High Wind in Arizona, November 24, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
308 AM MST Thu Nov 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching system will bring gusty winds and
colder temperatures for today. High pressure returns on Friday,
with warmer temperatures and light winds expected through the
weekend. Another system may impact the region with colder
temperatures and a chance for precipitation early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...An upper-level low over New Mexico will
continue to meander southward through the day today as a ridge
strengthens off the California Coast. The resulting increased
pressure gradient cases a strong upper-level jet to be in place
over the eastern half of Arizona through much of the day.

Model soundings show mixing up to around 700-650 mb this morning
into the afternoon, where guidance continues to indicate winds of
around 40-50 kts. Mixing combined with the pressure gradient effects
should help to promote gusts in the 30-40 mph range over much of
the High Country through this afternoon. Locally stronger winds of
up to 55 mph will be possible along and downwind of the Mogollon
Rim (from about Flagstaff to Happy Jack to Forest Lakes) and the
Bradshaw Mountains. A Wind Advisory is in effect from this morning
through the evening to highlight these areas. Winds are expected
to begin to subside this evening as we begin to decouple.

In addition the the wind, a sharp drop in temperatures is expected
on today with the low overhead. Daytime highs are expected to be
around 35-45 deg F over the high country, and 50-60 deg F over the
lower elevations.

Friday through Sunday...As the upper-level low departs to the east,
heights begin to rise over Arizona as high pressure builds off the
Pacific. A return of warmer temperatures and lighter winds are
expected to finish out the week.

Monday through Wednesday...Guidance continues to indicate the
potential for a longwave trough moving into the region starting
late Monday and into Tuesday. However, 00Z guidance has backed off
quite a bit on the depth of the trough and has trended a bit
further west. As a result, precipitation amounts have come down
quite a bit with this system. WPC cluster analysis still shows
differing solutions among ensemble members in regards to both
timing and amplitude.

Therefore, confidence continues to remain low in next weeks storm
potential. At this point in time, some high elevation snow looks
possible, however exact accumulations still remain in question.
Nevertheless, a return of much colder temperatures and more
winter-like weather looks to potentially take hold for the start
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAF package...VFR conditions will continue
through the TAF period with mostly clear skies. Strong north to
northeast winds will increase through midday with wind speeds
between 10 to 20 knots. Widespread wind gusts between 25 to 40 knots
with the highest gusts expected along a KFLG-KSEZ-KPAN line. Areas
just south and west of the Mogollon Rim may see gusts near 50 knots.
Winds will gradually taper off tonight into Friday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cold daytime temperatures and gusty northeast winds
are expected today with wind speeds around 25 to 35 mph and gusts
between 35 to 45 mph. Some locations just south and west of the
Mogollon Rim may see gusts up to 55 mph. On Friday, temperatures
will warm as the northeast winds become much lighter.

Saturday through Monday...Temperatures will remain warm with dry
conditions expected into early next week. Light west to southwest
flow will persist through Sunday before increasing southwest winds
arrive on Monday. Temperatures will start to cool on Monday with
chances of precipitation for late Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ015-016-018-
115-116-118.

&&

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff