Arizona, 2022High Wind in Arizona, February 21, 2022
February 21, 2022 · NWS FGZ · 2 events in 2 counties and zones
A longwave trough developed over the Pacific Northwest and dug southward into |the Great Basin on 21 February. As an initial shortwave moved into Arizona, the pressure gradient increased resulting in a strong upper-level jet developing.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 2
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A longwave trough developed over the Pacific Northwest and dug southward into |the Great Basin on 21 February. As an initial shortwave moved into Arizona, the pressure gradient increased resulting in a strong upper-level jet developing. Consequently, winds increased over much of northern Arizona during the late morning and into the night. Vertical mixing through around 700-650 mb where the winds initially in the 30-40 kt range. However, as the trough axis draws approached, the low-level winds at the top of the boundary layer increase to around 50-60 kts.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 9:57 AM MST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 21, 9:57 AM MST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ...COR
for AVN and FWX 957 AM MST Mon Feb 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Windy and colder weather arrives today, with a few
rain and snow showers over higher terrain by this evening. Windy and
cold weather continues into Tuesday, with more frequent rain and
snow showers. A significant snowstorm will spread from west to east
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the potential for accumulating
snow down to 4000 feet, along with widespread and hazardous travel
conditions. Drier weather arrives for Thursday, with a warming trend
heading into next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...A long wave trough is pushing southward across the
Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and into the Great Basin today.
A shortwave trough is moving across Arizona with increasing clouds,
southwest winds, and a few light showers over far northern Arizona
this morning. The main trough is set to move across Arizona Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Current forecast is on track with this
strong winter storm system.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /405 AM MST/...A long wave trough settling into
the northern Great Basin today will steadily push south through
Wednesday, before ejecting eastward on Thursday.
A series of sw/vs will move through the trough position today and
Tuesday, before the trough consolidates and ejects through Arizona
late Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Initially, lowering pressure to our north and increased wind speeds
aloft will result in wind, and a fair amounts of it. Wind Advisory
products have been issued starting later this morning, continuing
through Tuesday.
As hghts fall, the s/wvs will have increasingly favorable moisture
profiles to work with, along with strong upslope flow and a cooling
boundary layer. This will result in upslope showers developing late
today over the Kaibab Plateau, moving south toward Flagstaff in the
evening. The saturation profiles with this first round of showers is
shallow and significant accumulations are not expected.
By Tuesday, the main trough position starts to tap into eastern
Pacific marine layer moisture, with a fetch of moisture training
into central Arizona by Tuesday afternoon. This will result in more
extensive upslope shower coverage, especially along the Mogollon Rim.
By Tuesday night and Wednesday, the main trough moves through.
This will be a very cold trough passage, moisture will be in place
and vertical profiles will saturate to at least 500 mb.
This will make for a very efficient snow process, we expect
significant, widespread accumulations as a result. In fact, by
Wednesday afternoon, snow levels may be as low as the Verde Valley.
Due to the widespread impacts on Wednesday, a Winter Storm Watch has
been issued for the Mogollon Rim above 5000 feet. More zones may be
needed as we draw closer to the event, but confidence is highest
right now for the high country.
By Thursday, we will dry out as the trough moves east, setting up
subsidence and rising hghts toward the end of the week. Although
wind and snow impacts will have ended, expect very cold overnight
temperatures for several days following the snowfall, with daytime
highs slowly warming into the coming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Increasing southwesterly winds by
19z with strong gusty conditions peaking near 45 kts and remaining
throughout the TAF period. Mainly VFR conditions early on with
increasing cloud cover from north to south throughout the day.
Localized MVFR/IFR developing Monday evening, continuing overnight
near KGCN-KFLG-KRQE line and northeastward. Reduced visibility
expected primarily over higher elevations where there is snowfall.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds and cooler temperatures today
and Tuesday. Rain and snow showers by late Monday afternoon becoming
more widespread by Tuesday afternoon, especially over higher terrain
and along the Mogollon Rim.
Wednesday through Friday...Areas of rain and snow, cold temperatures
and continued gusty winds for Wednesday. Cold, but dry and less wind
for Thursday. Warmer and dry for Friday, with light winds.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST
Tuesday FOR AZZ012>017.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004>011-039-040.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon FOR AZZ015-016.
&&
PUBLIC...MAS/Peterson
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JM
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
High Wind, Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County
- When
- February 21, 12:15 PM MST to 4:55 PM MST
- Where
- Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County forecast zone
- Measured
- 62 kt (71 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- ASOS
- Coordinates
- 35.620, -111.045 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The ADOT wind sensor at Two Guns measured a peak wind gust of 62 MPH at 113 PM. Wind gusts exceeded 58 MPH between 1230 PM and 230 PM. The sustained wind was 40 MPH and higher between 1215 PM and 230 PM. The Winslow ASOS (less than 5 miles into the next zone) measured a peak wind gust of 61 MPH at 215 PM. Peak wind gusts were 58 MPH and higher between 150 PM and 300 PM. The sustained winds were 40 MPH and higher between 1250 PM and 455 PM.
High Wind, Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County
- When
- February 21, 12:50 PM MST to 4:55 PM MST
- Where
- Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County forecast zone
- Measured
- 53 kt (61 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- ASOS
- Coordinates
- 35.400, -110.321 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The Winslow ASOS (less than 5 miles into the next zone) measured a peak wind gust of 61 MPH at 215 PM. Peak wind gusts were 58 MPH and higher between 150 PM and 300 PM. The sustained winds were 40 MPH and higher between 1250 PM and 455 PM. The wind sensor on State Route 77 (14 Mile Hill) met high wind criteria from 400 to 500 PM MST. The ADOT wind sensor on I-40 at Jackrabbit had a peak wind gust of 59 MPH at 0403 PM MST.
- High Wind
- Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Dust Storm and High Wind in Nevada, February 21 to 24, 20221 death · 9 injured · 65 kt wind · 3 events
- Winter Weather in South Dakota, February 21 to 22, 20221 death · 24 events
- Winter Weather in Minnesota, February 21 to 22, 20221 death · $10,000 · 1 event
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, February 21 to 22, 2022$784,000 · 2 in hail · 36 events
- Winter Weather in Washington, February 21, 2022$200,000 · 1 event
- Dust Storm and High Wind in Arizona, February 21 to 23, 2022$100,000 · 57 kt wind · 4 events
- Ice Storm in Michigan, February 21 to 22, 2022$35,000 · 6 events
- Extreme Cold and Heavy Snow in Wyoming, February 21 to 23, 202229 events
- Winter Storm and Heavy Snow in Nevada, February 21 to 22, 20223 injured · 2 events
- Extreme Cold and Heavy Snow in California, February 21 to 25, 202262 kt wind · 20 events
- Winter Weather in Wisconsin, February 21 to 22, 202220 events
- Extreme Cold in Nebraska, February 21 to 22, 202217 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1010272, 1010273.