Isolated severe storms resulted in several reports of large hail and isolated wind damage in the form of downed trees and limbs. 5 inches of rain in about 2 hours over parts of Isabella and Mecosta Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRR wrote it up.
Isolated severe storms resulted in several reports of large hail and isolated wind damage in the form of downed trees and limbs. Back-building thunderstorms moved from Isabella County back toward Big Rapids and resulted in 3.0 to 4.5 inches of rain in about 2 hours over parts of Isabella and Mecosta Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 9:18 AM EST, 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1018 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 1018 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 We are monitoring the convection over our northeast CWA as the storms have had a tendency to back build. The greatest instability is in a narrow axis between US-31 and US-131. There is weak frontal boundary that the storms are developing on. Over time I would expect the storms to back build toward the lake shore. That is where the instability is highest. There is more of a cap there but the latest RAP model soundings suggest the cap will weaken some this afternoon. Our Hi res models have not done all that well with these storms. Nonetheless I would expect the biggest threat from these storms will be locally heavy rain since the storms will only be moving slowly and large hail since there mid level lapse rates are near 7.5c and there is fairly fat cape in the -10c to -30c layer. The bottom line is the thunderstorms over the next few hours will be closer and closer to the lake shore. I would think the I-69 area had the least chance for convection this afternoon and the area between US-31 and US-131, north of Allegan has the highest risk for afternoon thunderstorms. Again they will be slow moving so heavy rain and large hail are the biggest threat, gusty winds are possible to as down draft capes are near 1400 j/kg. && .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 - A Few Showers and Thunderstorms Today Overnight thunderstorm activity has stayed mostly north of our forecast region, but storm motion may bring a few cells into west central Lower Michigan into the morning hours. Given a substantial dew point gradient across the Lower Peninsula (richer low level moisture across western portions of the state) and 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, a few storms may persist but inland extent will be limited and coverage will be small since the storms are fighting drier air above 700 mb and upper level ridging. The most likely region for this will be north of a Pentwater to Big Rapids line though perhaps locations as far south as a Muskegon to Newaygo line could receive a shower or storm. Given the slow movement of cells there could be very localized heavy downpours with a quick half inch to inch or more possible. For the remainder of today, a widely scattered shower or storm could develop along a weakly convergent lake breeze (if it develops, which is not a guarantee), though CAM solutions are varied with this scenario occurring or not. The few locations that may get rain today could get locally heavy downpours. Most locations should stay dry. - Dry Thursday and Friday, With Rain Chances Returning over Weekend After warm and dry days Thursday and Friday, a deepening upper low near the northern Great Plains as well as a retrograding upper low across the Mid Atlantic region will squash the 590s dm ridge later this week into the weekend. Model guidance is indicating some weak upper level divergence moving in after 18z Saturday as a 100 kt ULJ approaches Hudson Bay. Both the ECMWF and GFS show a mid level vorticity lobe moving through Lower Michigan around this time. Some EC ensemble members are supporting SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg. There is a fair amount of spread with ensemble PWAT values. Nevertheless, showers and some thunderstorms will likely be moving through during Saturday, especially from midday onward. Rain chances could linger into Sunday depending on the "pinwheeling" of vort lobes around the upper low that could serve as sources of mid level lift, though soundings look fairly dry above 850 mb. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 754 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 VFR conditions are expected at all the terminals except for MKG which may see reduced visibility at times today due to marine fog over Lake Michigan. Winds will generally be offshore, keeping fog offshore as well. However, winds could become light and variable this afternoon, which introduces a window for MVFR restrictions. Brief IFR is even possible with a possible incursion of ceilings below 1000 ft, but this is too low of a probability to include in the TAF. There is a low chance for thunderstorms areawide mainly between 20Z and 00Z. The terminals with the best chances of being impacted would be GRR and AZO. Again, the overall probability is too low to mention in the TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 Dense fog advisory remains in effect until 12z Thursday given the advection of higher dew points into the region over cold waters. Surface winds look potentially a bit erratic over the lake so fog movement is a bit questionable, though current thinking is that there will largely be a southeasterly to easterly component to the wind, which may help keep some of the dense fog away from the immediate coast. Still, models like the HRRR try to develop a subtle lake breeze so that would keep the threat for fog all the way to the coastline. No changes are planned to the headline at this time given this uncertainty. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849. && UPDATE...WDM DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...TJT MARINE...Hoving
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 452 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-120900- Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon- Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton- Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson- 452 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could produce some cloud to ground lightning and briefly heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Thunderstorms are possible Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. LMZ844>849-120900- St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI- Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI- Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI- 452 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Areas of dense fog will persist into Thursday morning across all zones. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
939 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022
MIZ040-046-111430-
Isabella MI-Clare MI-
939 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Isabella
and southeastern Clare Counties through 1030 AM EDT...
At 939 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clare, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clare... Farwell... Rosebush...
Delwin... Loomis... Weidman...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4410 8461 4366 8461 4373 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1339Z 284DEG 18KT 4383 8477
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MJSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1040 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022
MIZ040-111545-
Clare MI-
1040 AM EDT Wed May 11 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Clare
County through 1145 AM EDT...
At 1040 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Vogel Center, or 15 miles southeast of Lake City, moving southeast at
15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Harrison... Long Lake... Leota...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4416 8461 4398 8461 4405 8509 4410 8509
4416 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1440Z 309DEG 15KT 4415 8502
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MJSThe Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 110 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:59 UTC.
3 hail, 2 flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooded fields and some minor road damage in and around Rosebush.
Up to one inch diameter hail was reported near Remus.
Hail up to quarter sized covered portions of M-66.
Flooding from heavy rain resulted in road closures and damage to roads, bridges and culverts in Big Rapids with businesses and public spaces impacted. Ferris State University had multiple buildings take on water.
Several trees were blown down near to north of White Cloud.
The public reported one inch diameter hail.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1068662, 1026719, 1026720, 1068663, 1026721, 1026722.