Increasing westerly winds ahead of an upper level system helped to produce high winds along the higher terrain, especially the southeast mountains and adjacent lower elevations where winds up to 75 mph occurred.
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The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
Increasing westerly winds ahead of an upper level system helped to produce high winds along the higher terrain, especially the southeast mountains and adjacent lower elevations where winds up to 75 mph occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 27, 3:45 PM MST, 3 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 345 PM MST Tue Dec 27 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 304 PM MST Tue Dec 27 2022 Key Messages: 1) Snow will begin increasing along the mountains tonight and continue through tomorrow. 2) Strong to severe winds are expected along the mountains and immediate lower elevations tonight. Tonight and Tomorrow Synopsis... Active and impactful weather is expected for southern Colorado for the short term period. Synoptically, a large trough will begin approaching the Colorado region, with westerly winds increasing ahead of this system. This trough will start to increase precipitation along the mountains and bring strong to severe winds to parts of southern Colorado. More details about expected forecast conditions and hazards are discussed below. Tonight Discussion... Precipitation: Snow is anticipated to increase across the higher terrain along the Continental Divide and spreading eastward starting early tonight and continuing through tomorrow morning. As the aforementioned trough from the west begins approaching the Colorado region, westerly winds will increase ahead of the system, and a Pacific moisture stream will be advected across the region. The westerly winds and approaching trough will increase orographic and synoptic forcing respectively. With the increased forcing mechanisms and the appreciable uptick in moisture, scattered to widespread snow, heavy at times, is expected along the mountains overnight, with the San Juan Mountains seeing the heaviest widespread snow. Given the Pacific origin of this system, and the warmer, but still cooler air, associated with it, snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR) will be on the lower end, and snow is expected to be heavier and wetter in nature. Impacts with this snow will be snow covered roads and difficult driving conditions along mountain roads. Also given the increasing winds, despite the heavier nature of the snow, blowing snow and reduced visibilities will be likely. Winds: With the increasing westerly winds aloft from the approaching trough, strong to severe winds are expected along the mountains, with some of those winds making it down to adjacent lower elevations. The strongest winds will remain along the mountain tops, given they're sticking up into the area with strongest winds. With that said though, both a developing inversion and reverse shear near mountain tops will act as a barrier and strong winds will be pushed down closer to the surface. This is supported in higher-res model guidance such as the HREF and the HRRR. Most mountain ranges and immediate lower elevations, will experience sustained winds 30-50 mph, with gusts up to 70 mph, though isolated gusts over 70 mph will be possible. The strongest winds are expected along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and particularly the southern Sangre de Cristo. This will be from the better perpendicular orientation of the westerly winds in relation to the north and south mountain range. Sustained winds along this area expected to be 40 to 60 mph, with gusts over 75 mph expected. These winds could cause structural damage and will make it difficult to drive, especially for large and high profile vehicles. Temperatures: Overnight temperatures are expected to be relatively rather mild for southern Colorado in December. Winds at the surface will also increase and take on a more westerly component ahead of the approaching trough. These winds will become downsloping winds and induce compressional warming over the southern Colorado region. Not only that, but clouds will also increase ahead of the system, which will limit radiational cooling potential. Given these factors, temperatures tonight will be 5-15°F above average values for this time of year. Tomorrow Discussion... Precipitation: Through the day Wednesday, snow is expected to continue along the mountains. The trough at this point will be starting to push over the Colorado region, with strong westerly/southwesterly winds persisting over the area. Along with that, the Pacific moisture plume will still be advecting over the southern Colorado region. Given the orographic and synoptic forcing still in place, along with the moisture stream, snow will persist over the mountains, with an increase in snow along the eastern mountain ranges as well. The San Juan Mountains are still expected to experience the heaviest snow, as they will have a better orientation with the developing southwesterly winds, and therefore, stronger orographic forcing. During the afternoon, as the cooler air aloft approaches with the trough, and lapse rates steepen, modest instability is expected to develop, with MUCAPE values around 100- 200 J/kg, which is supported in higher-res model guidance. Given this, it is possible that snow during the afternoon takes on a more transient convective nature. Places under any more convectively driven snow bands will experience quick burst in snowfall and quick drops in visibility. Otherwise, this snow during the day will continue to impact the roads, with additional snow covering the roads, and more blowing snow and general drops in visibility. Winds: During the day Wednesday, stronger winds along the terrain are expected to diminish. Throughout the late morning hours, the mountain top inversion and reverse shear in place are expected to dissipate. Along with that, winds aloft will start to take on a more southwesterly component, meaning the orientation to the mountains is less favorable for stronger downsloping winds. Given the conditions above, severe winds will decrease quickly late morning/early afternoon across the southern Colorado mountains. With that all said though, winds aloft will still be strong across the region, and sustained winds of 30-45 mph are expected, with gusts over 50 mph possible. While winds will lessen, driving in large and high profile vehicles may still be difficult. Temperatures: Daytime temperatures will be warm across southern Colorado for Wednesday. Winds will take on a southwesterly/southerly component for the majority of the day. These winds will help induce more downsloping and compressional warming across southern Colorado. With that said though, extensive cloud cover is expected in response to the trough pushing over the region. So, downsloping winds will help to warm the region to above average values for this time of year, but the cloud cover will keep things cooler than they otherwise would be. