Drought in Florida, November 8 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
943 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

The forecast is on track, updates aren't required this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

Upper level ridging will remain over our area through Tuesday,
keeping our weather rather benign. Clear skies are expected through
tonight across the area with lows in the mid 60s. A backdoor cold
front will move into our Georgia counties Tuesday afternoon, thanks
in part to the northeasterly flow between Subtropical Storm Nicole
nearing the Bahamas and high pressure over the Northeast US and
southern Quebec. This will bring a shot of cooler, drier air, mostly
into our Georgia counties during the afternoon. Highs across the
area will primarily be in the middle 80s with some lower 80s closer
to Fitzgerald. We may get close to record highs at Tallahassee and
Apalachicola. Tallahassee's record high for Tuesday is 87 set in
2005, and Apalachicola's record is 84 set in 2020.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

Northeasterly flow will begin to pick up Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the gradient tightens between the high over the Mid-
Atlantic and Nicole moving through the Bahamas. This flow will
begin to drag some cooler air down into the area with lows
dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s by Wednesday morning.
Highs on Wednesday will be cooler as well, with temperatures
topping out in the upper 60s and lower 70s on gusty northeasterly
winds. May also start to see an increase in bands of showers
across the southeastern third of the area on Wednesday as moisture
increases ahead of Nicole.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

Long term portion of the forecast will largely hinge on the
evolution and track of Nicole as it tracks across Florida Thursday
into Friday around the periphery of an upper ridge and then
accelerates northeastward ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Uncertainty remains as to how far west Nicole reaches before
turning back to the northeast, which will affect how the system
impacts the Big Bend of Florida in to South Central Georgia.
However, gusty northeasterly winds will likely precede the system
on Thursday into Friday with the tight gradient in place. A higher
probability of tropical storm force winds or some impacts from
storm surge or significant rainfall would become more likely if
the system were to track further to the west and north towards the
central Big Bend.

As Nicole exits, much cooler and drier air will move into the
region by Saturday night into Sunday. Expect low in the 40s
Saturday night and 30s by Monday morning. Highs on Sunday will
likely not get out of the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast
period. In the afternoon hours, winds will pick up and could gust
from 15-20kts across all sites. Winds are expected to taper off
once again in the evening hours. Starting 0Z Wednesday, low-level
wind shear may be present starting near KTLH and KVLD before
progressing over every terminal in our forecast area. This will be
expanded upon in the next update.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

With high pressure to the north and Nicole approaching Florida
from the east, northeasterly winds will steadily increase through
much of the week over the marine areas. Exercise Caution
conditions are likely to begin early Tuesday with Advisory level
winds Tuesday night. Tropical Storm conditions could arrive as
early as Wednesday night or Thursday, especially over the eastern
waters. Tropical Storm conditions will remain possible through
late in the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

Over the next few days, northeast winds are expected to increase
across the area. As a result, transport winds will increase leading
to higher dispersions encompassing the entire area on Tuesday.
Higher dispersions are also expected on Wednesday to a lesser extent
and will be focused along the Big Bend, I-10 east of the Apalachee
river, and SW GA. RH values are expected to remain above critical
values but could reach the critical threshold east of I-75 in south-
central GA Tuesday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

The start of this week will remain dry. Rain chances do increase
by midweek but, the amount of rainfall we may receive will depend
on the track of the subtropical Storm Nicole that is expected to
track across Florida late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  85  53  72 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  85  55  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        64  84  51  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  83  49  69 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  83  51  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  84  55  75 /   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  66  84  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM....Camp
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Camp