Hail in Minnesota, May 11, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
649 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Key Messages:

 - Persistent strong/severe storm chances today-Friday

 - Very Warm Thu - Records? Cooling (seasonable) for next week

* TODAY STORM CHANCES: mostly west, north later in the day

This morning, interaction of low level moisture return/jet just
pushing north of quasi-stationary front, along with potential for
weak bit of shortwave energy aloft, will trigger a few
showers/storms over southern MN/northern IA, lifting north/northeast
through the morning. A variety of potential outcomes via the
meso/CAMS models, although most favor at least a smattering of
convection.

For the afternoon, juicy atmosphere with very fat CAPE profiles
(MUCAPEs of 4000+ J/kg). Capping inversion still in place, although
not quite as stout as the last few days. Daytime warming might not
be enough to break - but any weak forcing could be. Some of the meso
models show a weak area of sfc convergence (stationary front) across
southwest WI which could act as a focus for convection. In addition,
if some morning storms are realized, any left over outflow could
serve a similar purpose. Models aren't overly enthusiastic with the
chances, but if initiation does occur, the instability would fire
them quickly. Not a lot of wind shear in this area to help organize
development, but couldn't rule out a few pulsy stronger storms
(isold severe?) with some hail risk.

Stronger upper level shortwave trough/MCV progged to lift northeast
out of the TX panhandle today, moving across western IA/MN this
evening and then over northern WI overnight. At the sfc, stationary
front currently resting from southwest IA into northeast WI, will
make some progress north, edging into central MN and northern WI
later this evening. The shortwave will ride across the sfc boundary,
interacting with favorable moisture transport/low level jet across
MN this evening. Showers/storms should blossom, moving
north/northeast through the night time hours. The convection will
ride along the CAPE axis and have favorable deep layer shear aiding
storm development. Some strong/severe storms appear likely. Current
setup could hold the higher threat just west/north of the local
forecast area, but could skirt across parts of SE MN into north-
central WI.

* WARM THU...but cooling for the new week

Very persistent signal in the models for a steamy Thu with a warm
front to the north and 850 mb temps slated to climb 20+ C (925mb
25+). NAEFS/ECMWF 850 mb anomalies still hovering close to +2.5
(no change there from almost a week ago).

Highs should top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s with morning lows
close to 70 for some. A few records are possible, both for highs and
record warm lows.

In addition...with dewpoints in the mid 60s, heat indices will climb
into the low to mid 90s. Air conditioning will be needed.

The heat doesn't last long as cooler, more seasonable (and less
humid) air moves in post the late Thu/Friday cold frontal passage.
With progressive flow a loft with ridge-trough, ridge-trough
coupling tracking steadily trough, some fluctuations up/down in
temps are expected. Also, EC ensemble members showing a wide spread
in potential outcomes when it comes to temps past next
Tue...although trends generally center around the mid May normals.

* THU NIGHT/FRI STORM CHANCES: strong/severe risk continues

A line of strong/severe storms will be marching east across the
northern plains into western portions of MN/IA by Thu evening. CAPE
will be on the decrease as the line nears the local area, but the
GFS/NAM still pointing to a 2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE running north-south
across western WI by 06z Fri. Deeper shear will lie farther to the
west while BUFKIT soundings point to an increasing low level
inversion - likely making storms elevated if current progged pace
holds true. Hail potential would still be there, but wind risk would
become more limited.

Cold front (helping to drive the line of storms) set to extend from
northwest WI into central IA by Fri afternoon while its parent upper
level shortwave trough lifts into southern Canada. Convergence along
the front weakens as the flow/pressure gradient gets baggy.
Warm/moist/unstable airmass persists ahead of the front and bufkit
soundings suggest low level capping inversion could/should be
overcome by late afternoon. Expectation is for storms to rapidly
develop along the front, fueled by 2500-3500 J/kg SBCAPE. Strongest
deep layer shear continues to hold farther west into the cooler air,
but potential for 30+ kts in the 0-6km layer and 20+ kts in the 0-
3km...helping with storm organization. Low level shear is meager at
best. Strong/severe storms would be likely in this setup and could
produce hail rather quickly. Some wind risk too - until sfc layer
starts to stabilize with loss of daytime heating. Locally, the
strong/severe threat lies from northeast IA into central WI, from
late afternoon into early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Mid and high clouds from the convection over south-central
Minnesota kept the MVFR clouds from developing at the TAF sites
early this morning. Still some MVFR fog at KLSE, but this should
dissipate by 11.14z.

We will have to watch a MCV that will be lifting into southern
Minnesota. At this time, it looks like it will stay just northwest
of KRST this evening. Another concern for tonight is that a few
CAM models suggest that a line of showers and storms will develop
on the edge of cold pool to our north and northwest and this could
drop far enough south to impact the TAFS. At this time, confidence
was not high enough to include them in the TAFs

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
459 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

IAZ010-011-029-030-MNZ096-WIZ017-029-033-034-041>044-053>055-061-
121000-
Winneshiek-Allamakee-Fayette-Clayton-Houston-Taylor-Clark-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-
Richland-Grant-
459 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota...and southwest into central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An isolated storm is possible. Organized severe weather is not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered storms are possible late Thursday night. A few could be
strong with a hail threat.

More storms are possible Friday afternoon into the evening. A few
could be strong to severe with a hail and wind threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few spotter groups may be needed over the next few days.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ079-086>088-094-095-WIZ032-121000-
Mitchell-Howard-Floyd-Chickasaw-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-
Mower-Fillmore-Buffalo-
459 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered storms are possible. A few could become strong,
potentially severe this evening. Threats include hail and wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A line of strong to severe storms will approach the area from the
west late Thursday evening, weakening as they near the
Mississippi River. The main threats will be large hail and
damaging winds.

More storms are possible Friday afternoon into the evening. A few
could be strong, possibly severe, with a hail and wind threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few spotter groups may be needed over the next few days.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Rieck

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
727 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNZ086-111315-
Dodge MN-
727 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Dodge
County through 815 AM CDT...

At 726 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
West Concord, or 9 miles northwest of Dodge Center, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Dodge
County, including the following locations... County Roads 1 And 24,
Concord, Eden, County Roads 20 And 5, Highway 57 And 570th Street and
Berne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9304 4420 9269 4419 9268 4412 9268
      4405 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1226Z 254DEG 24KT 4416 9293

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Peters