Drought in Arkansas, September 29 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
957 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...New UPDATE to SHORT TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Lowered several of our overnight lows across the four state area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Overnight) Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Nice 5 to 10 degree spread on air and dew point temperatures and
models keep enough wind overnight to allow a gentle fall on both
toward dawn. Skies are clear, but we are still a little warm in TX
with low to mid 70s, while much of our sites along and E of I-49
are much cooler in the 60s and even upper 50s and lower 60s in S
AR. Our secondary air mass began arriving late today with the
beefed up gradient arising from Ian's landfall. So we will keep a
little of this dry wind overnight from the NE around 5 mph,
driving down our dew points another 10 degrees or so by daybreak.
We will keep a good spread at daybreak with no fog or anything,
and just a welcomed cooler trend that may even keep highs in the
70s areawide. The cooler trend will bottom out tomorrow night
with ideal radiational cooling. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Northeasterly winds on the backside of Ian, which will likely be
moving northward through Florida into the SE CONUS, will keep dry
conditions and below normal temperatures advecting into the region
through most of the long-term period.

Morning lows will start off in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Friday,
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  Mostly clear
skies will continue over the weekend into early next week, with a
gradual warm-up to near normal highs, as afternoon temps should
return to the mid to upper 80s. However, below normal overnight
temps will continue, as morning lows are forecasted to bottom out in
the mid to upper 50s. Mostly sunny conditions will remain as we move
towards the middle of next week, but temps will start to moderate to
near normal, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s and
afternoon highs remaining in the mid to upper 80s.

With the lack of precip recently and through the long-term forecast
period, along with dry northeasterly winds and forecasted low
relative humidity values, expect elevated fire weather conditions to
become a concern. Fire Danger Statements, at minimum, may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR for the rest of the month and
beyond as a secondary air mass arrives down into the midSouth. The
large surface air mass is 1034mb over the midWest and sprawling a
cool NE wind down the entire MS River valley with the pressure
gradient assist from Ian. We will see NE 5-10KT overnight and 10KT
early tomorrow with mid to upper teen gusts through lunchtime. NE
winds will slack later in the day and even lay down tomorrow
night, but prevail NE daily through this weekend. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  51  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  81  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  52  78  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  48  75  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  83  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  53  80  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  83  52  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....BU
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN
115 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-291815-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
115 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Expect mostly clear skies to continue today. However, with dry
conditions, low relative humidity values, and increasing northeast
winds this afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions will become a
concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No severe weather is anticipated at this time. However, elevated
fire weather conditions may remain a concern, as dry weather and low
relative humidity values are expected to continue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AC3