Flooding and Hail in Florida, July 1, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
803 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

The first morning of July is off to a very typical start. A few
early morning showers and now the first thunderstorms of the day
have developed off the FL West Coast in the Gulf of Mexico, with
water temperatures now providing the ample instability needed to
support these low-topped early storms. While these storms are
unlikely to make it to the more stable coastline now, it is a sign
of things to come later on.

As has been the case over the last several days, more thunderstorms
are expected later today over the peninsula as diurnal heating
gets the sea breezes going, focusing moisture and instability that
are already present. A slight shift in the ridge axis means the
flow has weakened just a bit, favoring more collisions inland as
opposed to right at the coast. This may serve to keep convection
more inland than it has been over the last couple days, but the
light flow also favors more random and erratic propagation of
outflow boundaries. So coastal areas still have a decent chance,
even if the bulk of the coverage ends up to the east of I-75. In
fact, the first land-based storms of the day are likely over
central Pinellas County as the bay and sea breeze collide early
this afternoon.

Overall the forecast looks on track for the day. There are no major
concerns beyond the usual heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty
winds associated with storms. The atmosphere is warm (-6C to
- 7C at 500mb) and PW values of 2+ inches with very uniform
moisture distribution through the column do not support severe
convection. Aside from a couple tweaks to capture ongoing showers
and storms over the Gulf, no additional changes are anticipated to
the forecast before the afternoon at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

An upper level low can be seen meandering over the Florida Straits
on IR and water vapor satellite imagery early this morning, and is
forecast to slide south of Cuba later today and tonight, leaving
broad ridging aloft over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico
through the weekend and into next week. At the surface, the sub-
tropical ridge north of Florida is shifting south into northern
Florida this morning, with lighter and more neutral gradient flow
expected over the northern half of the forecast area this
afternoon and through the weekend. This will allow the west coast
sea breeze to push farther into the interior north of Interstate
4 than previous days. However, the southeast flow over southwest
Florida will keep the higher rain chances closer to the coast
there, generally along and inland of Interstate 75. This pattern
will hold through Sunday, with deep moisture allowing for
numerous thunderstorms each day during the afternoon and early
evening.

By Monday, the surface ridge is forecast to lift slightly north
again, with southeasterly flow across the forecast area holding
through the rest of the week. This pattern will favor scattered to
numerous thunderstorms developing each afternoon, and building west
towards the coast through the late afternoon and early evening with
the sea breeze collision.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 757 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

Despite a few showers in the Gulf this morning, primary impacts for
terminals are not expected until this afternoon when the atmosphere
becomes more unstable. The first storms are likely near KPIE and
KTPA as the bay breeze and sea breeze collide over Pinellas County,
initiating convection in the vicinity of these terminals. From
there, conditions become increasingly favorable for storms later
in the afternoon and evening as additional collisions occur near
the remaining terminals. This is likely to be generally associated
with the shift from light easterly flow to westerly flow this
afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Quiet conditions are
expected overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 757 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

Light easterly flow in the morning gives way to an onshore wind in
the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Other than locally
hazardous conditions in the vicinity of showers and storms (which
are in the forecast everyday this week), marine conditions are
expected to remain mostly benign with winds less than 15kts and seas
of 2 feet or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  92  79 /  60  30  60  20
FMY  93  75  93  76 /  60  40  60  20
GIF  93  75  92  76 /  80  60  60  10
SRQ  90  75  91  76 /  50  20  50  20
BKV  92  72  92  73 /  60  20  60  20
SPG  90  79  90  79 /  60  20  60  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Fleming