Drought in Guam, April 1 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
627 PM ChST Thu Mar 31 2022

.Marianas Synopsis...
Skies are mostly clear across the Marianas this evening with fresh
trade winds, but visible satellite is showing some showers out to
the east, from 148E eastward. Seas are still elevated at the buoys
at just under 9 ft at Ipan and just under 10 ft at Ritidian.

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.Discussion...
Made some adjustments to the forecast, mainly to account for some
uncertainty between the GFS and ECMWF. Have consolidated scattered
showers from Fri night thru Sat night for all four islands, and
have lowered pops to 20 pct for Mon and Mon night as latest models
show dry air at mid-upper levels. But the disturbance passing south
of Guam still looks good to bring scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two to the region Fri night through Sat night, though
support for Friday night is weaker in the latest models. After Sat
night, things dry out pretty quickly, and next week looks rather dry
through Friday before a possible disturbance next Saturday.

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.Marine...
With seas still elevated at the buoys, have beefed up combined seas
for tonight into Friday with what few ECMWF wave grids are available,
supplemented with GFS WW3 grids plus a foot. This keeps the High
Surf Advy going through tonight, along with the Small Craft Advy,
while the high rip risk goes through Friday afternoon. After that,
winds and seas should subside enough for those advisories to come
down--but not by much. Will need to keep an eye on the buoys over
the weekend into early next week.

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.Fire weather...
Widespread wetting rain, over an inch in some parts of the island
over the last three days, has put a damper on Red Flag Warnings for
a couple of days, and we could see more showers by Saturday. Thus,
have cancelled the Red Flag for now, and will closely monitor drying
conditions, mainly after Saturday night.

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.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
A weak tropical disturbance just east of Chuuk is expected pass
through Chuuk overnight bringing isolated showers. There was some
decent convection earlier in the day but now organization and
convection with this system remain weak. Models indicate heavier
showers passing north of the coastal waters of Chuuk with cloud
cover decreasing by late Saturday.

Over Kosrae, conditions are clearing for fair weather Friday and for
Pohnpei we should see some improved weather on Saturday. An
extensive ITCZ is shown over Majuro on Saturday, Kosrae on Sunday,
and Pohnpei on Monday. Expecting scattered showers for the rain
events associated with the ITCZ with possible locally heavy showers
on Monday for Majuro and Pohnpei as the ITCZ strengthens with a trade
surge sitting just north of the ITCZ. Still too early to tell, but
the trade surge looks to impact Chuuk on Monday but remain north
of the other islands.

For tonight and Friday a trade surge will produce stronger winds and
hazardous conditions for small craft at Majuro. Combined seas tonight
are at 6 to 8 ft, 7 to 9 at Chuuk, then we expect a foot increase
as the weather comes in over the weekend.

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.Western Micronesia...
Locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are in store tonight
for Koror, and will improve by Friday morning. Tropical disturbance
near Chuuk will move west-northwest and bring increased showers
for Yap Sunday and Monday. South of Koror late Friday or Saturday,
the GFS shows a weak circulation developing as a result of some
increased westerly winds and also interacting with 94W, so expecting
lighter winds over the weekend.

Combined seas tonight will be 4 to 6 ft at Koror, 5 to 7 at Yap,
with a foot decrease in heights as a weak circulation approaches the
area over the weekend.

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.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for GUZ001>004.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM ChST Friday for GUZ001>004.

MP...None.
Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM ChST Friday for
     PMZ151>154.

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Marianas: Middlebrooke
Micronesia: Hong