NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 13, 10:55 PM MST, 3 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 13, 10:55 PM MST, 3 hours 34 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1155 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving weather system will affect much of North Central and
Southwest MT through Wednesday with a mix of precipitation and
thunderstorms. Snow, heavy at times, is expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front and across the mountains of Central MT through
Wednesday. Thunderstorms will affect Southwest MT over the next
few days. Additionally, below normal temperatures early this week
will rise well above normal for Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Updated forecast is out this evening. Main adjustment was to
freshen Pops this evening. Temperatures are below freezing over
the Rocky Mountain Front in the mountains, so as precipitation
develops, it should be mostly snow for elevations above 5000/6000
feet. The snow will develop over Central MT after Midnight, thus
no changes to the winter highlights. For the QPF for Tuesday, the
downslope winds could limit some of the forecast QPF over the
Plains, so some adjustments to the current QPF forecast for
Tuesday are possible overnight. The wind forecast looks on track,
no changes. Do expect some wind impacts on Tuesday, especially
since trees have fully leafed out. All flood highlights look on
track from this afternoon, with no changes. Note, the latest river
forecasts crests on the Gallatin/Missouri have gone down a touch,
which is good news. Brusda
&&
.AVIATION...
1155 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022 (14/06Z TAF period)
A low pressure system will move slowly east along the Canadian
border over the next 24 hours, driving the weather across North
Central, Central, and Southwest Montana. Overall, though, mostly VFR
conditions are expected, unless otherwise mentioned. A disturbance
will bring showers, possibly with periods of MVFR conditions, to
Southwest Montana through around 15Z, but showers will linger
through at least 00Z around KWYS. Otherwise, the low pressure system
will spread strong gusty westerly winds with periods of rain and
mountain snow over the area from the northwest through 18Z. This
should cause occasional mountain obscuration in periods of MVFR
conditions, mountain wave turbulence, and low level wind shear.
-Coulston
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 605 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2022/
Today through Friday... The main concerns for the next few days
will be broken down by topic.
Winter Weather...No changes to current winter highlights. Snow,
heavy at times, is expected to develop over the Rocky Mountain
Front and across Central MT tonight, then last into Wednesday.
There will be a sharp cut off in snow as you go down in elevation,
and out over the Plains, where strong downslope winds will occur.
Since some of the snowfall will occur during the day on Tuesday,
some melting will occur, making total snow accumulation totals a
bit difficult Never the less, the previous snowfall forecasts are
generally on track, with a general 4 to 8 inches around pass
level and 12 to 20+ inches at ridge tops.
High Winds...Only change, added Fergus County to the high wind
watch for Wednesday. The other wind highlights remain the same. As
the upper level low develops over North Central MT, strong
downslope winds will also develop over North Central MT. The
strong winds could develop as early as early Tuesday morning over
the western portions of North Central MT, and then will gradually
spread out over the Plains on Tuesday. There is still a reasonable
probability for strong winds on Wednesday over the eastern
portions of the CWA, thus the high wind watch continues for that
area. Impacts from the wind could result in higher tree damage
with this event, as trees have fully leafed out.
Temperatures...well below normal temperatures are expected for
Tuesday for most areas, then some warming will occur Wed/Thur. By
Friday...afternoon highs could be close to 20 degrees above
normal, with a few record highs possible.
Fog...Areas of fog area possible at times through Thursday
morning, especially in the higher elevations.
Friday night through Monday...A moist southwesterly flow aloft
will set up over MT. With upper level disturbances moving
northward through the region, expect periods of showers and
thunderstorms. With the airmass becoming fairly unstable at times,
some strong/severe storms will be possible this weekend into early
next week. Some storms could also produce heavy rainfall. Brusda
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 46 52 42 67 / 30 70 60 10
CTB 41 47 39 61 / 70 80 70 20
HLN 46 54 43 69 / 30 40 40 10
BZN 39 55 38 67 / 60 20 40 10
WYS 33 47 26 57 / 80 60 30 0
DLN 39 52 33 65 / 20 10 10 0
HVR 49 55 43 65 / 10 70 80 50
LWT 44 53 39 63 / 10 60 50 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus...Hill...Liberty.
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Tuesday
night Broadwater...Cascade...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith
Basin...Meagher.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT
Wednesday Broadwater...Cascade...Judith Basin...Meagher.
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.
Flood highlights continue until further notice.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.
&&
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls