NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 8, 10:24 AM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 8, 10:24 AM EST, 1 hour 36 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1024 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2022
...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2022
...Subtropical Storm Nicole To Bring Significant Impacts to East
Central Florida This Week...
...Dangerous Seas, Surf, and Strong Rip Currents...
...Beach Erosion, Dune Breaching, and Coastal Flooding...
...Increasing Winds, Gusty Squalls, and Heavy Rainfall Totals...
Newly designated Tropical Storm Nicole, continues to push westward
this morning and is expected to make landfall along the eastern
Florida coast mid-week. Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for
the entire east central Florida coast and the adjacent waters.
Today, windy conditions are expected by this afternoon, as the
pressure gradient tightens between Nicole and high pressure
building over the eastern US. NE winds increasing to 15-20mph,
with gusts up to around 30mph inland. Winds have been and will be
stronger along the coast, where winds 20-25mph with gusts up to
35mph are forecast. Please use caution during any voting
activities today due to the gusty winds.
In addition to the winds, moisture will begin to increase today
into tonight as Nicole approaches. Little change to the forecast
thinking from overnight, with PoPs generally 20-30% through the
day, but could see up to 40% along the coast. Hi-res guidance
continues to suggest a training band of showers developing and
moving onshore along the Volusia and northern Brevard Coasts,
then persisting SW into northern Lake County and the Orlando
metro. These areas could see accumulations of up to 0.5-1" into
the evening hours, though isolated locations could reach 1.5". While
this is a manageable QPF in the near term, any rainfall prior to
the arrival of Nicole may prime soils for future heavy rains mid
to late week. This is something to keep in mind going forward,
especially near areas hardest hit by flooding from Hurricane Ian.
Elsewhere, accumulations should be minimal. Breezy conditions and
showers should help to keep highs this afternoon in the lower 80s.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate into tonight, as Nicole
approaches. Winds will likely level off, though remain elevated,
overnight after the sun goes down. However, increasing coverage of
shower bands are expected, with PoPs 60-80% along the coast from
the Cape southward and 30-50% elsewhere.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday-Friday(modified previous)...Tropical Cyclone Nicole
over the northern Bahamas early in the period will move toward the
Treasure Coast and/or southern Brevard County during the day into
the evening, likely moving onto the coast, Wed overnight-early
Thu morning, continuing WNW toward the WCFL coast by late in the
day emerging just off the coast, then taking a northward turn Thu
evening/night, and into southern GA/Southeast U.S. on Fri with
remnants picking up speed Fri night up along the Atlc Seaboard.
Nicole will be accompanied by WDSPRD rain squalls with ISOLD-SCT
lightning storms possible. These squalls will have wind gusts 40-60
mph, heavy rainfall, and an ISOLD tornado potential as well. Storm
total rainfall from repeated rounds of heavy showers could produce
accumulations of 4-6 inches across coastal counties and 2-4 inches
further inland. Some locally higher amounts will be possible.
Nuisance flooding and ponding of water on roadways will be likely.
This additional rainfall is expected to stall any decrease in river
levels or even cause some rises.
Another major concern is the prolonged period of dangerous beach
conditions. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the entire ECFL
coast, for the potential of 3 to 5 feet of surge above ground level,
and as much as 6 feet in spots. Strong and gusty onshore winds thru
Wed night, then E/SE on Thu, will produce very high seas, rough,
pounding surf, large breaking waves, and numerous, strong, life-
threatening rip currents. These winds, high seas, and surf will
combine with high astronomical tides to bring the threat of
significant beach erosion around the times of the next several high
tide cycles.
Some uncertainty still exists in the final track and intensity of
the system. However, significant impacts to east central Florida are
expected. Preparations need to be completed prior to Wed, as
conditions will rapidly deteriorate into Wed afternoon, night, and
Thu. Be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecast and any
Watches or Warnings that are issued. Those still dealing with the
devastating impacts from Hurricane Ian are especially encouraged to
make preparations and monitor the forecast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 840 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2022
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for all of the local Atlantic
waters. Hazardous seas this morning will become increasingly
dangerous into tonight. Operation of small craft is strongly
discouraged! NE winds today increasing to 25-30kts by this
evening, then possibly up to 35kts well offshore by daybreak.
Gusts 35-40kts. Seas rapidly building from 11-14ft to 16-20ft
overnight.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 840 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2022
Increasing ENE winds this afternoon. Winds up to 20 kts by 18z,
gusting around 25kt at most terminals. Gusts up to 35kts will be
possible at KMCO and can't be ruled out at KDAB during the
afternoon hours when mixing is at its highest. Slight decrease in
winds overnight with most terminals around 15kts, but Treasure
Coast terminals will remain around 20 kts, with gusts 30-35kts.
Winds around 25kt tomorrow, with higher gusts. VCSH at all
terminals for quick moving showers from the Atlantic waters. TEMPO
for more organized showers at MCO/SFB/DAB/ISM from 19/23z. CIGs
begin to drop overnight becoming MVFR at coastal terminals. Low
CIGs continuing into the day tomorrow as Nicole approaches the
east coast.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 840 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2022
Northward flow of the Saint Johns River will continue to slow and
stall over the next several days due to the approach of Tropical
Storm Nicole. The rate of decline in levels will stall today, with
rises anticipated at all forecast points with the exception of Cocoa
through the end of the week. The degree of rises in river levels is
highly dependent on amount of rainfall and location within the basin
where the heaviest rainfall occurs.
The Saint Johns river at Astor will remain in Moderate Flood Stage
the next couple of days, beginning a rise by this afternoon. Levels
are forecast to reach Major Flood Stage at 4.0 feet once again on
Friday, remaining steady into the weekend. A higher rise is possible
depending on rainfall totals as well as the northerly wind surge
leading to a backup of water on Lake George.
Near Deland, the river remains near 4.6 feet within Minor Flood
Stage. Levels will hold steady at most of this week, with a rise to
4.7 feet forecast this weekend.
Near Sanford, the river will hold steady at 6.4 feet this week with
a slight rise by the weekend to 6.5 feet but remain within Minor
Flood Stage.
At Geneva above Lake Harney, the river will continue a steady
decline through Thursday, then begin a rise back to 8.8 feet on
Friday. Levels are forecast to remain in Minor Flood Stage into the
weekend, but further rises are possible depending on total rainfall
amounts.
For the Little Wekiva River and Shingle Creek, rises in these basins
are highly dependent on duration and location of rainfall. Tropical
Storm Nicole could cause slight rises in both basins, with Minor
Flood impacts possible later this week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 81 71 79 72 / 60 50 80 90
MCO 84 71 78 72 / 40 50 70 90
MLB 82 74 79 73 / 30 60 90 100
VRB 82 73 81 72 / 20 70 90 100
LEE 81 67 76 69 / 30 30 50 80
SFB 82 70 77 72 / 50 60 70 90
ORL 83 70 77 72 / 50 50 70 90
FPR 82 73 81 72 / 30 80 90 100
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-
159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.
Hurricane Watch for FLZ154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
647-747.
Storm Surge Warning for FLZ141-154-159-164-447-747.
AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.
Hurricane Watch for AMZ552-555-572-575.
&&
Leahy/Law/Weitlich/Watson/Smith