High Wind in Montana, February 27, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
435 AM MST Sun Feb 27 2022

...Update to Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong and gusty west winds will continue to affect favored
downslope locations along the Rocky Mountain Front today and
tonight. Temperatures across the region will continue to gradually
rebound to near or above seasonal averages over the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Weak ridging aloft over Montana will be flattened as a disturbance
moves eastward through southern Canada today. At the surface, a
closed low pressure system in southern Alberta will remain nearly
stationary before ejecting eastward overnight. Strong and gusty
winds continue along the east slopes of the Rocky Mountains and over
the adjacent plains today and tonight before diminishing for a short
period early Monday. This will be quickly followed by the
development of another surface low pressure system for a resumption
of strong and gusty winds Monday afternoon and night. It appears
that the current wind highlights (a warning for today/tonight and a
watch for Monday afternoon and night) have a good handle on this
situation and no changes will be made at this time. With gusty winds
prevailing over the region for the next few days, temperatures will
continue to moderate and climb well above seasonal averages by
Tuesday. Additionally, a continuous flow of Pacific moisture in the
westerly flow aloft will bring periods of precipitation to the
mountains of the Continental Divide today through Wednesday. Some
precipitation could also move out over the plains of Central Montana
at times with forecast models favoring daytime rain due to elevated
temperatures.

Diagnostic models and ensembles are in good agreement indicating
that the upper level pattern will become much more active
Wednesday night through next weekend. A moderately strong trough
is expected to move into the West Coast Wednesday night and
Thursday before stalling out over the Desert Southwest Thursday
night. Behind this system, a secondary trough sweeps southeastward
from the Gulf of Alaska and merges with the first system.
Together, these waves act to carve out a large, broad, and deep
upper level trough over all of the western USA. This pattern will
be favorable for another extended period of colder and wetter
conditions for all of Montana. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
435 AM MST Sun Feb 27 2022 (27/12Z TAF period)

An increasingly strong westerly flow aloft will continue to bring
mid and high level clouds over the region today through Monday
morning. Periods of rain and snow can be expected over the mountains
of the Continental Divide with mountains obscured through the
forecast period. Strong and gusty winds will prevail along the east
slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front and over the immediate adjacent
plains but the remainder of the forecast area can expect only
moderate winds. However, mountain wave turbulence and areas of low
level wind shear should be expected. mpj

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  30  50  39 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  42  28  46  35 /  10  10  20  30
HLN  41  26  50  38 /  10  10  10  30
BZN  36  18  45  31 /   0  10   0  10
WYS  28   5  34  18 /  20  30  20  20
DLN  38  20  46  31 /   0   0  10  20
HVR  47  29  49  37 /  10   0  10  30
LWT  44  28  47  37 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 AM MST Monday Eastern
Glacier...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
Eastern Glacier...Judith Basin...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls