A strong upper level low moved from the Midwest into the Mid Atlantic from January 2nd into the 3rd. Strong storms to isolated severe storms preceded the arrival of the low along with a broad area of 2 to 4 inches of rain along United States Highway 1 corridor, producing flooding around the Triangle region of central North Carolina.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A strong upper level low moved from the Midwest into the Mid Atlantic from January 2nd into the 3rd. Strong storms to isolated severe storms preceded the arrival of the low along with a broad area of 2 to 4 inches of rain along United States Highway 1 corridor, producing flooding around the Triangle region of central North Carolina. Strong sustained gradient winds were felt over much of the area, with numerous gusts of 35 to 50 miles per hour. As the low moved through the area, rain mixed with and changed to snow with several inches of snow reported across portions of the northwest and far northern Piedmont.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 3, 3:56 AM EST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 356 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure will strengthen while moving across and offshore the Carolinas today. Cold high pressure will follow for tonight and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 356 AM Monday... ...Forsyth and Guilford Counties added to the Winter Weather Advisory... Overview: The system is well underway with bands and pockets of heavy rain falling across central NC, for what seems has been nearly the past 24 hours. At 08Z, a 998mb sfc low pressure was located over upstate SC and quickly moving to the ENE. The closed upper low was a bit farther west over northern GA. The sfc low remains forecast to reach the Charlotte area by 11z, eastern NC by 13 or 14Z, then moving off the northern Outer Banks by 16Z. Meanwhile, a backdoor front was analyzed at 08Z right along the VA border and is gradually slipping south. It's along this boundary that the sfc low will track this morning. As the low exits to the east of any given part of central NC, the low level flow will turn to the north, thus beginning the process of rapid CAA and a gradual p-type transition with time this morning, particularly across the northern half of central NC. In the meantime, heavy rain and possible flooding remain possible across all of central NC, a severe weather threat to the east and southeast of the low, and finally a period of gusty winds on the back side of the low. Details regarding each hazard will be separated out below. Heavy rain and flooding: Since approx this time yesterday, nearly all of central NC has seen around an inch of rain so far, with a swath of around 2 inches across the southern and southeast Triangle region. Additional bands of heavy rain are expected to move up into our area from the south and southwest. Vigorous ascent invof and ahead of the sfc low, coupled with ample warm sector moisture, will set the stage for moderate to deep convection south of the backdoor cold front, with a broad swatch of stratiform rain north of the front. This risk for heavy rain will continue until the sfc low exits to our east. Until then, an additional 1-2 inches of rain on top of what we've already seen is possible. Thus, a flood watch remains in effect for all of central NC through 10 AM this morning. Svr wx threat: The risk for an isold svr tstms or two will exist to the east and southeast of the low center, where elevated low level helicity coupled with robust deep layer shear exists. The element in question has always been the instability, and right now the best instability is located along/off the NC coast and south across central and southeast SC. While the opportunity to advect some of that instability northward exists, that window of opportunity is really brief and odd don't necessarily favor that happening. Nevertheless, given the aforementioned shear and dynamics of this event, we can't rule out an isold brief tornado or damaging wind gust with any of the stronger convective cells that lift north into our southeast zones between now and 14Z this morning when the low exits our CWA. Wintry Precip: Models continue to show strong CAA in the wake of the exiting sfc low, with enough low level cooling to support a transition to a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow occurring in the precip swath assoc with the upper low. Locations with the best chance to see sleet and snow will be along and north of Hwy 64. South of 64, it may simply be too warm. As far as how much... accumulations will be largely limited by how unseasonably warm it's been during the past week and how warm the ground is. Thus, accumulation potential will be mostly rate-driven. That is, the best chance for accumulating snow will occur when the precip rate is more intense to overcome the warm ground. Light precip rates will not offer much accumulation potential. The transition to sleet then snow is expected to occur first in the Triad area around 7 or 8 AM, locations north of the Triangle around 9 AM, the Triangle region around 11 AM, and finally the northern Coastal Plain by Noon or 1 PM. At this time, we believe that around 1 inch of snow accumulation (which is our winter weather advisory criteria) is possible across the VA border counties north of the Triangle, and the northern half of Forsyth and northern half of Guilford Counties. the accumulation gradient will be fairly steep, thus, much lesser amounts to the south of the aforementioned counties. It's worth noting that where notable accumulations occur, it will be mostly on grassy areas, and travel impacts should mostly be confined to elevated roads and bridges, with a considerable amount of quickly melting snow and slushy conditions. The snow will end across all of central NC by mid-afternoon, with very fast melting in its wake. Gusty winds: An impressive pressure gradient was noted on the western side of the deepening low on the 08Z analysis. This gradient will continue to increase as the low further deepens, so when the low exits to our east, look for N/NW winds to rapidly increase, with wind gusts in excess of 40 mph developing (as early at 11Z across our Triad zones), and remaining possible across the most of central NC through the rest of the morning hours and into the early afternoon. Given how wet the ground is now, it's possible that many, if not numerous trees may fall due to these wind gusts. Localized and isold power outages are possible today. A wind advisory remains in effect for all of central NC through 4 PM. Tonight: Skies will begin to clear out in the wake of the passage of the upper trough. CAA will continue, and sfc high pressure will build in from the west. Winds may even diminish before sunshine, all of which will result in very cold low temp readings tonight. Lows tonight will range from the upper teens north near the VA border to mid 20s south. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday... A 1030+ mb surface high will settle over the area on Tuesday, with general zonal flow aloft. This will allow for quiet weather with ample sunshine for Tuesday, though high temperatures will be in the 40s, some 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. The surface high will move offshore Tuesday night into Wednesday, meanwhile the mid/upper flow pattern will begin to become more amplified as a large scale trough over the east-central U.S begins to develop. This will allow for increasing temps and cloud cover. An associated cold front will move into the area on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. However, with lack of any significant moisture return ahead of the front moving into the area on Wednesday evening/night expect dry conditions will continue. High temps Wednesday are expected to rebound back into the 50s, with even some reading near 60 across the far southeast possible. Low temps will follow a similar trend, with lows Wednesday morning ranging from the lower to mid 20s north to the lower to mid 30s southeast, with lows on Thursday morning several categories higher, generally ranging from the lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s southeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 350 AM Monday... Shortwave energy is expected to dive south and eastward on the backside and into the base of the aforementioned l/w trough. Wednesday into Thursday, driving another reinforcing cold front through the area on Thursday night into Friday. Differences remain between the GFS and ECMWF on the actual strength and track of the mid/upper level disturbance, but the main trend is for a bit warmer and less precip on Thursday night/Friday morning. Thus, will only keep a small area of rain/snow in the climatological favored northwest/northern Piedmont for early Friday morning. Dry weather is expected to return for Friday into at least the first half of the weekend as surface high pressure quickly moves across the area. Yet another front is forecast to approach the area by Sunday, possibly resulting in a return to unsettled weather. High temps for the medium range portion of the forecast are expected to be on a roller coaster, from the 50s Thursday, back into the 30s and 40s for Friday and Saturday, before warming back into the 50s and lower 60s by Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 AM Monday... Multiple aviation hazards -- including low cigs, low vsbys in heavy precip, and very strong gusty winds with possible LLWS -- are expected over the next 12-18 hrs, with improvement thereafter. In short, aircraft will encounter dangerous aviation conditions through this morning, with the worst conditions 09z until 15z, and smaller craft in particular may find aircraft handling particularly treacherous during this time. Apart from some MVFR areas in our NE and far NW, conditions are mostly IFR (cigs, with mostly MVFR to VFR vsbys despite widespread rain), and IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to hold through the morning hours areawide. A rapidly strengthening low pressure center over GA will wobble northeastward, crossing southern and eastern portions of central NC between 10z and 15z this morning. A solid deck of rain over the area currently will trend downward in intensity at FAY after 09z but will likely persist at other sites through the morning. A trend to a rain/snow mix or briefly mostly snow (with potential IFR vsbys) is expected around 13z at INT/GSO and around 15z at RDU, before precip ends entirely after 18z in the W and 22z in the E. FAY may see an isolated strong storm or two 09z-13z. Finally, very strong and gusty winds will impact all terminals through this mornings, with surface winds from the NE and N across northern sites but from the SE and S at FAY, and all locations have a risk of low level winds shear about 10z-15z with 1500-2000 ft winds up to 50 kts, from the NE at INT/GSO/RDU/RWI except from the S at FAY. As the low passes ENE of the forecast area later this morning, surface winds will become uniformly from the NW, still gusty but diminishing after nightfall. Looking beyond 06z Tue, behind this strong storm, VFR conditions are expected to hold through Thu morning, followed by a risk of sub-VFR conditions and precipitation (perhaps wintry at INT/GSO/RDU) late Thu through Fri morning as another storm system crosses the region. VFR conditions should return Fri. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ007-008- 021-022. && SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...BSD LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Hartfield
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 437 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 NCZ007-008-021-022-041030- Person-Granville-Forsyth-Guilford- 437 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Weather Advisory. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions to the National Weather Service in Raleigh as soon as it is safe to do so. NCZ009>011-023>027-038>041-041030- Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Davidson- Randolph-Chatham-Wake- 437 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. In addition, scattered thunderstorms between 4 AM and 9 AM will be capable of producing wind gusts that could result in tree damage. Also, rain is expected to change over to a rain and snow mix or mostly snow for a short time today. A light dusting of snow on elevated and grassy surfaces is possible. However, due to the recent warm conditions, no significant accumulation is expected on pavement, and no major travel concerns are expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions to the National Weather Service in Raleigh as soon as it is safe to do so. NCZ028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089-041030- Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne- Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 437 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. In addition, scattered thunderstorms between 4 AM and 9 AM will be capable of producing wind gusts that could result in tree damage. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions to the National Weather Service in Raleigh as soon as it is safe to do so.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
511 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022
NCZ024-025-040-041-076-031045-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Orange NC-
511 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Orange, northern Lee, western Wake, eastern Chatham and Durham
Counties through 545 AM EST...
