The large trough of low pressure over the Western States that brought several days of windy to very windy conditions was centered over central California/Lake Tahoe area the morning of May 11. This brought one more day of strong dry winds to northern Arizona as it moved southeast and across southern Nevada by the evening.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
The large trough of low pressure over the Western States that brought several days of windy to very windy conditions was centered over central California/Lake Tahoe area the morning of May 11. This brought one more day of strong dry winds to northern Arizona as it moved southeast and across southern Nevada by the evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 1:38 PM MST, 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 138 PM MST Wed May 11 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Strong southwest winds persist through this evening before decreasing overnight. Widespread critical fire weather conditions will continue during this time. A warming trend arrives Thursday, with summer-like temperatures and lighter winds in store through the weekend. Cooler temperatures with increasing winds could make a return for next week. && .DISCUSSION...Those strong southwest winds for today have arrived with wind prone sites reporting gusts near 50 mph. Intensity will increase throughout the remainder of the afternoon across northern Arizona as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a passing low pressure trough currently centered over Nevada. As this trough lifts and migrates towards the northeast within the next few hours, its core upper-level jet energy along with surface cold front push through northern Arizona allowing winds to reach their peak. This set up will also coincide with clearing sky conditions as well as peak timing for sufficient mixing of those stronger mid to upper-level winds making their way down to the surface. Widespread gusts of 40-50 mph can be expected during this time with a few locations nearing 60 mph. The current Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory remain in effect through this evening. The winds begin to decrease around sunset for areas southwest of the Mogollon Rim. Gusty winds look to last a bit longer tonight for locations mainly along higher terrain and across northeast Arizona. Expect the winds to taper by midnight for all of northern Arizona as the trough moves out of the region, heading northeastward. Colder low temperatures are likely tonight with clear sky conditions, lighter winds, and cooler post-frontal air. Gradients relax for Thursday and Friday as high pressure begins to build over the southwest. Anticipate much lighter westerly winds and warmer temperatures, however remaining very dry during this time. For the weekend, temperatures become summer-like across Arizona with highs 10-15 degrees above average as the ridge of high pressure amplifies. This translates to highs in the 90s, nearing 100 degrees in the valleys and upper 70s, low 80s in the high country for Saturday and Sunday. Even though the heat will be the main concern for the weekend, the extremely dry air will be another with widespread single digit humidity values forecast for both afternoons. Southwest breezes return as well becoming more enhanced for Sunday afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph likely at this time. This will result in heightened fire weather concerns as conditions will be near critical. Beyond the weekend, long range model guidance is mixed at this time. The current GEFS suggests the ridge weakening throughout next week with a return of a longwave trough and stronger winds by next Thursday and Friday. The EPS shows this potential pattern development as well, however the trough isn't as deep. With assistance from the ensemble data, the trends seem to be favoring cooler temperatures with increasing winds at the moment in the long range. The one thing that is becoming more certain is that any chance for precipitation for the next week remains low to nonexistent at this time. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF package...Look for VFR conditions over the next 24 hours under clear skies. Through 03z, southwest winds of 20 to 30 knots gusting to 35 knots will be common across northern Arizona with gusts as high as 50 knots along and north of a KGCN- KFLG-KSOW line. Winds will gradually diminish overnight becoming light, generally at 5 to 15 knots, by sunrise and through the day Thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect until mid evening. Winds will turn lighter on Thursday and Friday as they become more west to northwest. Look for dry conditions and warmer daytime temperatures. Saturday through Monday...Dry and very warm conditions are expected. Lighter west to northwest winds are forecast for Saturday before gusty southwest winds return on Sunday and Monday. The Haines Index will range from 5 to 6 through the period. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104>118- 137>140. Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004>017-037>040. && PUBLIC...LaGuardia AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The peak wind gust recorded in Tuba City was 59 MPH at 215 PM MST.
The peak wind gust recorded in Tuba City was 59 MPH at 215 PM MST.
The peak wind gust recorded in Tuba City was 59 MPH at 215 PM MST.
The weather station at Four Springs (6560 feet elevation) measured a peak wind gust of 61 MPH at 519 PM MST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1018216, 1018217, 1018215, 1018214.