Thunderstorms moving through Saginaw Bay produced wind gusts to 50 knots.
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The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms moving through Saginaw Bay produced wind gusts to 50 knots.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 11, 5:11 AM EST, 2 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 611 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 .AVIATION... Two features of interest for aviation purposes this morning, with a cold front and associated IFR to LIFR fog sagging south toward MBS and ongoing moisture advection along and south of FNT. For the southern terminals, upstream observations continue to trend toward SCT low cloud coverage on the outer periphery of the cloud shield. Similarly, rather unimpressive ceiling/visibility response to ongoing shower activity such that VFR conditions seem reasonable for much of the morning hours with TEMPO groups to cover more isolated pockets of MVFR. Slower progression of the frontal boundary toward MBS has kept VFR conditions in place, although do expect this feature to reach the terminal within the next few hours. Maintained a more optimistic approach with low end MVFR cigs/vis as trends will be competing with sunrise. Relatively stagnant conditions before s howers move into the terminals from south to north mid afternoon and evening, which will effectively lower ceilings and visibilities. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but minimal confidence precludes a mention in this TAF issuance. For DTW...Isolated pockets of MVFR stratus embedded within otherwise VFR this morning will lift to VFR by afternoon. Showers will increase this afternoon leading to a reduction in ceilings and visibilities by late evening. A few embedded thunderstorms are plausible within this activity this afternoon and evening. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through Sunday. * Low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 DISCUSSION... The mid level circulation clearly evident on water vapor imagery now over eastern South Dakota will phase with the mid level trough extending from the wrn Great Lakes into ern Kansas today. This will result in the development of a closed mid level circulation over the IA/IL border region by this evening. This upper low and associated surface reflection will quickly occlude over nrn Illinois tonight. It will then slowly track across the MI/IN/OH border region Mon and Mon night. Building mid level heights across the upper Midwest will then force this system across the ern Great Lakes and into srn Quebec/update New York Tues/Tues night. Deep layer moisture advection has already been ongoing into Se Mi in advance of the upper trough. Remnant boundary layer convergence along a sfc trough essentially bisecting Se Mi has been sustaining scattered showers overnight. Diurnal heating will result in some degree of boundary layer destabilization today, with 0-1km ML forecast to rise to 500-800 J/kg. While this degree of instability will limit any severe risk, the moist ambient airmass (with precip water up to 1.7 inches) combined with weak boundary layer convergence and mid level height falls will result in numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms today. The resulting clouds and precip will also suppress daytime highs to the 70s. As the mid level low evolves today, a respectable mid level deformation region will develop. The strongest ascent will remain focused across srn WI and srn Lake Mi today before becoming focused across nrn Lower Mi and ern Wi on Monday. There will be a region of enhanced mid level system relative isentropic ascent that will preceded the low level occluded front as it lifts from south to north across the forecast area tonight into Mon morning. The progressive nature of the ascent across Se Mi will prove a limiting factor for excessive rainfall (widespread amounts over 2 inches) with the exception of perhaps some isolated locations that receive a little more enhanced convective response this afternoon/evening. The northward progress of the ascent is however forecast to slow as it lifts into the Saginaw Valley/Central Michigan overnight into Monday morning. This will support a potential for a longer duration of forced ascent in this region. While there are a few ensemble members that have 24-hour rainfall totals up to 2.5 inches in central Mi, there is not enough support to justify forecast rainfall totals over 2 inches across the Saginaw Valley at this time. Most of the forecast area will be within the mid level dry slot following the occluded front on Monday, thus limiting precip potential. Shallow post frontal cold air advection and a deepening frontal inversion will likely hold a good deal of cloud cover across the area on Monday and limit daytime heating. This will support relatively cool temps with highs mainly in the 60s and low 70s. Precip chances will then remain mainly in the chance category on Tuesday under the lingering effect of the departing upper low. Building mid level heights and sfc high pressure influencing the region by mid week will then lead to dry and relatively warm conditions Wed into Fri. MARINE... The weak high pressure that has brought favorable marine conditions the past few days will continue to move away from the area. Unsettled conditions will take over as low pressure develops over the mid-Mississippi Valley and stalls across the Great lakes on Sunday and into the beginning of next week. Rain, along with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, will be possible during this timeframe. Showers likely linger through the first half of the week as the low slowly wobbles across the Great Lakes. HYDROLOGY... A developing low pressure system across nrn Illinois today will continue to drive deep layer moisture into Se Mi today. This combined with weak daytime instability and a lingering sfc trough overhead will result in numerous to widespread showers. A more organized region of rain will then lift from south to north across the area ahead of an occluded front tonight into Monday morning. The stronger and more persistent ascent is forecast to occur across the Saginaw Valley region into Central Michigan, which includes the Chippewa and Tittabawassee River basins. Total rainfall today through Monday is forecast to range from a half inch from Monroe to Port Huron and up to an inch and a half at Midland. The 90th percentile of ensemble QPF data does have up to two and a half inches across Midland and Central Michigan which could pose a risk for minor flooding if that higher end amount materializes. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && AVIATION.....MV DISCUSSION...SC MARINE.......SS HYDROLOGY....SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 349 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-120800- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 349 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected today in advance of a developing low pressure system over the western Great Lakes. A little more widespread rain is forecast tonight. Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe and are only likely to produce a brief period of intense rainfall rates as they move from south to north at 15 MPH. Rainfall tonight may produce a little longer duration of moderate rainfall which may lead to some localized flooding concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Showers and some lingering thunderstorms are possible on Monday, mainly during the morning. Locally heavy rainfall will again be of concern. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-120800- Lake St Clair- Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 349 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Lake St Clair. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected today in advance of a developing low pressure system over the western Great Lakes. A little more widespread rain is forecast tonight. Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe and are only likely to produce a brief period of intense rainfall rates as they move from south to north at 15 knots. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Showers and some lingering thunderstorms are possible on Monday, mainly during the morning. Locally heavy rainfall will again be of concern. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. SC
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 136 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:10 UTC.
2 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1053246, 1053243.