High Wind and Strong Wind in Kansas, December 21 to 22, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
442 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 312 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

A warm front lifting north of the region resulted in low level
veering winds and warm air advection across our region this
morning and early afternoon. As a result, areas of dense fog have
gradually improved to above a quarter mile while freezing fog
deposition has piled up hoar frost on most surfaces. The HRRR
gradually erodes the dense fog from west to east in the afternoon.
A dense fog advisory for dense fog and freezing fog valid until 3
pm is being allowed to expire as visibility should continue to
gradually improve. GOES Sat imagery continues to show an eastward
track to the western edge of the very low cloud cover/fog layer,
and HRRR model soundings showed and drying of the near surface
layer in the T-Td spreads.

Attention then turns to this evening. The cold front slams
through the forecast areas between 00 and 06 UTC / or 6pm and
midnight. The falling temperatures, with dendritic production zone
closer to the ground will lead to efficient light snow given
rapidly increasing snow ratios and saturated column. NAM models
20:1 ratios behind the front while HREF combined probabilities
show the snow isn’t expected to drop visibility to more than areas
of a half mile at times from Wakeeney to DDC and Pratt.
Extreme cold air advection will then be the focus, combining
negative temperature tendency with the very strong gradient winds,
to collapse apparent temperatures to the -20 to -40 range. The
leading edge of the front will arrive per the NAM12 km in the mid
evening, and be through the entire area before midnight.

Gradient winds on Friday will maintain the cold wind chill risk
through the period of Friday morning. Though not as brutally
cold, the wind chills will still be in the warning category -
namely the 20 to 30 below zero area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

By Saturday morning, the 0 to -15 below zero wind chills will
seem relatively balmy as temperatures remain near zero and winds
fall to around 10 mph as high pressure and less gradient plays a
part. Through the weekend, the cold air retreats eastward, as as
southwest boundary layer winds increase, bringing temps back above
freezing. From simply a pattern recognition standpoint, Tuesday
and Wednesday could be relatively warm days with mid level
shortwave ridging showing up in the models, but any warmup doesn’t
look sustained. In the meantime, we’ll look toward Sunday night
and Monday for "some" opportunity for light precipitation, either
rain or snow associated with a fast moving northwest flow
shortwave, somewhere is the central plains. Officially, a dry
forecast and if anything occurs, it wouldn't be significant.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 431 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

Low stratus across eastern portions of the CWA continue to produce
LIFR ceilings and visibility at DDC and HYS with GCK and LBL still
VFR at this time. An approaching cold front will switch winds out
of the north between 03-05Z north to south gusting initially up to
35kts. Winds will increase to 40-45kt gusts after 07-09Z as cold
air advection helps to aid in the strongest mixing to the surface
post frontal passage. Ceilings will remain MVFR to IFR but
uncertainty on how low they will be. Snow will begin to fall
around HYS after 06Z through about 15Z with blowing snow a factor
due to the strong north winds. All other TAF sites will not see
influence to much if any snowfall only carrying VCSH near GCK and
DDC during this same time frame. Ceilings will begin to lift to
VFR after 15Z with improving conditions as the snow and system
lifts to the northeast. However, winds will remain gusting up to
35-40kts through the end of the period before diminishing at the
end towards sunset Thursday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  -9   5  -7  17 /  40  30   0   0
GCK -10   4  -9  16 /  40  30   0   0
EHA  -6   8  -6  19 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  -7   7  -7  18 /  30  20   0   0
HYS -11   2 -10  14 /  90  30   0   0
P28  -2   7  -3  17 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Warning from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to noon
CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-
084>090.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
Thursday for KSZ030-031-043>046.

&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Lowe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
453 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221100-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
453 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 /353 AM MST Wed Dec 21 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong winds, dangerous wind chills and light snow are expected
tonight into Thursday. See the latest winter weather message
(TOPWSWDDC) for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.