Higher-than-normal water levels in the wake of Hurricane Ian's passage across the Florida Peninsula combined with an approaching spring tide in the lunar cycle produced coastal flooding in the upper Florida Keys along Florida Bay.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS KEY wrote it up.
Higher-than-normal water levels in the wake of Hurricane Ian's passage across the Florida Peninsula combined with an approaching spring tide in the lunar cycle produced coastal flooding in the upper Florida Keys along Florida Bay.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Key West, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 29, 3:34 AM EST, 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
434 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Ian continues to move northeast across east-central Florida
early this morning, leaving behind scattered mostly light showers
and slowly decreasing westerly winds across the Florida Keys.
Satellite imagery and the lack of deep convection across our area
suggest that we are under the influence of a mid-level dry slot
wrapping around the south side of Ian. The 00Z and 06Z Key West
soundings show this clearly, both sampling a very dry airmass
above 600 mb. Radar/satellite trends and CAM guidance indicate
little change in this pattern is likely today, with the mid level
dry slot remaining over the Keys. Therefore, we expect continued
widely scattered showers which will produce mostly only trace to
light rainfall amounts, with thunder chances remaining quite low.
Will continue with low chance PoPs and a mention of isolated
thunder for now, but this may be overdone. Otherwise, W/NW breezes
will continue to slowly diminish today, with some sunshine
returning and high temps climbing into the upper 80s.
Ian is forecast to curve north then north-northwest during the
next few days, eventually becoming a slow-moving extratropical
cyclone over the Southeastern United States. This will maintain an
unseasonably deep trough over the region, which will usher a dry
continental airmass down into our area through the weekend and
into next week, quite unusual for the end of September. Persistent
NW/N breezes will also allow a slightly drier surface airmass to
filter into the Keys, with dewpoints dropping to around 70 and
possibly even into the upper 60s early next week. Time-height
cross sections show abundant dry air in the mid levels, similar to
dry season, and will therefore forecast only slight 10 to 20
percent PoPs from tonight all the way through next Wednesday, with
no mention of thunder. Temps will remain warm, but not as hot as
we have seen much of the past several months, with highs in the
upper 80s and lows in the mid/upper 70s.
Water levels at tide gauges in eastern Florida Bay are well above
warning criteria early this morning, and continue to slowly rise,
as the persistent strong westerly winds continue to pile water
into the funnel-shaped bay. Significant coastal flooding is
ongoing across vulnerable low-lying areas on the Bayside of the
Upper Keys, and we expect this to continue for the next couple of
days, with little if any relief during the low tides. A Coastal
Flood Warning remains posted for the Bayside of the Upper Keys.
Elsewhere, water level anomalies at the Key West and Vaca Key
tide gauges range from one half to one foot early this morning,
and it appears that the threat for warning-level coastal flooding
has now ended for the Middle and Lower Keys. However, areas of
leftover street flooding in low-lying sections, mainly in the
Lower Keys including Midtown and New Town Key West, will take some
time to abate as the remaining water slowly drains away.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Overnight obs show W/NW slowly decreasing to around 20 knots
across the Keys coastal waters, while Satan Shoal wave buoy is
holding around 5 feet. Have dropped the remaining Tropical Storm
Warning from the offshore Gulf waters, and a Small Craft Advisory
is now posted for all Keys waters. From the synopsis, west to
northwest breezes will continue to gradually slacken across the
Florida Keys coastal waters today and tonight. However, marine
hazards from dangerous seas will continue through Friday,
particularly for the western marine zones. Marine conditions will
greatly improve over the weekend, when a weak pressure pattern
will promote light to gentle northwest breezes, and seas will
finally subside.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 434 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. Isolated fast
moving showers continue across our area with those crossing the
island chain possibly impacting either terminal with brief wind
gusts around 30 knots and short periods of sub-VFR conditions. This
shower activity is expected wane as rain chances plummet to below
usual for this time of year later tonight. Surface winds will be out
of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20
knots.
&&
.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history in 1769, a British ship was
wrecked by a tropical cyclone, washing up on Key Largo.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 86 79 87 79 / 30 20 20 20
Marathon 89 79 90 79 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ077-
078.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
&&
Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....DR
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www.twitter.com/nwskeywestHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Key West FL 443 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-300930- Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys- Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and Buttonwood Sound- Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge- Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out and beyond 5 fathoms- Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel- Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal out to 5 Fathoms- Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef- Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out to the reef- Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal out to the reef- Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM- Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out 20 NM- Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM- Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry Tortugas out 20 NM- Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out- Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge 20 to 60 NM out- Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out- Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out- 443 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. ...Coastal Food Warning in Effect for the Upper Keys... Significant coastal flooding will continue in Bayside communities of Key Largo today and tonight. With persistent west to northwest winds, these areas will see very high water levels of 2 to 3 feet above normal tides continue, with little if any relief at low tide. A Small Craft Advisory is posted for all Keys coastal waters today, due to west to northwest winds near 20 knots, and seas as high as 7 to 11 feet across the Straits of Florida and offshore Gulf waters. Winds are expected to drop below 20 knots tonight, but seas will remain around 7 feet across parts of the offshore Gulf waters and Lower Straits. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Coastal flooding will likely persist across the Bayside communities of Key Largo on Friday, and possibly into the weekend, with only slow improvement expected as the excess water will be slow to drain back out of eastern Florida Bay. Seas around 7 feet may linger across the offshore Gulf waters on Friday morning. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
228 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0951 AM TROPICAL STORM 14 NW KEY WEST 24.72N 81.92W
09/28/2022 GMZ033 FL MESONET
SMITH SHOAL LIGHT WEATHERFLOW DROPPED BELOW
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS (34 KTS, OR 39
MPH). WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 33 KTS, OR 38
MPH, AND GUSTING TO 38 KTS, OR 44 MPH.
&&
ROSSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
231 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0727 AM TROPICAL STORM 2 SE BOCA CHICA 24.57N 81.67W
09/28/2022 GMZ044 FL ASOS
BOCA CHICA - NAS KEY WEST ASOS DROPPED BELOW
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS (34 KTS, OR 39
MPH). WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 31 KTS, OR 36
MPH, AND GUSTING TO 46 KTS, OR 53 MPH.
&&
ROSSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
234 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 AM TROPICAL STORM 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.11W
09/28/2022 GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION
SOMBRERO KEY C-MAN STATION DROPPED BELOW
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS (34 KTS, OR 39
MPH). WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 33 KTS, OR 38
MPH, AND GUSTING TO 42 KTS, OR 48 MPH.
&&
ROSSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 coastal flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Coastal flooding of 28 inches above street level was reported near the intersection of North Blackwater Lane and Stillwright Way. Water had entered outbuildings and sheds of properties in the immediate vicinity.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1058269.