High Wind in California, November 19 to 20, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
939 PM PST Fri Nov 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A shortwave trough to the north will generate another dry and windy
weather pattern into the weekend across the region. Gusty Santa Ana
winds will howl through passes, canyons, and western valleys
starting this evening through much of Saturday. This will bring a
higher fire weather and wind damage threat to these areas. Dry weak
offshore flow will persist through much of the week with near to
slightly below normal temperatures. A ridge of high pressure will
amplify over the West Coast near the Thanksgiving holiday, leading
to slightly warmer conditions and a chance for more Santa Ana winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Evening Update: No changes were necessary this evening and the
discussion from Friday afternoon (below) remains valid.

SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)...

Mostly clear skies with some thicker cirrus clouds over our northern
areas have made for another nice afternoon out there with fall-like
temperatures. A shortwave trough will push its way south, generating
a stronger pressure gradient with dry northerly flow aloft. Santa
Ana winds will start to pick up after sunset tonight per latest
HRRR/WRF, becoming gusty near and below passes near the Inland
Empire. These winds will strengthen and expand overnight, peaking on
Saturday morning for the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino and
Orange County mountain areas, as well as much of the Inland Empire
and areas of southern Orange County.

The forecast remains on track to see widespread wind gusts 40-50 MPH
across the region, with areas near favored passes closer to 65 MPH
at times. San Diego County will see similar winds more out of the
east with gusts 40 to 55 MPH, more confined to the foothills.
Fire danger will increase with this event as well as damaging
winds possible; please be safe while driving! As the trough pushes
south and east, winds will start to decrease on Sunday with gusty
winds lingering for San Diego County into Sunday afternoon.

Cold temperatures will continue overnight the next couple nights
with this dry airmass, especially wind sheltered locations during
the early morning hours. Many areas of the mountains and high desert
will dip into the 20s and 30s each morning through the weekend into
next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thanksgiving)...
A more tranquil upper air pattern will take place for the early part
of next week. Near to slightly below average temperatures will
continue with weak offshore flow. An area of high pressure off the
West Coast looks to strengthen by the middle of the week. This will
bring warming to much of the area, and depending on exact placement,
more Santa Ana winds by the Thanksgiving holiday. As of now this
event looks weaker than the one this weekend. Keep an eye on the
forecast for the latest weather for your turkey day!

&&

.AVIATION...
190430Z...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through Saturday
evening.

Gusty NE to E winds will continue to strengthen below the
passes/canyons and on the favored coastal slopes overnight. Surface
gusts 30-40 kt and isolated gusts to 50 kt possible in wind-prone
areas. Periods of LLWS may occur near KSNA, KONT and KSBD this
evening prior to winds surfacing Saturday morning. Only moderate
confidence in timing of winds surfacing at KONT in the TAFs. MOD-STG
up/downdrafts over and SW/W of the mountains through Saturday as
well. Winds weakening after 21Z Saturday with gusts lowering to 20-
30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Pockets of northeast winds gusts approaching 20 kt are possible over
the inner coastal waters from Carlsbad northward Saturday morning.
Winds will weaken Saturday afternoon. No hazardous marine weather
expected Saturday afternoon through Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A building south swell of 3 ft/15-18 sec from 190 degrees is
forecast to arrive on Monday, peaking late Monday and Tuesday. This
will generate elevated to locally high surf of 4-7 ft on south
facing beaches early next week, as well as strong rip and longshore
currents at all beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Santa Ana winds out of the north will increase after sunset this
evening, peaking on Saturday morning. Breezy winds will begin near
the Cajon Pass, moving south through the Inland Empire, then into
much of central and southern Orange County. Relative humidity
values will remain above 15 percent for much of the night,
lowering 10-13 percent by Saturday morning and afternoon. San
Diego County will see gusty east winds starting early Saturday
morning. These low RH readings combined with gusty winds will
lead to critical fire weather conditions across these northern
areas. Widespread wind gusts over 40 MPH will be common in these
areas, with peak gusts near 65 MPH in favored passes/canyons. Please
see the Red Flag Warning for more information. Elevated fire
weather conditions will continue for much of next week with weaker
offshore winds.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Saturday for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside
     County Mountains-Including The San Jacinto Ranger District
     Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino County
     Mountains-Including The Mountain Top And Front Country
     Ranger Districts Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San
     Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys  -The Inland Empire-
     San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains-
     Including The Trabuco Ranger District of the Cleveland
     National Forest.

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 2 PM PST Sunday for San
     Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys.

PZ...None.

&&

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...APR/JMB
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS