Georgia, 2022

Rip Current in Georgia, September 11, 2022

September 11, 2022 · NWS JAX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Borderline moderate to high rip current risk was in place at local beaches with surf/breakers in the 3-5 ft range with long period easterly swells.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.

Borderline moderate to high rip current risk was in place at local beaches with surf/breakers in the 3-5 ft range with long period easterly swells.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 11, 11:55 AM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 11, 11:55 AM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1255 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022

Fog and low cloudiness are burning off as the sun angle increases.
HRRR and ARW models on track with current convection over Apalachee
Bay and expect convection to break out over the I-75 area later
this morning and sweep east. Have an MWS out for the coastal
waters to alert boaters to the afternoon and evening convection as
it may cover inlets and river entrances for a few hours about the
time most are returning from offshore fishing/runs to the Gulf
Stream.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022

Early morning surface analysis depicts a weakening frontal
boundary that remains stalled just north of the Altamaha River in
southeast GA. Meanwhile, high pressure (1024 millibars) was
positioned along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Otherwise, a cold front
was diving southeastward across the Great Lakes, the Mid-
Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains states.
Aloft...ridging continues to build off the southeastern seaboard,
while a potent upstream shortwave was plunging southeastward
across the Upper Midwest. This digging trough has absorbed the
previously cutoff trough that was over Louisiana, with the filling
remnants of this feature now accelerating across the Tennessee
Valley. Deep south-southwesterly flow prevails between the
offshore ridge and the digging trough over the Upper Midwest, with
this flow continuing to advect tropical moisture from the
southeast Gulf of Mexico into the Deep South. This convergent
southwesterly flow was developing a few isolated batches of low-
topped convection along the FL Big Bend and Nature coasts, with
this activity mostly remaining west and southwest of the Suwannee
River. Mid and high altitude cloudiness has been gradually
thinning during the predawn hours, allowing low stratus ceilings
and patches of locally dense fog to develop across our area.
Temperatures and dewpoints at 08Z were mostly in the 70-75 degree
range, except a few upper 70s at coastal locations.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022

Low stratus and patches of locally dense fog will continue to
expand across our region through sunrise. We will continue to
monitor observations for a possible dense fog advisory for
portions of our area. Fog and low stratus ceilings should then
lift by the mid-morning hours today.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained today as ridging
positioned off the southeastern seaboard only slowly migrates
eastward and a potent shortwave pivots eastward towards Lake
Michigan, with troughing digging through the Ozarks and the lower
Mississippi Valley. A pocket of slightly drier air, with PWATS
just below 2 inches, will exit our region early this afternoon,
with values surging above 2 inches as shortwave energy currently
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico advects northeastward towards
our area by the mid to late afternoon hours. Widely scattered
low-topped convection will continue to move north-northeastward
across southern and western portions of the Suwannee Valley
through the morning hours, with a plume of thicker cirrostratus
emanating to the northeast of this activity across inland
southeast GA. Thicker cloud cover and occasional showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day will keep highs in the mid to
upper 80s across the Suwannee Valley and inland southeast GA.
Several rounds of convection and the potential for backbuilding
and training cells exists across the Suwannee Valley, and a slight
risk of excessive rainfall remains posted for locations west of
Interstate 75 today, where widespread 1-3 inch rainfall amounts
and localized flooding will be possible.

Cloud cover will thin out by the late morning hours for locations
east of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor, with filtered sunshine
through early afternoon allowing highs to climb to around 90. A
slightly looser local pressure gradient should result in an
earlier developing Atlantic sea breeze boundary towards the noon
hour, and this boundary should begin to develop isolated to
scattered convection by the mid-afternoon hours along the I-95
corridor. Outflow boundaries from early afternoon convection
along the I-75 corridor should collide with outflows emanating
from the sea breeze-driven convection to increase convective
coverage and intensity for locations along and east of the U.S.
Highway 301 corridor, with a few storms possibly pulsing and
becoming strong along the U.S.-301 and then I-95 corridors as
another broken squall line develops over the coastal counties late
this afternoon. Stronger thunderstorms may produce downburst winds
of 40-50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. A bigger concern will
be another day of locally heavy downpours, with flooding possible
at urban locations along the I-95 and U.S.-301 corridors if cells
backbuild and train over these locations for an extended period of
time. Rainfall amounts today will generally be in the 0.25-0.75
inch range, but localized amounts of 1-3 inches will also be
possible in this tropically moist weather pattern. Northeastward
storm motion will be slightly slower today, with speeds generally
in the 10-20 mph range.

