High Wind in California, November 24, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
417 AM PST Thu Nov 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...24/236 AM.

Warm and dry conditions are expected across the area through
Friday, Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds are expected with
critical fire weather conditions possible this morning until
Friday. For the weekend, a cooling trend can be expected with a
chance of rain next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...24/416 AM.

Pressure gradients were increasingly offshore this morning, now
running 4.6 mb offshore between KLAX and KDAG at 11Z. Looks as
though the GFS forecast (-4.8 mb at 12Z) and the EC forecast (-5.2
mb at 12Z) will be very close, while the WRF (-7.3 mb) is
overdone or at the very least too quick. Strong NE winds were
occurring in the mountains of L.A. and VTU Counties, and were
beginning to spread into some valley areas. Wind gusts have
reached 78 mph at the very windy Magic Mountain Truck Trail site
at 4400 feet in the L.A. County mountains, but most other
mountain sites were reporting wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph.

Synoptically, an upper low was dropping southward through New
Mexico this morning. This is typically a tad too far east to
bring great upper support for strong winds. However, there is
some cold air advection across the area, with good subsidence, and
850 mb winds do peak at 50 to 55 knots at 18Z and even 21Z, so
expect winds to really strengthen quickly and significantly this
morning. The upper low will drop slowly southward into northern
Mexico tonight and Fri. An upper ridge amplifying just off the
West Coast today will move into CA tonight and Fri. Low level
gradients will weaken some tonight and Fri, but remain strong
enough to continue gusty winds in the wind prone locations of L.A.
and VTU Counties through Fri morning.

Expect winds to increase sharply as the typically do near
sunrise, and become more widespread in the valleys of northern
and western L.A. Counties, most of Ventura County, the Ventura
County Coastal Plain, the Santa Monica Mountains and the Malibu
Coast.

High Wind Warnings are in effect for the L.A. County mountains
including the Santa Monicas, the Santa Clarita Valley, northern
and western San Fernando Valley, and the central and southeastern
Ventura County valleys through this afternoon, with Wind
Advisories to follow through Friday morning. Wind Advisories are
in effect through Friday morning in the Ventura mountains,
Ventura County Coastal Plain and the Malibu Coast.

Skies should be mostly clear through Fri. Max temps today should
be up a few degrees in most coastal areas and possibly lower
valley areas, with some cooling in the windier valley locations
(due to cold advection), and cooling in the mtns and Antelope
Valley. On Fri, there should be little change in max temps,
except possibly some cooling near the immediate coast, and possibly
slight warming in the valleys, mtns and Antelope Valley.

A trough will move into the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
significantly totally flattening the ridge across the region.
Heights and thicknesses will fall significantly. Gradients will
turn onshore in the afternoon. There is a chance that some low
clouds will return to coastal areas late Fri night and Sat
morning, but that's a tough call. Max temps should be down
several degrees in most areas Sat, at least west of the
mountains.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...23/209 PM.

Low confidence in the rain forecast through the middle of next
week. EPS solutions have definitely trended drier across southwest
California as the upper level pattern has shifted to more of an
over-land trajectory, at least through next Wednesday. This is
still early enough in the game where models can shift back,
however that window is closing quickly and for now rain chances
and potential amounts are definitely on the low side.

Higher confidence in a much cooler pattern next week as the ridge
this week gives way to the first trough, likely passing to the
north and east Monday into early Tuesday. This in turn will shift
offshore flow to strongly onshore by Monday with a possible
return of marine layer stratus, at least for a day. With the
trough taking more of an inland track rain chances across the
area have lowered but not zero. Any rain amounts would likely be
very light.

Light offshore flow and clearing skies will return following the
trough Tuesday afternoon and remain through at least Wednesday.
Temperatures will warm slightly but remain a few degrees below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0626Z.

At 0504Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.

Moderate to high confidence in 06Z TAFs with VFR conditions
expected. Lower confidence for the timing of gusty easterly winds
for KCMA, KOXR, KSMO, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Moderate to
strong wind shear near these areas and over the mountains/passes
is expected through the period, lasting into Thursday afternoon.

KLAX...High confidence in 06Z TAF. Good confidence that any east
wind component will remain below 8 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Winds may become gusty
around 10Z, and again around 18Z. Lower confidence in wind
direction and exact timing of gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...23/854 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. For tonight and Thursday, high confidence winds and seas
remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels except for a
30-40% chance of SCA level northeast winds across PZZ676 on
Thursday. For Thursday night through Friday night, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all the Outer
Waters. For Saturday through Monday, high confidence in SCA level
winds and seas developing with a 30% chance of Gale force winds on
Monday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Sunday and Monday, high confidence in SCA level winds and a 50%
chance of SCA level seas.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For late tonight and Thursday,
high confidence in SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to
Santa Monica and out to the Channel Islands. For Catalina Island,
high confidence in winds remaining below 15 knots through
Thursday. For Thursday night through Sunday, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday, there is a
60-70% chance of SCA level winds.

A long period west swell will fill in the area on Friday, bringing
breaking waves further off the coast line. Another similar swell
will come in on Sunday, with similar conditions lasting through
Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Friday for zones
      53-354-355-362. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for
      zones 54-88-358-359-363-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PST
      Friday for zones 54-88-358-359-363-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 11 AM PST Friday for zones
      254-288-358-359-363-547. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM
      PST Friday for zones 354-355-362. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...DB/MW
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox