Rip Current in Florida, February 8, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
253 PM EST Tue Feb 8 2022

.SHORT TERM (Rest of today and Wednesday)...

A stalled frontal boundary remains across the region with
multiple boundaries along the east coast and Atlantic waters this
afternoon. Ahead of an approaching frontal system showers will be
possible over eastern portions of the east coast metro. As we
continue into the late afternoon and evening hours there is
another frontal boundary working down the Florida peninsula as a
mid-level shortwave passes to the north. This will increase
showers from north to south across the region this afternoon and
through the overnight hours. Highest rain chances will be northern
portions of the CWA as the coverage will be fairly scattered as
it reaches southern portions of the peninsula. Overall instability
is fairly limited with cloud cover limiting diurnal heating, poor
lapse rates and little to no upper- level dynamic support.
Therefore, will keep any mention of thunder out of the forecast.

As the front continues to work through the region overnight showers
will remain possible. Low temperatures will be in the low 50s near
Lake Okeechobee with mid 50s across the interior and Gulf Coast. Low
temps will be in the low to mid 60s for much of the east coast metro.

The front will slowly exit the region Wednesday, with some lingering
low-level clouds to begin the day with remnant showers possible over
the east coast and Atlantic waters. As the front clears by late
morning and afternoon flow will become northwesterly. This will lead
to clearing skies with drier and cooler air moving down the
peninsula. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be cooler with
highs in the upper 60s for northern portions, low to mid 70s for
southeast Florida.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday night)...

The extended period is mainly characterized by strong ridging over
the western United States and longwave troughing remaining over the
Eastern United States. A low amplitude shortwave will continue
propagating eastward into the Atlantic waters by Thursday. In its
place, sfc high pressure will build into the region from the west,
which will limit chances of precipitation for SFL during late week.
The southern-portion of the jet stream will remain well to our north
which, so the upper level pattern will also support benign weather
for Thursday and Friday. By late Friday, a new shortwave will pass
through Northern FL with an associated sfc frontal boundary. This
system will aid in the development of a strong sfc low which will
transverse the Eastern U.S. coastline early into the new
workweek. Timing and strength of this system are still to be
determined, but as it appears currently, the sfc low will be
favorably situated in the entrance region of a robust jet streak
which would support further deepening. Good news for SFL is that
both the GFS and EURO show this sfc low developing in the Western
Atlantic which would keep our CWA out of the most favorable
dynamics for strong convection. At this time, SFL's best chance
for precip from this system will come on Sunday into very early
Monday morning as the system propagates NE. With current models
showing the low forming off the FL east coast, our chances of
strong storms from this system are low at this time. As always,
exact timing and strength are subject to change as model
depictions can change this far out.

Details...

Thursday: Our coldest morning of the extended period will
come on Thursday as a weak frontal boundary clears the area on
Wednesday. Lows late Wednesday/early Thursday morning will range
from the mid-to-upper 40s along the lake region to the mid-50s in
the interior and Western SFL peninsula with upper 50s along the east
coast. Thursday will also be the driest of the period thanks to
northerly flow filtering in lower dewpoints.

Friday: As the low level wind flow begins to shift in response to
the eastward progression of the ridge of high pressure, prevailing
flow will gradually shift from a north direction to a
northeasterly/easterly direction during the day on Friday. This will
act to return moisture and higher dew points to the area on Friday
and slowly begin to moderate the residual air mass in place over
South Florida. This trend will continue into Saturday as flow veers
more southeasterly acting to continue the gradual warming trend
across the region out ahead of the next frontal boundary during the
second half of the weekend.

Saturday-Monday: As mentioned in the opening synoptic paragraph
above, there is uncertainty regarding the setup during this time
frame. Models currently depict the sfc low developing off the east
FL coast on Sunday which would keep Saturday mainly dry, but
still with the chance of an isolated shower. This developing
feature could bring the greatest POPs on Sunday with the GFS
showing PWATs of 1.6 inches for SFL. As it deepens, models show
this as a fast- moving system with our CWA being clear of any
potential weather impacts by Monday. Stay tuned for forecast
updates regarding the development of this system as small changes
can have big implications for exact SFL impacts.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Northeast to easterly winds ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. Brief period of MVFR BKN cigs possible at sites this
afternoon. Showers will begin to increase with an approaching
frontal boundary later today. Main concern will be reduced cigs
as the frontal boundary works through overnight into tomorrow
morning. IFR cigs may be possible at all sites but will leave that
up to future forecast packages before beginning to add
restrictions will go SCT low cigs. NW winds behind the FROPA with
clearing not til Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Scattered showers as a frontal boundary moves through the region. A
wind surge associated with the frontal passage will increase winds
over 20 knots for portions of South Florida waters. Therefore, a
Small Craft advisory goes into effect at 4PM EST. Locally heavy
rainfall and elevated seas are possible in and around any shower
activity. Winds gradually diminish behind the frontal boundary.

BEACHES...

A NE swell will gradually diminish today, however increasing
northerly to northeasterly winds will allow for favorable conditions
for rip currents through late this week. Therefore, a high risk of
rip currents will remain at the Palm Beach County beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            63  73  59  76 /  30  50  20  20
West Kendall     62  75  57  76 /  30  40  20  20
Opa-Locka        62  74  57  76 /  30  50  20  20
Homestead        61  74  57  76 /  20  50  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  62  73  59  75 /  40  50  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  62  72  58  74 /  40  50  20  20
Pembroke Pines   61  73  56  75 /  40  50  20  20
West Palm Beach  60  70  55  73 /  50  50  20  20
Boca Raton       62  72  57  74 /  40  50  20  20
Naples           57  70  51  73 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ650-670.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ676.

&&

Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Kelly
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Rizzuto

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
930 AM EST Tue Feb 8 2022

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
090830-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
930 AM EST Tue Feb 8 2022

...High Risk of Rip Currents for the Palm Beaches...
...Dangerous Marine Conditions For Small Craft...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents across the Palm
Beaches.

Marine: Increased winds associated with a cold front moving through
the region will lead to increased winds to 20 to 25 knots across
portions of the Gulf and Atlantic waters. Therefore, a Small Craft
Advisory has been issued for this afternoon into the early morning
hours.

Waterspout:A diffuse boundary with light winds over the Atlantic
waters will lead to a limited risk of waterspouts today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A high risk of rip currents will continue through late week across
the Palm Beaches.

Hazardous marine conditions may be possible this weekend with another
frontal system moving through South Florida.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.