High Wind in Alaska, March 29 to 30, 2022

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
629 AM AKDT Tue Mar 29 2022

.SHORT TERM...A front over the central panhandle is causing steady
rain this morning. Most locations stayed warm enough for all rain
overnight, with exception of out the Haines Highway where
temperatures have dipped to 33F and some snow is mixed in as of
5am. A developing low along the front can be seen on satellite
imagery and will track northward into the SE gulf through late
afternoon and evening. This will cause SE surface winds to back
through the day, becoming NELY for many of the northern/central
inside waters. Timing of when the wind fully turns out of the
north will vary with some of the inner channels having SE winds at
one end and NE at the other for parts of the day.

The approaching low will cause the swath of rain over the region
to waver and be pulled away in the late afternoon with a lull in
precip rates. Showers then move back in with the low.

The south will start feeling the affects of the approaching low as
winds increase through the late afternoon. Peak winds for Prince
of Wales and the Ketchikan area look to have SE gusts of around
45mph after 10pm then shifting SW as the low passes by 4am.
Clarence Strait winds have been increased to gale 35kt for
tonight. As the low tracks northward along the outer coast, winds
through other inside waters will shift S-SW 20-30kt (30-40kt
outside waters). The Sitka area will see the wind shift Wednesday
morning, but not expecting gusts to be quite as strong since the
low will be starting to fill by that point, however showers will
be moderate to heavy.

Showers will continue to shift northward as low weakens to a
trough and moves inland near Cross Sound through Wednesday. CAA
behind the low will keep showers and some gusty winds going, but
expect a diminishing trend across the south.

Models came into better agreement on the track of the deepening
low, allowing for more confidence in nudging wind speeds up.
The GFS was the strongest with winds nearing the high wind
category as it moves by Dixon Entrance. Other models were lower,
but will need to monitor the low closely as it moves into a region
with more available observations.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday Into The Weekend/...The mid to long range
forecast begins with an exiting trough, then building ridge of
high pressure at the 500mb level. This ridge will move in
Wednesday afternoon but quickly exit the panhandle Thursday night
as the next trough tracks closer to the area. This forecast
pattern is backed by the ensembles means and the deterministic
model outputs.

At the surface, an area of low pressure will already be tracking
along the coast, moving northward. As the low moves north, surface
pressure begins to build Wednesday evening and higher pressure
will last well into Thursday. Then a front is expected to move
across the panhandle from south to north Thursday night through
Friday. All that being said, it looks like the active, on/off
weather pattern will continue the second half of the week.

Wednesday looks to be rainy and showery due to that first low
finishing its track northward. Then as the ridge of high pressure
builds, that should limit rain potential and decrease PoPS
Wednesday night into Thursday. Forecaster was aggressive with the
decreasing clouds on Thursday due to evidence in the ensemble
probability maps for sky cover showing low probability for
greater-than mostly cloudy conditions and the NAM indicating
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

The quiet weather will be short-lived as the next front moves
into the panhandle Thursday night. This front is expected to move
south to north through Friday, bringing more moisture to the area.
But because of the quick movement of the front, 24 hour rain
amounts are expected to be less than a half inch for most
populated areas.

Then comes the weekend weather. Weather computer models have a
wide spread on location, intensity, and track of the lows and
fronts that will pass through the gulf. So to simplify the message
for the weekend forecast – high chances for rain continue
through the weekend.

Temperatures in the mid to long range look to remain generally
steady with highs in the 40s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Some isolated areas may dip into the low 30s, so at least a
mention of a rain/snow mix was left in the forecast.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-033>035-043-051>053.

&&

Ferrin/GJS

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