Tornado and Hail in Texas, May 1 to 2, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
220 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
...Severe weather expected today across most of the Panhandles...

* Synoptic Overview: Sharp dryline setup in eastern New Mexico and
  good moisture advection east of the dryline, as well as an
  approaching shortwave, will all support the environment for
  scattered supercells to form along eastern New Mexico and
  western Texas. These storms are expected to start off more
  discrete but then transition to be more linear later this
  evening.

* Mesoscale: Some elevated storms have already formed due to the
  mid level moisture transport, but CAPE values are pretty
  marginal, and so far the updrafts have struggled to sustain
  themselves in the higher sheared environment, but we'll monitor
  closely as the hours progress the atmosphere will become more
  unstable. Later this afternoon as we continue to heat up and as
  storms become more surfaced based, there will be ample CAPE
  available, possibly in excess of 2000 J/kg. Effective shear
  35-45kts and effective helicity values 200m 2/s2 will be
  supportive of supercells capable of strong rotating updrafts. A
  warm front is expected to retreat north later this evening, that
  will increase the moisture and lower the LCLs further. We are
  expected to have a drier boundary layer and very steep mid level
  lapse rates which would allow SB CAPE values along that frontal
  boundary to be near 3000 J/kg. A shortwave trough will move
  through this afternoon and evening in addition to right being
  under the influence of the right entrance region of the upper
  level jet will aid in large scale accent. Additionally, a strong
  low level jet will be in place later this evening. This along
  with the east to southeast surface flow will be supportive of a
  tornadic environment. But storms will need to stay discrete and
  if one manages to latch on to the frontal boundary then there's
  a decent chance for tornado development, and it may even be able
  to persist for some time. Given the environment, those
  supercells that form along the frontal boundary and can tap into
  more SB CAPE values, then the hail threat could even exceed 3"
  in diameter, in addition to the other hazards. On the other side
  of the coin, if the storms do congeal into more of a cluster
  environment earlier, then we'll need to pay close attention to
  possible QLCS spin ups, but the tornado threat from supercells
  at that point would be very limited as storms would be more
  liner in nature. As moisture advection enhances around the 5-9pm
  time frame across the Panhandles, PWAT values will be
  approaching 1.00" at Amarillo which is right along the
  climatological max for this time of year. So we can expect very
  heavy rain with these storms. The discrete storm motion looks to
  be around 20 to 30 mph out of the southeast, which should keep
  flooding issues localized to areas of poor drainage. Now later
  on as storms become more clustered, then possible training
  could occur that will increase the flooding threat further. This
  should be mainly focused in the south and southeast Panhandles.

* Threats: As noted in the Mesoscale discussion, very large hail
  in excess of 3" is possible. Strong damaging wind gusts up to 75
  mph will be possible. Tornadoes can't be ruled out and will be
  more favored in the southern Panhandles or along the warm front
  boundary with discrete supercells. Localized flooding or flash
  flooding, mainly in the southern or southeastern Panhandles,
  given the higher moisture content and better chances for
  multiple storms.

* Timing & Location: Elevated storms occurring in the western
  Panhandles over the next few hours, these storms are not
  expected to be severe, but may be strong. Scattered supercells
  expected to develop around 3 to 5 PM in the western Panhandles,
  and will track east northeast across the Panhandles. Storms will
  likely start to merge into a cluster across the central and
  eastern Panhandle in the 7 to 9 PM time frame, with storms
  exiting the eastern Panhandles in the midnight to 2 AM time
  frame. In general all areas have a decent chance to see a storms
  today.

* Summary: Severe storms will all hazards will be in play, the
  best chance for all hazards will be between 3 and 9 PM, with the
  highest tornado threat in the 5 to 9 PM time frame. The hail and
  tornado threat drop off quite a bit after 9 PM, and it will
  become mostly a wind threat from that point on. Very heavy rain
  can be expected and the further south and east, the higher the
  moisture content, so localized flooding, or flash flooding can't
  be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday Night...
An H5 low currently over portions of northern NV and SE OR will
trek east to southeast overnight bringing the base of an H5 trough
over the FA going into Monday afternoon. During the early morning
hours the dryline will mix east bringing in some drier air
temporarily for the afternoon. During the evening the H5 trough
will enable a cold front to surge south bringing dewpoints up
slightly behind the front going into Monday night. Overnight
Monday into Tuesday some areas in the northwest FA may be able to
drop down to freezing behind the front, aided by calm winds and
clear skies.