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 304 PM MST Tue Dec 27 2022 Key Messages: 1. Chance of snowfall over the plains and mountains Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 2. Chance of snow over the Continental Divide this weekend. 3. Another chance of snowfall over the plains on Monday. Wednesday night into Thursday... A huge trough from a low centered over southwestern Canada will move closer to our area. This will increase winds, especially over the high elevations. This trough will be producing a cold front, and will be bringing moisture from the Pacific ocean, providing snowfall to the plains and mountains. Heaviest snowfall amounts east of the mountains will be in Teller county and Monument Hill with 2 to 4 inches possible. The snow in the plains should subside after 5 AM Thursday morning. The cold front will bring the temperatures down just below seasonal averages. Low temperatures will be in the 20s in the plains and in the single digits and teens in the mountains and mountain valleys. Daytime highs will be in the 40s in the plains and 20s and 30s in the mountains and mountain valleys. Friday and beyond... After the trough moves out of our area, a small ridge of high pressure will be our temporary visitor. This ridge will be pretty weak and it will have some waves that will bring some snow over Sawatch and San Juan mountains over the course of the weekend. Temperatures will remain just under seasonal norms through the weekend. Less cloud cover will mean plenty of radiational cooling, bringing overnight low temperatures in the teens in the plains and single digits in the mountains and mountain valleys. This pattern will stay in place throughout the New Year weekend. Ensemble models are in agreement for the next change to start off the first week of the New Year. GFS, Euro and Canadian models are indicating a trough coming in off the coast of California will make its way into our area. These models also agree that once the trough reaches our area, a closed low pressure system, wrapping around moisture, will form. Where the models diverge and bring uncertainty is that the GFS and Canadian models have the closed low forming north of our area and moving into Nebraska. The Euro models have the closed low forming to our south and then moving northeast. This could mean the difference between heavier snowfall and light to no snowfall in the plains. After Monday, the rest of the forecast period shows to be fairly quiet with maybe a few sprinkles of snow over the San Juan and Sawatch Mountains. Temperatures should be just below seasonal averages. -Riser && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 344 PM MST Tue Dec 27 2022 VFR visibility and ceilings at KALS, KCOS and KPUB throughout the forecast period. Winds at KCOS and KPUB will be light throughout the forecast period. KALS will have a period of gust out of the southwest in excess of 20 KTS from around 00Z to 02Z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ060. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ068. High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Wednesday for COZ072>075-087. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ228>230- 233. && SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...RISER AVIATION...RISER
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pueblo CO 502 AM MST Tue Dec 27 2022 COZ058>089-093>099-281215- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 502 AM MST Tue Dec 27 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight High fire danger is expected this afternoon due to westerly winds gusting up to 45 mph and humidity values as low as 10 percent for Pueblo, Huerfano and Las Animas Counties. Please avoid activities that could spark a fire. High winds, with gusts over 80 mph, are expected to begin this evening for the higher elevations of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, down into western portions of Huerfano County. High profile vehicles could be blown over due to the strong winds. Periods of snow, which could be heavy at times, are expected along the Continental Divide beginning tonight. 3 to 6 inches of snow will be possible tonight over the eastern San Juans, with 1 to 2 inches over the Sawatch Mountains as well. Heavy and wind driven snow could lead to poor visibility and hazardous travel conditions tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday High winds will be possible over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and higher elevations of western Huerfano County Wednesday morning. Snow, moderate to heavy at times, will continue along the Continental Divide. The heaviest snowfall is expected over the San Juan Range, where 1 to 2 feet is forecast to fall through Thursday. Lesser amounts of snow, generally 3 to 6 inches, is expected over the La Garita Range and Central Mountains. Gusty winds near 50 mph will produce areas of blowing snow causing hazardous travel conditions over mountain passes. Snow will be possible over the Palmer Divide Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible, with locally higher amounts under any snow bands that develop. Light accumulations are possible as far south as Highway 50. Light snow will remain possible on Friday along the Continental Divide. Another storm system will bring heavy snow to the Continental Divide over the weekend into early next week. Snow may also be possible across the Plains Sunday into Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be possible over portions of the region. EHR/88
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, December 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1073263, 1073264, 1073260.