Rip Current in California, June 14 to 15, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
926 PM PDT Mon Jun 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong and gusty westerly winds will continue over the mountains and
deserts this evening, then turn offshore as a trough passes to
the north. The offshore, north winds could be briefly strong and
gusty in the San Bernardino Mountains late tonight. It will be
warmer inland through midweek, before another trough develops
along the West Coast Friday through the weekend. This will again
bring gusty winds to the mountains and deserts, and cooler weather
well inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Update:

Marine layer stratus is filling into much of the valleys and most
of Orange County except the northern areas, but this likely will
fill in with the coastal eddy going.

West winds continue gusty especially through the San Gorgonio Pass
and into the Coachella Valley. Thousand Palms is gusting to 35
mph currently. Winds are higher in the rural areas such as
Whitewater with a gust to 62 mph. Winds will become northerly with
winds increasing along the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino
County mountains with peak gusts of 40-50 mph expected in the
wind-prone locales. No changes were needed to the forecast this
evening.

Previous Discussion:

Satellite imagery at midday shows a classic eddy circulation
covering the CA Bight, with slow/partial clearing over coastal
areas. The clouds and deeper marine layer have kept some inland
areas upwards of 15F cooler than yesterday. The sfc pressure
gradient across the region is slowly increasing diurnally, which in
turn has caused an increase in the westerly winds. Peak gusts in the
wind-prone pass areas were 45-55 MPH at 1:00 PM PST. Wind Advisories
remain in effect for the San Diego and Riverside County Mts, and the
San Diego County deserts through late evening. Another Wind Advisory
goes into effect this evening for developing north winds over the
San Bernardino Mts through Tuesday morning.

Even though the coastal clouds will likely thin a bit more today,
complete clearing is unlikely before clouds reform and spread back
inland tonight. Tomorrow will be much warmer inland, especially over
the Inland Empire, where 90s are expected by afternoon. After Tue
morning, the marine layer will shrink, keeping it's associated
night/morning low clouds, mostly over the coastal strip.

A trough moving through the Great Basin will maintain the strong and
gusty winds over the mountains and deserts through this evening. As
the trough moves farther east, building high pressure in it's wake
will force a brief period of offshore flow later tonight and Tuesday
morning. This will scour out the marine layer, mainly over the
Inland Empire, but the recovering thermal gradient should keep most
other areas of the coastal basin with a shallow marine layer or more
mixed relative humidity environment. By Wed/Thu, daytime highs will
be 5-10F above average, except along the coast where the marine
environment will rule.

The West Coast trough should peak in amplitude sometime over the
weekend, then slowly weaken, but remain with an axis along the West
coast much of next week. There is high confidence this will bring a
cooler weekend for the entire region with moderate to strong onshore
flow prevailing across out mts/deserts. Ensemble consensus is for
the coolest days to be Sat/Sun, followed by gradual warming inland.
Prevailing, seasonal onshore flow is likely to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
140345Z...Coasts/Valleys...BKN-OVC010-020 in the coastal zones
moving into inland valleys through 13Z Tuesday. CIGS clearing from
KONT through 17Z Tuesday, and clearing from KSNA, KSAN and KCRQ
through through 21Z.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through
Tuesday. NW winds over the mountains and into the deserts through
10Z with gusts 45-55 knots. BLDU near PSP/TRM with local gusts near
30 kts. Moderate to strong up/downdrafts and LLWS expected over/east
of the mountains. Winds will easing by 12Z Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather conditions this week. A Catalina Eddy
will bring prevailing south to southwest winds to the coastal waters
through Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near critical fire weather conditions will continue at times through
tonight for the deserts and the desert slopes of the mountains, with
lowest daytime humidity of 10 to 15 percent and strong, gusty west
winds. Winds will turn northerly over the higher terrain and south
slopes of the San Bernardino/San Gabriel Mountains around midnight
at 20-30 MPH with gusts 35 to 40 MPH. These winds will weaken late
Tuesday morning.

Conditions will warm, with above average temperatures again
Wednesday and Thursday. Onshore flow will continue a shallow
marine layer along the coast and into the western valleys
moderating the RH. But farther inland, elevated fire weather
conditions will continue along the deserts slopes and into the
deserts much of the week, with lowest daytime humidity around 10
percent, and weak to moderate westerly winds.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Riverside County
     Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County
     Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

     Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for San Bernardino County
     Mountains.

PZ...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...Gregoria (Update)/Previous Discussion (10)
AVIATION/MARINE...Moede