Tuesday, slight ridging will build in over the area with another
H5 low that will be positioned over ID into northern UT. This
will be the next system poised to possibly bring precipitation to
the area. Despite the ridge in place on Tuesday temperatures will
still only be in the 70s for a high. Overnight lows will be warmer
with breezy southerly winds going into Wed morning. Even the
northwest will stay well into the 40s for the overnight low.

While the next upper level system is to bring precipitation to
the area on Wed. It is starting to look like a leeside low will
develop over eastern NM and move east pushing the dryline into OK.
A weak cold front will swing south on the back side of this
surface low bringing some decent dewpoints into the Panhandles as
opposed to the really dry air on the dry side of the dryline.
There will still be some hope of showers and thunderstorms but
this setup will push the rich moist air into western and central
OK where severe storms will be more likely. With the front Wed
some cooler temperatures will be in place over night and into
Thursday. Thursday's afternoon highs are expected to be in the
upper 60s in the northern Panhandles while the southern TX
Panhandle sees mid 70s. Friday into next weekend is progged to be
well into the 90s once again as a much broader ridge builds in.

Hoffeditz

&&

Fire Weather...Mainly Monday..

Early Monday a dryline will quickly shove off to the east bringing
dry conditions to the southwestern to south-central TX Panhandle.
Breezy west winds up to 20 mph (20foot) with gust up to 30 to 35
mph. These winds will combine with RH values as low as 9 percent
to possibly create critical fire weather conditions across much of
the southern Texas Panhandle. There is a caveat, and that is how
much rain comes today to help with overall ERC values. Some
localized areas could get a soaking rain, helping to curb any
critical fire weather conditions. Each day there after there will
be a chance for elevated to critical fire weather conditions
mainly in the far western combined Panhandles. Again, all depends
on possible rainfall.

Hoffeditz

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the TAF period,
but there will likely be disruption to the terminals due to
thunderstorms in the 22-03z time period. Right now strong damaging
winds, large hail, heavy rain, and tornadoes will be possible with
these storms. Have noted about a 3 hour period of reasonable
confidence that storms will occur. That being said, we'll make
tweaks as needed and amend that TAFS to account for any changes in
the environment. After the storms pass by about 3z VFR conditions
should return with southeast winds around 15kts shifting more
westerly at the end of the TAF period. It's possible KGUY will
have some lingering morning low clouds that could support a few
MVFR/IFR hours. Confidence is not high enough at this time to not
anything other than a scattered low deck at KGUY.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                56  84  39  77  52 /  80   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  53  82  37  70  47 /  70  10   0   0  20
Boise City OK              51  75  32  74  46 /  40   0   0   0   5
Borger TX                  58  86  40  78  54 /  80   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              55  84  38  80  52 /  50   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  54  85  37  78  51 /  70   0   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               57  87  42  73  53 /  80  10   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 50  79  33  76  46 /  40   0   0   0   5
Guymon OK                  54  82  36  75  48 /  80   5   0   0  10
Hereford TX                54  85  37  80  52 /  50   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                55  86  38  72  49 /  70  10   0   0  20
Pampa TX                   56  85  38  74  51 /  80  10   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                56  89  41  74  52 /  70  20   0   0  20
Wellington TX              57  90  43  75  53 /  70  20   0   0  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

89/36

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
412 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-021100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
412 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight
for all of the combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Hazards
will include large hail up to two and half inches, damaging
winds, possible flooding and maybe a tornado or two. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 11 PM CDT this evening for
all of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible for
portions of the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Monday
afternoon.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into evening.
Widespread severe storms are not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and
evening.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon.