NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 3, 3:52 AM EST, 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 3, 3:52 AM EST, 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
352 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front pushes south through the area late this
evening, then stalls across North Carolina overnight. Low
pressure develops along the front and deepens as it tracks
northeast across eastern North Carolina late tonight and Monday
morning. Canadian high pressure builds into the area through the
middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 125 AM EST Monday...
Very active next 24 hr period as winter comes back with a
vengeance. First, the cold front, which just moved through
Wakefield and Norfolk continues to push south overnight. Second,
low pressure has developed across far NE GA tonight and will
track NE across the Carolinas through this morning, moving
offshore this afternoon. This track along with strong CAA and
ample moisture results in a widespread mdt- hvy pcpn event with
a change over to wet snow across most of VA/ern MD. Exact track
of the low along with the boundary layer temps makes this a
tricky forecast. Expect a variety of conditions from hvy rain to
locally hvy wet snow, gusty winds, and perhaps an isolated
storm across NE NC this morning.
Expect widespread rain to overspread the area through the
morning with falling temps. Data suggests pcpn stay mostly
liquid all night except for a mix or changeover to wet snow aftr
09Z NW of RIC. Lows in the lower 30s nw to 40s SE.
Data show pcpn quickly mixes with and changes over the wet snow Mon
morning across the nrn half of the fa. There could a brief period of
sleet during this transition, but this is not significant for the
event. Best lift/omega progged btwn 12Z-18Z where the heaviest
pcpn will fall. In addition, hints of CSI is psbl as
fgen forcing maxes out. Upshot is the possibility of some
thunder snow as the systm wraps up. The low track will allow for
a narrow warm sector to develop across ern NC and psbly into
sern VA where SPC shows a minimal risk for strong tstms btwn
12Z-18Z, thus added slgt chc thunder to the sern most zones Mon
morn. QPF of 1 to 2 inches will put a dent in the local drought
conditions. As the low pulls offshore, thicknesses crash towards
the coast resulting in some snow all the way to the coast
before ending arnd sunset Mon. Little if any temp rise Mon
except when pcpn intensity lightens up. Readings hover in the
low- mid 30s. Saving grace will be the warm temps of late. It
will take some QPF to overcome the warm ground. With road temps
currently in the low-mid 60s, it will take a while for road
temps to cool as well. Pcpn intensity/column cooling will tell
all come this time tomorrow.
Given the above, a winter storm warning is now in effect along and
north of a FVX-RIC-SBY line (accumulations of 3-6 with locally
higher amounts. A winter weather advisory has been issued for
about a 2 county zone farther to the south for 2-4 inches. Could
see a minimal accumulation to the coast, but no headline there
attm. Wind gusts aoa 40 mph may require a wind advsry near the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EST Sunday...
Clearing/cold Mon night with diminishing winds. Any
snow/standing water will freeze so traveling could remain a
problem well into Tues. Lows mid teens-lwr 20s except 25-30
along the se beaches. (Arnd 10 at LKU if winds decouple over a
new snowpack). Sunny/cold Tues as high pressure moves overhead.
Went lower than guid given a potential snow cover. Highs mid-upr
30s except 40-45 srn zones. Fair/pt cloudy Tues night. Lows upr
teens-mid 20s except arnd 30 sern beaches.
Models cont to show a coastal trof Wed resulting in sct rain
showers over the east. Will carry slight PoP from the bay on
east towards the coast. Highs mid 40s nw to near 60 se. Fair/pt
cloudy Wed night. Lows in the 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EST Sunday...
Next systm approaches from the sw Thurs but now appears pcpn
holds off until Thurs night. Increasing clouds. Highs mid 40s
north- mid 50s south. There is model disagreement with the next
systm both in track and intensity Thurs night as it moves ne
across rgn, then pushes offshore Fri. The difference will lead
to p-type issues but with much less QPF. Will carry chc PoPs for
a rain shower mixing with or changing to snow shower scenario
for now. Lows Thurs night 25-30 north/west, 30-35 south/east.
Pcpn ends Fri morning then clearing/cold as another Canadian
high pressure builds in from the nw. Highs Fri mid 30s-mid 40s.
Clr/cold Fri night. Lows 15-20 except mid 20s se coast.
Sunny/cold Sat. Highs upr 30s-mid 40s.
Another systm is progged to cross the area Sun. Expect this one
to be mainly rain except a rain/snow mix across the NW Sun
morning. Highs in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 AM EST Monday...
Very active forecast over the next 18 hours as a strong cold
front has just moved trough ORF and continues to drop south.
Meanwhile, a deepening low in NE GA pushes across NC today
before pushing offshore this afternoon. Precip fills back in
this overnight from S to N with widespread IFR CIGS developing
after around 9z. Strong CAA will send temps plunging into the
30s early Monday morning (inland) with the pcpn mixing with
then changing to wet snow (psbly hvy at times) Mon morning at
both RIC/SBY. Mixed pcpn may make it all the way to the coast
this afternoon before tapering off late this afternoon into
early this evening. Winds are SW ~10 kt at ECG (south of the
front) and N/NNE 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt elsewhere. Winds
increase to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt tonight before
increasing to 20-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt near the coast and
gusts 25-30 kt inland this morning into early this afternoon.
The strong winds will overlap the precip including the snow
(possibly heavy at times) resulting in low VIS of 1/4-1/2 SM or
less. VFR conditions return Mon night with temps dropping into
the teens and 20s resulting in any standing water turning into
black ice.
OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions conditions continue Tues through early Wed as
high pressure builds into the area. A few rain showers are
possible along the coast Wed as a trough of low pressure
develops.
&&
.MARINE...
Latest Obs reflect increasing NE winds 15 to 25 kt across the waters
this morning. To the south, early morning WV Sat imagery nicely
depicts rapidly deepening complex low pressure from NE GA to the
western Carolinas. Conditions will continue to deteriorate across
the waters this morning,with dangerous conditions across the local
waters today and into tonight. Deepening low to the south slowly
lifts along the coastal Carolinas this morning, pushing NE just
offshore of the VA Capes through the aftn. NNE winds ramp up to 25-
35 kt with gusts to 40-50 kt later this morning, winds back to the
NNW with the deepening low swinging offshore, with gusts of 50-55 kt
possible over the southern coastal waters this aftn. Storm Warnings
are now in effect for all of our Atlantic coastal waters, as well as
the lower Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort. Otherwise, Gale
Warnings remain in effect for the remainder of the waters into this
evening. Waves have been a bit later in building than previously
modeled, but should still quickly build to 4-6 ft by sunrise,
building to 5 to 8 ft by this aftn. Seas building to 8-14 feet by
late this aftn and evening. Winds slowly ramp back down below
Storm/Gale thresholds this evening, with SCAs likely to be needed
for Mon night into Tue with ongoing cold air advection.
Sub-SCA conditions are then expected late Tue into Thu, though
seas will likely take into later Tue or Wed morning to subside
below 5 ft over southern waters. Another cold front approaches
by late week, with another round of SCA likely to be needed
Friday into Saturday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 705 PM EST Sunday...
As of 345 AM EST Monday...
A combination of higher astronomical tides and deepening sfc low
pressure will bring the potential for minor to moderate coastal
flooding, over the middle and lower Ches Bay, coastal NE NC, and the
lower Eastern Shore, starting with the high tide cycle later this
morning. Issued CF Warning south of New Point Comfort (including
Northampton VA on the eastern shore and the NE NC N OBX). A Coastal
Flood Advy is now in place over the middle Peninsula and Lancaster
county, VA over to Accomack, VA and the MD Beaches (OCMD area).
Extended the Coastal Flood Warning over the N OBX through tonight's
high tide cycle, but for the most part, with winds tapering down
later today and especially tonight, have not gone into this
evening's high tide cycle just yet. However, expect additional
headlines may be needed later for tonight's tide cycle at least over
the lower Bay. We will be re-evaluating that later this morning.
Have also issued High Surf Advisories for Northampton VA south to
the N OBX for rough surf and seas building to 7 to 10 ft in the surf
zone, resulting in at least minor beach and dune erosion.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 350 AM EST Monday...
Richmond set a record high temperature Sunday.
Salisbury set a new record high and record high minimum
temperature for Sunday.
Elizabeth City also set a new high min temp Sunday. See RERRIC,
RERSBY, and RERECG for more information.
Details on 2021 climate are forthcoming by midweek. However for
now, here's a few items of note regarding preliminary Dec.
totals and the annual climate from our Climate Program Leader:
Richmond: Dec avg temp 48.9 (3rd warmest), Annual avg temp
60.4, (9th warmest on record)
Norfolk: Dec avg temp 49.6 (Not in top 10), Annual avg temp
62.2 (9th warmest on record)
Salisbury, MD: Dec avg temp 46.3 (5th warmest on record),
Annual avg temp 58.8,(4th warmest on record)
Eliz. City, NC: 52.2 (6th warmest on record), Annual avg temp
62.2 (not in top 10).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
this evening for MDZ024-025.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MDZ025.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
MDZ021>023.
NC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
for NCZ015>017-102.
High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
Tuesday for NCZ102.
Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EST tonight for NCZ102.
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ048-
060>062-064-068-069-083-509>513-515>518.
Coastal Flood Warning from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM EST this
afternoon for VAZ089-090.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
this evening for VAZ084-086-089-090-099-523>525.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM this morning to noon EST today
for VAZ093-095>098-100-523>525.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
for VAZ095-098-100.
High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
Tuesday for VAZ098-100.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ099.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
VAZ075>078-085-519>522.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST
this afternoon for VAZ065>067-079>082-087-088-514.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
afternoon for VAZ078-084>086.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652-654.
Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ632-634-656-
658.
Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633-638.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-631.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MPR/RMM
NEAR TERM...JDM/RMM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...