Tropical Storm and Storm Surge in Florida, November 8 to 10, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
635 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday Night) Issued at 333 PM EST Tue
Nov 8 2022

Moisture advection continues this afternoon as Tropical Storm Nicole
moves westward in the Atlantic towards the Florida Peninsula. Shower
activity will gradually increase during the late afternoon hours
and into tonight as the outer bands associated with Nicole become
to push across the eastern areas of South Florida. These showers
will come in the form of a squalls and could cause quick periods
of very heavy downpours as these showers move through the region.
The chances of thunderstorms will remain low through tonight as
there is limited instability to work with. Since most of South
Florida will be on the southern side of the storm, the chances of
tornadic development in the strongest thunderstorms will remain
low, however, it cannot be ruled out entirely.

The more widespread heavy rainfall associated with Nicole will begin
early on Wednesday morning and it will last throughout the day and
into Wednesday night as well. Total rainfall accumulations
associated with Nicole through Wednesday night will generally range
from 2 to 4 inches with localized amounts in excess of 6 inches
where multiple rounds of heavy rainfall move over the same location.
With the potential for rainfall rates to be on the high side, a
flood watch will be in effect beginning on Wednesday morning for the
east coast metro areas as well as the Lake Okeechobee region.

Winds across the region will gradually increase tonight and into
Wednesday as Nicole moves closer. Tropical storm force winds could
begin as early as Wednesday morning, with the strongest winds
occurring on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The strongest
winds will be located mainly over Palm Beach County

Thursday and Thursday Night: As previously described in impacts,
Tropical Storm Nicole will make her (unfortunate) presence known
on Wednesday through late Thursday. By mid-day Thursday, the
current models are indicating that the eye of the storm will be
making it's way across central Florida. With the large extent of
the storm's impacts, the strong winds and rain will be around
south Florida throughout late Thursday. The eye of a storm is not
where all impacts are felt - south Florida, over both land and
off shore, will be under the influence of active weather from
Nicole's right side and outer bands.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday) Issued at 333 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

Following Nicole's passage, there is potential for precipitable
remnants that may keep some isolated/scattered rain showers into
Friday and early Saturday. Model ensembles are doubting it'll
still be around on Saturday, but the potential is there,
especially since an approaching front will play a large role. PoPs
have been kept out of the forecast on Saturday, due to lacking
confidence we will see rain. Very little, if any is staying
offshore, compared to the previous days.

Leading into the weekend, a long-lived low in continental US will be
moving eastward accompanied by a strong cold front. This cold
front, forecast to be dry, will shift through Florida. There is
potential for temperatures to drop near 5- 10 degrees below
normal, with overnight lows into the low 60s & highs in the mid-
to-high 70s, by Sunday. There is a decent spread in the 25 to 75
deterministic percentiles as we move into the weekend - this cold
front will play a large role in temperature drop with little
agreement amongst models at the moment. Winds will be breezy,
especially throughout the afternoon, Sunday and Monday may be a
few chilly, fall days for south Floridians.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

Showers, with strengthening winds, are increasing as we move into
the early evening hours. VFR conditions continue at most TAF
sites. There will be some short-lived MVFR/IFR conditions across
the east coast, only with a quick moving shower in the early
evening hours. Late tonight into tomorrow, sub-VFR conditions
will prevail as showers continue to increase, especially over the
east coast terminals. Gusty north-northeasterly wind flow will
continue overnight with speeds gradually increasing across the
east coast terminals late tonight into early Wednesday morning as
Tropical Storm Nicole moves closer to the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

Hazardous marine conditions will remain in place across the Atlantic
waters throughout the rest of the week as winds and seas increase
with Subtropical Storm Nicole moving towards the region. Marine
conditions will gradually deteriorate over the Gulf waters towards
the middle of the week as winds and seas increase.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 333 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

Beach conditions along the East Coast will remain hazardous through
the forecast period as Subtropical Storm Nicole approaches the
Florida peninsula. The risk of rip currents along the East Coast
will remain high through the forecast period due to strong
northeasterly wind flow and an increasing swell associated with
Nicole. Surf heights will rapidly increase along the Atlantic Coast
beaches out ahead of the system tonight and Tuesday.

Minor coastal flooding will also be possible along the Atlantic
Coast beaches tonight at the times of high tide. As the storm
approaches Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat of coastal inundation
and beach erosion increases. Today's Coastal Flood Statement will
give way tonight to a Storm Surge Watch for coastal portions of Palm
Beach and Broward Counties with a Coastal Flood Watch for coastal
Miami-Dade County.

Current high tide forecasts have the tides on an increasing trend
with each high tide cycle with a peak Wednesday to Thursday. These
tide projections do not include storm surge values which currently
stand as follows:
*North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns River to
the Fuller Warren Bridge... 3 to 5 ft
*Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
*North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne
 Bay...1 to 2 ft

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  81  74  85 /  80  90  70  60
West Kendall     72  81  72  85 /  70  80  60  60
Opa-Locka        73  81  72  85 /  80  90  70  60
Homestead        72  80  72  83 /  70  80  60  60
Fort Lauderdale  75  81  73  84 /  80  90  80  60
N Ft Lauderdale  74  80  72  84 /  80  90  80  60
Pembroke Pines   72  80  72  83 /  80  90  70  60
West Palm Beach  73  81  71  84 /  90 100  90  70
Boca Raton       73  81  72  85 /  90  90  80  60
Naples           72  79  72  80 /  20  70  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Watch for FLZ067-068-071-072-172.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ063-066>068-071-072-172.

     Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ074-173.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ168.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for FLZ063-066>068-071-072-074-168-172-173.

     Storm Surge Watch for FLZ168-172.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ172-173.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for FLZ173.

AM...Hurricane Watch for AMZ610-651-671.

     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ610-651-671.

     Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ630.

     Hurricane Warning for AMZ650-670.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Simmons
AVIATION...Simmons

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
409 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
092115-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
409 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2022

...Tropical Storm Nicole to Impact Florida Mid Week...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic, Biscayne Bay, South
Florida, Gulf of Mexico and Lake Okeechobee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

NHC is currently issuing advisories for Subtropical Storm Nicole,
please see the latest Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) graphics
for specific hazard information.

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mfl

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

NHC is currently issuing advisories for Subtropical Storm Nicole,
please see the latest Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) graphics
for specific hazard information.

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mfl

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.