At 509 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goldston, or 7 miles north of Sanford, moving northeast at 80 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Chapel Hill, Sanford, Hillsborough, Pittsboro,
Carrboro, Goldston and RDU International.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3608 7879 3607 7878 3607 7875 3606 7863
3604 7861 3602 7854 3543 7908 3555 7936
3612 7910
TIME...MOT...LOC 1009Z 206DEG 70KT 3559 7922
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
GIHPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
548 AM EST MON JAN 3 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0444 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NE WINSTON-SALEM 36.14N 80.23W
01/03/2022 M47 MPH FORSYTH NC ASOS
&&
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</html>PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
554 AM EST MON JAN 3 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0545 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SE HASTY 35.65N 79.43W
01/03/2022 CHATHAM NC EMERGENCY MNGR
ONE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN IN THE BONLEE
AREA, SOUTH OF SILER CITY.
&&
7PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
610 AM EST MON JAN 3 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0543 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE COLFAX 36.11N 79.94W
01/03/2022 M51 MPH GUILFORD NC ASOS
&&
7PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
613 AM EST MON JAN 3 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0449 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE ALAMANCE 36.05N 79.47W
01/03/2022 M45 MPH ALAMANCE NC ASOS
&&
7The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:14 UTC.
9 flash flood, 8 winter weather, 2 thunderstorm wind, 2 tornado, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding was reported along Old Mason Farm Road.
Flash flooding was reported at Oakwood drive at Cleland Drive.
Flash flooding was reported along Umstead Drive in between Pritchard Avenue and Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard.
Flash flooding was reported along eastbound lanes of I-40, near the Highway 751 exit. A car was stranded in the flood water at this location as well.
Numerous trees were reported down across the county.
An EF-0 tornado briefly touched down two miles southwest of Coats, North Carolina.|It was the ground for about two minutes before dissipating. The tornado resulted in roof, window, and siding damage to several homes. In addition, about a dozen trees were either snapped or uprooted, at least two fences were blown over, and at least two |outbuildings or sheds were destroyed or rolled over.
One tree was reported down along Johnston Pond Road.
Flash flooding was reported along Highway 1 in northern Wake County.
Flash flooding was reported along he entrance ramp to Western Boulevard.
An EF-1 tornado briefly touched down around 2 miles south-southwest of Newton Grove.|It was the ground for less than one minute before dissipating. The tornado resulted in substantial roof and structural damage to two hog barns.
Flash flooding was reported underneath the I-440 overpass along Western Boulevard.
Flash flooding was reported along I-440, just to the east of the Pool Road exit.
Flash flooding was reported on I-40 at exit 291.
Snowfall amounts ranged from a trace to 1 inch across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from a trace to 1 inch across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from one to four inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from half an inch to two inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from one to three inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from one to two inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from one to two inches across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from half an inch to two inches across the county.
Storm total rainfall of 3.02 inches was reported near Spring Forest Road Park.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for North Carolina, 2022Warnings in North Carolina, January 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1004724, 1004725, 1004726, 1004727, 1004221, 1004605, 1004602, 1004728, 1004729, 1004222, 1004730, 1004731, 1004732, 1004635, 1004636, 1004637, 1004638, 1004640, 1004641, 1004642, 1004643, 997621.