Surface heating and moisture ahead of an advancing cold front over North Florida led to the development of showers and a few thunderstorms across portions of SE Florida.
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The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
Surface heating and moisture ahead of an advancing cold front over North Florida led to the development of showers and a few thunderstorms across portions of SE Florida.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 16, 2:46 PM EST, 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 246 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 Originating in the FL Panhandle this morning, a cold front is making progress across the Peninsula today. As the front continues south- southeastward, it is expected to move through South Florida tonight. With the diurnal heating and sea breezes, there will be an opportunity for light showers and isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evenings across the southeast. 12Z soundings confirm the opportunity for weak to moderate convection as previously forecasted - with CAPE values reaching 1500 J/kg and lapse rates supporting a conditionally unstable atmosphere. PWATs are not showing much moisture, with model indication the best chance for showers will be over the Atlantic Ocean. Tomorrow will be drier with an uptick in breezy wind speeds. There is a chance for light showers, but most will remain over the Gulf Stream waters. Conditions will be mostly cloudy with winds gusting up to 20KT especially along the east coast. Afternoon highs are expected to be the last day of above normal temperatures as they reach the mid-to-upper 80s across most of south Florida. There may be some interior locations pushing 90 degrees. There will be numerous daily records in jeopardy today! Following the warm day, the cold front will usher much cooler air into the region with overnight lows cooling to near seasonal temperatures. Lows in the interior will be in the low to mid 60s with the eastern metro areas falling into the upper 60s. There will be quite a spread in temperatures tomorrow. Highs near Lake Okeechobee will struggle to reach 70 while Broward/Miami- Dade/Monroe Counties will have no problem reaching upper 70s to 80.&& .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 The front will stall just to our south over the Straits of Florida on Friday and Saturday, as a CONUS longwave trough remains in place, and the mid/upper level wind flow parallels the frontal boundary. As a result, clouds and scattered showers look to linger over east coast metro areas on Friday, then over most of the area on Saturday as low-level NE winds transport Atlantic moisture over the southern peninsula in the vicinity of the boundary. Models for the past couple of days have been hinting at perturbations in the mid/upper level SW flow moving from the Gulf of Mexico across South Florida late this weekend, overriding the moist NE-E winds near the front. This would result in the second half of the weekend being quite gloomy and wet. PoPs for Sunday and Monday will lean slightly on the higher side, ranging from 30% around the Gulf Coast to 50% on the East Coast. Locally heavy rainfall is a possibility with this setup. As we move into the early and middle part of Thanksgiving week, models continue to show the front draped across the area with plenty of moisture in the low and mid-levels riding over the front. A continuation of the rather wet pattern therefore looks to be in store. Temperatures on Friday morning are forecast to drop into the 50s around Lake Okeechobee and most of SW Florida, with 60s elsewhere. This will be the coolest morning as clouds and moisture increase over the weekend and keep lows in the 60s to around 70F. Highs will be mainly in the 70s through the long term period, held down primarily by clouds and precipitation as we get later into the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 VFR conditions will prevail. There will be potential for light showers and isolated t-storms after 20Z. Confidence is low that they will impact any TAF sites, so VCSH was not included in the TAFs. If conditions evolve for potential convection, amendments will be made as needed. Best chance for rain will be in the southeast and across the Atlantic waters. Light, variable winds will shift north overnight with stronger winds tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 North-northeast winds will increase tonight after the frontal passage. Small craft caution conditions are possible for most of the forecast period as winds are expected to be in the 15-20 knot range and seas 4-6 ft on Thursday and Friday. The winds are expected to gradually become easterly on Saturday and Sunday and remain in the 15-20 knot range with seas 4-6 ft. Showers over the Atlantic waters Thursday and Friday will increase in coverage over all waters as we head into the upcoming weekend. A few thunderstorms may also develop over the Atlantic waters by the weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 Lingering northerly swell will keep a moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches of Palm Beach County today. The rip current risk should begin to increase at all Atlantic beaches Thursday and continue through the upcoming weekend due to stronger northeast-east winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 71 84 67 80 / 20 20 30 30 West Kendall 69 84 65 80 / 10 10 30 30 Opa-Locka 69 81 66 79 / 20 20 30 30 Homestead 69 83 66 79 / 10 20 30 30 Fort Lauderdale 71 80 67 79 / 20 20 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 71 80 67 78 / 20 20 30 30 Pembroke Pines 69 80 66 79 / 20 20 30 30 West Palm Beach 69 78 66 78 / 20 20 30 20 Boca Raton 70 81 67 79 / 20 20 30 30 Naples 66 77 59 75 / 10 0 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...Simmons LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...Simmons
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Miami FL 844 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 171345- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 844 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022 ...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for the Palm Beaches... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic, Biscayne Bay, South Florida, Gulf of Mexico and Lake Okeechobee. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will continue at the beaches of Palm Beach County. Lightning: An isolated thunderstorm or two are possible over the southern Everglades and western suburbs of SE Florida this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The rip current risk will increase at the Atlantic beaches Thursday through the upcoming weekend and early next week. Winds and seas will increase over all local waters Thursday through through the upcoming weekend, leading to deteriorating marine conditions. A few thunderstorms are possible mainly over the Atlantic waters Thursday and Friday, then over the eastern portion of South Florida Saturday through Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible over the east coast metro areas Saturday through Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Miami radar (KAMX), 22 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:47 UTC.
1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
A brief funnel cloud was observed from the NWS Miami office in University Park looking north, associated with a weak shower. Funnel dissipated after a few minutes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1067107.