high slowly weakening and moving
east over north central/northeast NM compared to 24hrs prior. PWATs
were on the uptrend across central and western NM and the 12Z KABQ
upper air sounding showed an increase to 0.85" from 0.72" 24hrs
prior. This trend is forecast to continue through Friday night, with
PWATs trending up to above 1" at KABQ as the upper high continues a
slow weakening and southeast drift. Today's crop of daytime heating
triggered storms is an improvement from yesterday's limited round,
but we're expecting a more significant uptick Friday. The monsoon
moisture plume, which shows nicely on the latest water vapor
satellite imagery across central/western AZ and far western NM, will
shift east Friday through Friday night and position squarely over
our area. This increase in moisture, combined with a weakening upper
high and a weak backdoor front, explains the forecast uptick in
storm coverage and qpf for Friday. The backdoor front will move
south out of CO tonight, aided by convective outflow, and will bring
added moisture and forcing to the Sangre De Cristos and adjacent
highlands for Friday. Combine this with daytime heating and weak
westerlies around the top of the weakening upper high circulation
and we have the ingredients for deep sustained convection capable of
producing heavy rain across the Sangre De Cristos, adjacent
highlands and even Union Co. The southwest mountain may also be
setup for some heavy rainfall Friday given the moisture surge and
even weaker steering flow. Will issue a Flash Flood Watch for Cerro
Pelado and Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon burn scars for Friday
afternoon/evening and may need to consider expanding to include
areas from near Raton to near Clayton given good run-to-run
consistency from the NAM showing more significant qpf of 1-2" in
that area. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will trend down several
degrees across central and western NM Friday due to added cloud
cover and anticipated rain-cooling.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Elongated upper-level high over the Southern Plains and South
continues in place Saturday through the 4th of July weekend. The
moist flow between this high and a closed low just off of the PACNW
will continue to result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening over the northwest half or
so of the state. Both the GFS and ECMWF limit convective development
on Sunday thanks to a subsidence inversion strengthening over the
southeast half of the state. GFS seems too dry with the NAM and ECMWF
breaking out thunderstorms over much of the the northwest third or so.
Given that PWATs are forecast to be above climatology and with
plenty of sunshine forecast for Sunday morning, trended precipitation
chances slightly up above NBM guidance Sunday afternoon and evening
as a result. Monsoon moisture plume is forecast to shift slightly
eastward Monday with more storms expected over the northeast and
central highlands and possibly western edges of the eastern plains.
GFS and ECMWF both bring up an easterly wave in the flow Tuesday
which will likely help trigger numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

By Thursday, the Four Corners' or monsoon high strengthens over
northern AZ and southern UT, helping to shift the monsoon moisture
along and east of the central mountain chain. Then, much like last
year, the high becomes quite the behemoth (602dm) over eastern UT
and western CO. The easterly flow aloft begins scouring out monsoon
moisture from northern NM with the southern half of the state favored
for afternoon storms. Additionally, the ECMWF ensemble or ENS weekly
precipitation anomaly forecasts are hot off the presses (June 30),
indicating that the monsoon (likely reverse) is here to stay despite
the Four Corners' beast setting up over the Eastern Great Basin and
Central Rockies.

11/33

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.FIRE WEATHER...
The monsoon moisture plume will shift east over the state Friday
into Saturday, bringing the return of scattered to numerous wetting
storms with the potential for burn scar flooding. An active wetting
storm regime with higher humidity will persist through the weekend
and into early next week, favoring central and western NM. By the
middle of next week, a new upper high center is forecast to build up
over UT/CO, which will allow chances for wetting storms across the
eastern plains to trend up. Daytime temperatures will generally be
at or below normal through the forecast period due to the added
cloud cover and anticipated rain-cooling. Humidity recovery will
generally be good to excellent through the weekend and into the
middle of next week.

11

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for the
following zones... NMZ211-214-215.

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