Convection should once again exit our region towards sunset, but
coverage of overnight convection over the northeast Gulf of
Mexico should be higher tonight ahead of the upstream trough and
associated frontal boundary as southwesterly flow begins to
strengthen. Widely scattered, mainly low-topped convection will
likely migrate through the Suwannee Valley before sunrise on
Monday. Fog and low stratus potential may be limited to inland
southeast GA due to more cloud cover and shower activity over the
Suwannee Valley. Lows will again mostly fall to the low and mid
70s, except a few upper 70s possible at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022

Prevailing flow will continue to be out of the southwest, bringing
moist air and troughing ahead of the dry air boundary to the
northwest. Drier air will start to filter in over the region by
Monday evening, with marginal chances for excessive rainfall for
areas ahead of the frontal boundary primarily over northeast
Florida. Showers and storms will become less widespread on
Tuesday, more so over southeast Georgia, as drier air with PWAT
values dropping to less than 1 to 1.5 inches over much of the
forecast area by Tuesday evening. Daily high temperatures during
this period will reach up into the upper 80s for the beginning of
next week with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the
60s and lower 70s, with cooler temperatures expected for drier
areas behind the frontal boundary in southeast Georgia.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022

Reduced chances for showers and storms will continue into midweek
as drier air extending from out of the north acts to inhibit
convective developments. Chances for showers and storms will rise
towards the latter part of the week with more widespread
thunderstorms developing over northeast Florida, ahead of the
semi-stalled dry frontal boundary, with the highest chances for
storm developments occurring over areas to the south of the I-10
corridor. Daily high temperatures are expected to experience a
mild cooling trend for the latter half of the week, with max temps
dropping slightly below the seasonal average. Overnight low
temperatures are expected to be close to average for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022

Convection is much slower to develop than yesterday, and not
nearly as quick as the mesoscale models indicated earlier today.
Still anticipate convection to develop but less widespread then
earlier thought. Thus will back off a bit on the afternoon tempo
groups and the fog/mist overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022

A stalled frontal boundary positioned just north of the Altamaha
River entrance in southeast GA will dissipate today as high
pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast moves offshore and
weakens. Another round of thunderstorms will likely move
northeastward across our local waters during the late afternoon
hours, with a few stronger thunderstorms containing briefly gusty
winds and frequent lightning strikes possible. Long period swells
will briefly diminish through Monday, with seas of 3 to 4 feet
prevailing both near shore and offshore.

A cold front will then enter the southeastern states by Monday
evening and will push southeastward across the Georgia waters by
Tuesday morning. This front is expected to stall over or just
south of the northeast Florida waters by Tuesday evening, with
light onshore winds expected to develop by midweek. This front
will remain in place through the end of this week, with weak low
pressure potentially developing along this front by Friday.
Another long period ocean swell will migrate through our local
waters from Monday night through Tuesday night, resulting in
building seas that will then subside by Wednesday. Seas of 3-5
feet are expected both near shore and offshore from Monday night
through Tuesday night, with seas then subsiding to 2-4 feet from
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022

Training downpours will be possible beginning later this morning
over western portions of the Suwannee Valley. Localized flooding
will be possible, with 1-3 inches of rainfall expected today in
southern and western portions of the Suwannee Valley. Showers and
possibly a few strong thunderstorms will then traverse the rest of
our area during the mid to late afternoon hours, with localized
flooding possible, especially at urban areas along the I-95
corridor, where 1-2 inches of rainfall may occur in a relatively
short period of time.

River rises continue to be likely into next week across our area,
with minor flooding forecast along mainly middle and upper
portions of the Santa Fe River as well as the St. Marys and lower
Satilla Rivers through the period. River rises are expected for
lower portions of the Santa Fe later this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  88  70  88 /  40  70  10  10
SSI  75  88  74  88 /  50  80  40  30
JAX  72  89  72  88 /  40  80  30  40
SGJ  75  89  73  87 /  40  80  30  50
GNV  72  88  71  88 /  30  90  30  50
OCF  72  89  73  88 /  30  80  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
&&

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.

Rip Current, Coastal Glynn

When
September 11, 1:09 PM EST
Where
Coastal Glynn forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
31.213, -81.494 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A rip current fatality occurred a Gould's Inlet on St. Simons Island.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Rip Current, Coastal Glynn2022-09-11MaleIn WaterDirect

What these are

Rip Current
A narrow, fast current flowing away from the beach that caused a drowning or rescue.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Georgia in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, September 2022

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1052272.