Wildfire and High Wind in Kansas, March 29 to 30, 2022

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
106 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...AVIATION AND SHORT TERM UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Have been making some tweaks to the grids throughout the morning,
but the general theme of the forecast remains the same with fire
weather being the utmost concern this afternoon-evening.

Temps, wind, and RH...clearing has been quite aggressive thus far
which is only making it more and more probable that at least the
S/SE third (or so) of the CWA will see extreme fire conditions
this aftn. Both temps and dew points are running a bit ahead of
schedule...with both of these trends most closely resembled by
HRRR and RAP runs. In fact, yesterday's NAM/NAMnest solutions (and
to some extent GFS) have been a horrible bust! As such, have
trended the first ~6hrs towards time-lagged HRRR/RAP runs, which
results in warmer temps, lower RH, and stronger wind gusts -
particularly from Osborne to Hebron. This essentially
confirms/incr confidence in extreme fire weather this aftn-early
eve. In fact, latest GFDI numbers now fall squarely within the
"catastrophic" category (80+) in that corridor from Osborne to
Hebron where gusts near 45 MPH, temps in mid 80s, and RHs in the
teens are most likely to be co-located. Fire prevention is of the
utmost importance today! At least these areas have seen at least
SOME moisture in the past few weeks, but majority of fine fuels
are still dormant, so fast/extreme fire spread is still a concern.
As mentioned in previous products...a strong cold front will bring
major wind shift this eve. Winds will veer to SW then W by early
eve, then NW around 02Z to 06Z (from WNW to ESE). Sustained winds
20-25 MPH and gusts 40-45 MPH (perhaps higher in known windy
locations) are likely behind the front - essentially negating to
some degree the RH recovery.

Severe t-storm concerns...latest SPC Day 1 outlook just barely
grazes the far E/NE CWA and agree with trends of both this morning
and yesterday that the primary concern will likely be E of Hwy 81.
Will probably pull the mention of severe from HWOGID with aftn
forecast package, assuming no major changes/development. Can't
rule out some mainly elevate convection near and behind the sfc
low/cold front...but already low CAPE will only decr with time
this eve.

Dust...while not formally in zones or HWO...will have to keep an
eye on potential for blowing dust. Already seeing some areas
develop on satellite/sfc Obs in SW KS, so wouldn't be surprised if
some of this is pulled NEward. Exact impacts like visibility
restrictions are always tough to pin down as they're usually
highly sensitive to local conditions, but it'll be something to
monitor/nowcast. Have noticed some early spring field work last
few days, so that could be influencing factor, as well.

Will look into Wed-Wed night pcpn chcs more with the aftn package.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Today through Wednesday:

Overview:
A strong upper disturbance will move into and across the Central
Plains this afternoon and evening. Ahead of this disturbance a
deepening surface low will quickly move from western colorado
across the heart of the forecast area into eastern Nebraska by
this evening. This disturbance will bring the combination of
precipitation (possible convection and snow), Strong winds and
significant Fire Weather concerns. Each will be detailed below.

*Fire weather:
Fire weather is the primary concern today as the combination of
very strong winds and dry air converge across south and eastern
sections of the forecast area. A dryline will move eastward with
the surface low. Behind the dryline mixing will deepen and very
dry air and strong winds will combine to cause Critical Fire
Danger. The area of greatest confidence is over far southeastern
sections of the forecast area which includes Smith, Jewell, Rooks,
Osborne, and Mitchell counties in Kansas and Webster through
Thayer counties along the NE/KS border. There is some uncertainty
in how far north the surge of dry air (RH values of 20-25% or
lower) and strongest winds will get, but feel the high-resolution
guidance generally handles these situations better and thus
weighted the forecast towards those solutions. This brings the
drier air a bit further west and north than the previous forecast
had. With this and the dry fuels that are in place, decided to
expand the Red Flag Warning for not only the inherited Fire
Weather Watch areas, but expanded north a row of counties. The
greatest uncertainty in reaching the RFW criteria is in that row
of counties, but decided to expand based on the concern for the
dry air to surge further northward. The placement of the surface
low late this afternoon will be key to answering some of these
questions, but felt it was important to get the message out for
the potential, as if it gets warm and dry, the strong wind will
will cause any fire that develops to potentially get out of
control quickly. Winds could even be stronger than what is in the
forecast.

As was added last night, the cold front will move through the area
in the evening to late evening hours and this will cause a wind
shift to the north to northwest that could impact any ongoing
fires.

*Thunderstorms and Precipitation:
While we are still in a SPC Marginal Risk, feel the best chance
for convection and especially any severe convection will remain to
the east of the forecast area. The HREF ensemble and the latest
high-res guidance continue to indicate that the bulk of the
instability will remain off to the east across eastern Nebraska
and eastern Kansas. There could be some elevated instability as
the upper disturbance moves across the area on the order of a few
hundred J/kg CAPE, but this activity is not expected to become
severe. Ultimately we could see a few storms develop along the Hwy
81 corridor and possible back into Mitchell and Jewell counties,
but confidence is not high on that at this time.

Really cut back pops this afternoon after watching the HREF and
more recent high-res solutions keep the majority of any convection
off to our east. Pops increase across the whole area after 00z
tonight. Some precip could transition from rain to snow late
tonight, but any snow would likely only accumulate a dusting on
grassy or elevated surfaces.

Tomorrow, there will be a chance for continued showers or snow
showers in the morning before waning and another disturbance dives
southeast into the Wednesday evening hours bringing light snow
chances.  Little to no accumulation is expected.

*Wind:
Strong south to southwesterly wind will develop late this
afternoon as the dryline moves eastward with the surface low. For
a period of time this afternoon into the evening winds could be
very strong...with some guidance indicating the potential for
brief High Wind Warning Criteria (Gusts over 58 mph). Bufkit
soundings show mixing to near 650 mb with extremely strong south
to southwesterly winds with sustained speeds exceeding 45 mph and
gusts reaching 55 mph or higher. This is currently higher than the
forecast and we do not have a High Wind Warning or Watch out, but
it is something to watch. The better chances for these stronger
winds will be further to the south, and some areas of central and
southern Kansas have issued High Wind Warnings. As for the
official forecast have used the NBM 4.1 blended with some high-
res guidance to increase the wind potential with 20-30 mph
sustained speeds with gusts to 45 mph in the forecast.

Then tonight as the surface low moves into eastern Nebraska, the
gradient on the back side of the low is stout and will cause very
strong north to northwesterly winds. These winds will increase
overnight and persist through Wednesday. The strongest winds
during this period looks to be across western Nebraska, but
sustained speeds of 25-35 mph and gusts of 50 to 55 are possible.

*Temps:
As with the rest of these elements above, the temperature forecast
is challenging. Currently have a wide, 20 degree range from north
to south across the forecast area for high temps. But some
guidance/ensembles indicate that the warmest temperatures may
extend further north and west than currently forecast. For example
the NBM 4.0 and 4.1 both have much of the forecast near or below
the 25 percentile for max temperatures - indicating that there is
a decent range in the guidance for today's temperatures and many
of them have values higher than our forecast. Thus, did increase
temps a bit for areas along and east of the Tri- cities, but this
may still not be warm enough. There is some large bust potential
with some models showing 80 degree temps as far west as Kearney.

Tomorrow, temps will be quite a bit cooler, with temps generally
in the 40s, but some areas in central Nebraska could struggle to
see temps get out of the upper 30s.

Thursday - Monday:
The majority of the time on the forecast was spent on Today into
Wednesday, so just a brief overview of the remainder of the 7
days. Temperatures will moderate closer to the mid-upper 50s to
low 60s normals for late March/early April. But the pattern
remains active with a number of disturbances moving across the
area through next Monday. There is a small chance for
precipitation Friday night into Saturday and what looks to be a
better chance next Monday. Stay tuned as those periods near for
more details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Significant weather: Strong winds and MVFR CIGs

First 6 hours: VFR. Main concern will be strong winds that
gradually veer from SE to SW by late aftn, then W early this eve.
Gusts 30-35kt are expected. Confidence: High.

Rest of the period: VFR to MVFR. A strong cold front will bring
strong NW winds and MVFR CIGs to both terminals later this eve,
generally around 03Z-04Z. Sustained winds near 20kt and gusts
near 40kt are likely. Have maintained some VCTS (mainly 02Z-05Z)
and some VCSH, but confidence in measurable pcpn is low.
Confidence: wind/flight cat - high, VCTS - low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Extreme Fire Danger is expected today, especially for eastern and
southern portions of the forecast area. A dryline will move into
the region this afternoon with deep mixing behind it causing very
dry and windy conditions. Wind gusts of up to 45-50 mph are
expected with gusts exceeding 50 mph possible. Relative humidities
in the dry air will drop to as low as 15 percent across north
central Kansas and reaching into areas east of the Tri-cities in
Nebraska. Did expand the Red Flag Warning for the concern for the
strong winds and dry air to be a bit further north and west, but
confidence remains the lowest for the northern most tier of
counties in the RFW (Hall, Hamilton and York). Any fire that
develops could become dangerous quickly with the strong winds, dry
fuels and dry air. Even RH values over 20 percent, with these
strong winds could still have dangerous fire behavior.

This evening a cold front will move in causing the south to
southwesterly winds to become north to northwesterly and strong on
the backside of the surface low. Any ongoing fires will be
susceptible to this wind shift.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ062>064-
     075>077-084>087.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Thies
FIRE WEATHER...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1046 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
301100-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1046 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...CORRECTED LOCATION WORDING IN FIRST SENTENCE...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas along and south of I-80
and east of line from Grand Island, NE to Phillipsburg, KS.
Relative Humidity values of 15 to 20 percent are expected for most
of the counties in the Red Flag Warning which will be combined
with dry fuels and strong south to southwesterly winds with gusts
up to 45 mph. The combination of these conditions will cause cause
dangerous fire behavior. Tonight, the strong winds will switch
from the southwest to the northwest and remain strong which could
impact fire behavior for any ongoing fires.

There is a small chance for strong to severe thunderstorms for
areas generally along and east of the Highway 81 corridor. The
best chance for strong to severe storms will exist further over
eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas, but we cannot rule out a few
storms developing along the Highway 81 corridor and moving east.
The primary concerns are hail to the size of quarters and wind
gusts to 60 mph. Severe thunderstorm potential should end by
midnight or before.

Strong winds will be present across eastern portions of the
forecast area today, with the strongest winds expected east of the
Highway 281 corridor. South to southwesterly winds sustained at
20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are possible. Then this evening
into the overnight hours, a cold front will move across the area,
changing the strong winds to the north to northwest with
sustained speeds of 30-35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The strong north to northwest winds will persist Wednesday across
the area with the strongest gusts up to 50 mph expected. The
potential for a few brief periods of snow with these strong winds
could cause visibility to be reduced at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening after 6 pm along and
east of Highway 81. However, any reports of possible wildfires,
today would be appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Thies