High Wind in California, January 3, 2022

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
303 PM PST Sun Jan 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Clouds and southerly winds are on the increase ahead of
a strong winter storm. Periods of strong southerly winds, locally
heavy rainfall, and high elevation snow will persist this afternoon
through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Southerly winds and cloud cover continue to increase
this afternoon as a front approaches the coast. The first, and
likely most impactful hazard from this approaching storm will be the
strong southerly winds. Wind-advisory level gusts will reach the
ridges by this afternoon, and then expand to the coast this evening
with gusts over 50 mph. Wind products continue unchanged with this
afternoon's update, including the High Wind Warning for isolated
portions of coastal Del Norte County where some of the strong gusts
may exceed 60mph. Snow will begin later this evening for the inland
mountains of Trinity county. The most meaningful snow amounts can be
anticipated above 3000 ft; however, there will be an initial
critical transitory period of snow elevation rise which may allow
for up to a couple inches for some isolated lower elevation
locations/passes. Oregon Mountain Pass, Buckhorn Summit and Trinity
Center are included for potential travel impacts. Trinity Center may
see over several inches.

Wind speeds will likely peak early Monday morning while rainfall
rates pick up. Some weak instability and steeper lapse rates will
arrive in the early afternoon Monday. The precipitation will
transition to a more convective nature and will allow for some of
the strongest wind gusts to mix down. The trough will begin lifting
north Monday night as a warm front and some higher PWATS are
ushered, bringing another round of rainfall through Tuesday night.
Periods of lighter rainfall will continue through much of next week
as shortwaves ride over a building ridge. Ensemble guidance and
cluster analysis point to another trough possible late this week.

Regarding rainfall, there will generally be 1-2 inches of rainfall,
with over 3 for the higher elevations. There remains only very low
probabilities for rivers to reach Action Stage.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail into tonight, especially
south of Del Norte County, where some lower ceilings below 3000 feet
may start to reach in from the north toward Monday morning.
Otherwise the main issue for aviation will be strengthening
southerly winds, peaking late tonight into early Monday morning,
then remaining strong but gradually backing off later Monday while
veering to southwesterly. Ceilings will eventually lower along with
VSBY as rain pushes in and increases in intensity with the approach
of a cold front Monday morning at ACV and CEC. Those lower ceilings
and rain will expand southeastward across northern California
through the day. Wind shear may also be a concern at CEC and ACV
with very strong winds aloft associated with a low-level jet. /AAD

&&

.MARINE...In advance of an approaching cold front, winds are already
gusting 35 to 40 kt across our northern coastal waters this
afternoon. Those winds will continue to ramp up a bit more tonight
into early Monday morning, with 35 to 40 kt gusts expanding
southward past Cape Mendocino, and 50 kt gusts likely at times
adjacent Pt St George. As the front passes through, winds will
remain strong through the afternoon, but gradually ease and veer to
more southwesterly through Monday night. Steep short period seas
will continue to build tonight through Monday. While winds and
short-period seas diminish Tuesday, a large west-northwest swell
will arrive by Monday night and persist into Tuesday. Even as winds
diminish, combined seas of 15 ft or more will continue as a result
of this swell. Expect much improved conditions Wednesday and
especially Thursday, with lowering seas and only some lingering
light to occasionally moderate southerly breezes. /AAD

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...As southerly winds increase across the coastal
waters today, tidal anomalies are turning more positive, and will
likely continue to do so through the next couple of high tide cycles
Monday and Tuesday. Expect a half-foot to a foot of additional water
on top of the already high astronomical tides that will still be
around 8.7 to 8.8 feet at the north spit and Crescent City tidal
gauges. The swell incoming that threatened to contribute to coastal
storm surge flooding now appears to not be arriving until at least
late afternoon if not evening, so that is less of a concern Monday.
Still, with these wind velocities and tides, coastal flooding will
be more substantial that usual, with with local flooding possible in
additional low-lying coastal spots around the Samoa Peninsula, near
Centerville Beach, and water running up over highway 101 at low
spots between Klamath and Crescent City. Be ready for temporary road
closures in these areas.

Beachgoers should use extra caution Monday and Tuesday, and folks
should just avoid rocky outcroppings and jetties, especially near
high tide. Even as the astronomical tides drop a bit on Tuesday,
that will likely still allow for localized coastal flooding. /AAD

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Monday for CAZ108-110-
     111-114.

     High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM PST
     Monday for CAZ101.

     Coastal Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday
     afternoon for CAZ101-103.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday
     for CAZ103.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for CAZ102-104>106.

     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 4 AM PST
     Tuesday for CAZ107.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Warning until 1 PM PST Monday for PZZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     PZZ455-475.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Monday for
     PZZ455-475.

&&

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