Wildfire in Texas, April 1 to 5, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1229 AM CDT Fri Apr 1 2022

.AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/
VFR flight conditions prevail through the period. A light northeast
to east-northeasterly flow starting off becomes southeasterly and
increases to more moderate breezes with gusts into the 20 to 25 knot
range during Friday afternoon. Few to sct high clouds may be
possible from tonight into Friday morning. No significant low cloud
areas are expected to develop until around 09Z Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...

Early afternoon surface observations show a weak surface low near
DRT, with a surface trough stretching to the northeast of the low to
near JCT and AQO. This surface low is expected to move southeast and
gradually weaken today. Behind the low, we should see a gradual
increase in northwesterly winds along the Rio Grande plains through
this afternoon. Farther east, high pressure builds southward along
the Sabine River, resulting in east to northeast winds developing
across most areas by mid to late evening. Overnight lows will drop
into the 40s to near 50 for most areas. Low temperatures will be a
little higher (mid 50s) out west along the Rio Grande as some low
clouds develop toward sunrise.

On Friday, surface high pressure remains to our east, with a surface
trough over the plains of eastern New Mexico. As a result, south to
southeasterly winds will become gusty across most of the region
tomorrow afternoon. Daytime highs will warm into the lower 80s to
near 90. Lows for Friday night will trend upward, with lower 50s to
mid 60s in the forecast.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

An upper short wave is forecast to push across the Southern Plains
on Saturday. At low levels, a weak frontal boundary is expected to
move across South Central Texas on Saturday morning. The GFS
solution is dry for the period while the NAM12 and ECMWF solutions
like to bring light qpf for parts of the Hill Country and areas
along and east of Highway 183. We opted to go with a dry forecast
for Saturday favoring the GFS output. Otherwise, morning clouds on
Saturday morning are expected to burn off leading to mostly sunny
skies with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and lower 90s
southwest of San Antonio.

The dry air mass in the wake of the frontal passage is expected to
bring minimum relative humidity values into the teens and lower 20s
across the Edwards Plateau and parts of the Rio Grande. East to
southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up 20 mph are expected to
create elevated to near critical fire weather concerns from around 1
through 8 pm Saturday.

Increased moisture from the gulf is forecast to spread across the
area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Once again, clouds
will erode by midday with the mixing of the day for a mostly sunny
skies afternoon with highs in the upper 80s over most places and 90s
southwest of San Antonio and along the Rio Grande.

By Monday, an upper level short wave traveling across the four
corners region is forecast to push across the area in the evening
into Tuesday morning. The combination of a dryline across the Rio
Grande, increased moisture east of it and an approaching front from
the north, will lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
mainly along and east of a Rocksprings to Uvalde to Pearsall line on
Monday afternoon. The front is expected to push across the area
overnight into Tuesday morning with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing along it.

Clearing takes place in the wake of the frontal passage with highs
in the upper 80s and up to the mid 90s along the Rio Grande. Dry and
warmer conditions are expected on Wednesday with highs nearly 100
across the southwest of the region. By the way, fire weather concerns
return on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week due low humidity and
breezy conditions.

FIRE WEATHER...

Northwesterly winds behind a surface low are still developing across
portions of the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau.
There is still some time for these winds to materialize and with
current humidity levels already down into the teens and 20s, we will
keep the Red Flag Warning intact. Elsewhere, humidity levels will
remain low (near 20-30%) this afternoon, but wind speeds should
generally remain at or below 10 mph. However, given the dry fuels
and low humidity, Elevated to Near Critical Fire Weather conditions
will continue.

On Friday, southerly winds return and increase to 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to 30 mph. The latest model data shows low-level moisture
levels may remain a little higher than previously anticipated. While
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible, we
will hold off on the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              58  85  55  86  61 /  -   -    0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  55  85  52  86  59 /  -   -    0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     57  87  55  87  60 /  -   -    0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            56  83  54  85  59 /  -    0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           63  88  61  92  66 /   0  -    0  -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        56  84  53  86  59 /  -   -    0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             57  90  56  89  60 /   0  -    0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        56  86  53  86  59 /  -   -    0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   58  84  56  85  62 /  -   -    0   0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       58  87  58  86  62 /  -   -    0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           62  90  60  90  64 /   0  -    0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
621 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-012330-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
621 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions expected on
Friday and possibly into the weekend. Low humidities and breezy
winds are expected on most days. In addition, fuels remain dry to
extremely dry.

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions return the
middle of next week as humidities fall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.