Drought in Texas, April 1 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1233 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022

.AVIATION...
VFR expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. Light southerly
winds overnight will increase by mid-morning with a brief period
of LLWS expected during the hours after sunrise at KLBB and KPVW.
Winds will become gusty out of the west this afternoon at KLBB and
KPVW. Area of high-based showers currently expected primarily at
KCDS this evening just ahead of a northerly wind shift with a
southward advancing cold front. Uncertainty remains high regarding
the areal coverage of precipitation so will leave SHRA mention
out at KPVW and KLBB for this issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022/

SHORT TERM...
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows mostly clear skies
over the CWA, though some scattered clouds over southeastern New
Mexico are expected to push into the region over the next few
hours. With mostly clear skies and downslope winds, we should warm
into the 60s and low-70s this afternoon. Winds will become
southerly tonight as a Lee cyclone forms in eastern Colorado,
ahead of a shortwave trough diving south from the PNW and a
surface high centers over eastern Oklahoma. These southerly winds
will advect moisture into the area, and we could see dewpoint
values near 40 degrees peak into the southern Rolling Plains by
early afternoon. The aforementioned surface low will move into
northeastern New Mexico, veering surface winds over the northern
South Plains and the far southwestern Texas Panhandle more
westerly. This will result in drying of the aforementioned area
and a tight gradient in moisture. As the upper trough moves near
the area, showers and thunderstorms will potentially form near
this boundary. With weak shear and MUCAPE near 500 J/kg, these
storms could become strong but are expected to remain below severe
limits. A cold front will push through the region late tomorrow
afternoon, bringing additional chances of showers and
thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms will have a better
chance of bringing a wetting rain, though probably only isolated
amounts of a few tenths of an inch. GKendrick

LONG TERM...
The next in a series of upper level short wave troughs will bring
the chance for showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area
early next week. Models remain in reasonably good agreement with
this trough moving across the western CONUS Sunday to early Monday
before it moves onto the Great Plains. Low level moisture
advection ahead of the system begins in earnest Sunday as a fairly
sharp upper trough in the northern jet stream moves across the
Dakotas. Sunday night should see mid level warm advection
downstream from the western CONUS upper trough increase and
interact with the increasing low level moisture to generate
showers and possibly some thunder mainly across the eastern
counties Sunday night. The northern stream trough will unlock the
next cold front which should enter the forecast area and serve as
a low level focus for additional convective development late
Sunday to early Monday. Finally, precipitation chances should peak
Monday afternoon as the main dynamic lift associated with the
approaching upper trough is maximized across the forecast area.

Prior to this period, Sunday will bring the warmest temperatures
of the 7-day period as low level warm advection on south to
southwest winds ahead of the southward-moving cold front will
result in temperatures peaking well into the 80s and lower 90s.
Along with the warmth and increased wind speeds will come the
return of some fire weather concerns.

Finally, a broad trough developing over the eastern two-thirds of
the CONUS should bring seasonal temperatures and generally fair
weather for the middle chunk of next week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

30/10/07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
325 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

TXZ021>044-010830-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
325 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions may develop on the
Caprock Sunday afternoon and evening.