Arizona, 2022Avalanche and High Wind in Arizona, May 1, 2022
May 1, 2022 · NWS FGZ · 4 events in 4 counties and zones
A trough diving through the Great Basin and into Colorado brought very windy and dry conditions northern Arizona. The windiest areas were just north of the Mogollon Rim.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 4
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A trough diving through the Great Basin and into Colorado brought very windy and dry conditions northern Arizona. The windiest areas were just north of the Mogollon Rim.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 1, 9:11 AM MST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 1, 9:11 AM MST, 2 hours 34 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
911 AM MST Sun May 1 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Very dry and warm weather will continue across the
region well into next week. Strong southwest winds are expected on
Sunday, with critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon. A
Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory are in effect for Sunday,
across all of the area. Use extreme caution and avoid open flame,
sparks, and parking on dry grass.
&&
.UPDATE...Southwest winds are already beginning to mix down with
gusts 30-35 mph across the high terrain. Expect winds to continue
to increase through the late morning/early afternoon with gusts
45-55 mph possible by the late afternoon. Areas of blowing dust
will be possible in the lower elevations. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for much of the area through this evening.
The strong winds in combination with very dry conditions will pose
a dangerous fire weather threat through the afternoon. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect today for all of Northern Arizona. Use
extreme caution and be fire wise.
The current forecast is on track with only minor edits needed this
morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /420 AM MST/...A trough diving through the Great
Basin today and into Colorado tonight will bring very windy and
dry conditions to the region. The entire CWA is covered with both
Red Flag Warnings and Wind Advisories. The windiest and driest
areas are likely to be just north of the Mogollon Rim.
Minor height falls and forcing along the trough axis may bring
some shallow, mid-level convection and VIRGA to the northern
Arizona border. We are not expecting measurable precipitation.
Winds drop off quickly tonight and higher elevations will likely
cool off quite a bit. Less wind and a bit warmer for Monday.
Tuesday features a nearly identical trough, compared to Sunday,
and we will likely need more wind and fire danger headlines.
A bit calmer and warmer for the rest of next week after Tuesday.
There is a possibility of another trough and increasing winds late
in the 7 day period.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package... Strong southwest winds will
be the biggest aviation concern today. Winds will continue to
strengthen, becoming 20-30 kts with gusts from 35-45 kts this
afternoon. A few stronger gusts near 50 kts possible downwind of
mountain features. There's potential for areas of blowing dust to
reduce visibility primarily north of a KGCN - KFLG - KSOW line.
Winds begin to decrease after 02Z Mon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Very dry and warm with strong, gusty southwest winds
Sunday. These critical fire weather conditions have led to a Red
Flag Warning across all of northern Arizona Sunday. Very dry
conditions continue Monday as southwest breezes weaken.
Tuesday through Thursday...Strong southwest winds again Tuesday with
critical fire weather conditions possible. Lighter northwest winds
forecast for Wednesday and Thursday along with dry conditions.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104>118-
137>140.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004>018-037>040.
&&
PUBLIC...ET/Peterson
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...JM
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Avalanche, Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County
- When
- May 1, 11:45 AM MST to 12:15 PM MST
- Where
- Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Mesonet
- Coordinates
- 35.620, -111.045 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The wind sensor along Interstate 40 at Two Guns reported high wind gusts between 1145 AM and 1215 PM. The peak wind gust was 60 MPH at 1153 AM.
High Wind, Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County
- When
- May 1, 1:00 PM MST to 2:00 PM MST
- Where
- Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County forecast zone
- Measured
- 53 kt (61 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
- Coordinates
- 35.396, -109.489 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The peak wind gust at Petrified Forest National Monument was 61 MPH at 143 PM.
Avalanche, Black Mesa Area
- When
- May 1, 1:00 PM MST to 1:20 PM MST
- Where
- Black Mesa Area forecast zone
- Reported by
- ASOS
- Coordinates
- 35.545, -110.527 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The Window Rock Airport reported a peak wind gust of 62 MPH at 109 PM MST.
High Wind, Western Mogollon Rim
- When
- May 1, 3:29 PM MST
- Where
- Western Mogollon Rim forecast zone
- Measured
- 53 kt (61 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- ASOS
- Coordinates
- 35.839, -111.770 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The peak wind gust at the Flagstaff Airport was 61 MPH at 329 PM MST.
- Avalanche
- A mass of snow sliding down a mountainside that caused a death, an injury or damage.
- High Wind
- Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Flood in North Dakota, May 1, 20222 deaths · $30,000 · 1 event
- Wildfire in New Mexico, May 1 to 13, 202210 injured · $11 million · 1 event
- Wildfire in New Mexico, May 1 to 31, 20223 injured · $100 million · 1 event
- Tornadoes and Flash Flood in Texas, May 1, 2022$911,000 · EF2 · 26 events
- Drought in South Dakota, May 1 to 31, 2022$34 million · 17 events
- Drought in Iowa, May 1 to 31, 2022$1.7 million · 4 events
- Flash Flood and Heavy Rain in Hawaii, May 1 to 2, 2022$1.2 million · 5 events
- Drought in Nebraska, May 1 to 31, 2022$392,000 · 2 events
- Damaging Winds in West Virginia, May 1, 2022$222,000 · 50 kt wind · 10 events
- Tornado and Hail in Texas, May 1 to 2, 2022$5,000 · EF0 · 55 events
- Drought in New Mexico, May 1 to 31, 202241 events
- Drought in California, May 1 to 31, 202240 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1018174, 1018186, 1018187, 1018188.