A far reaching winter storm set up a tight pressure gradient on its western side resulting in high winds for the Eastern Aleutians. On the north side of the storm, precipitation overran Arctic air already in place across the North Pacific resulting in heavy snowfall.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A far reaching winter storm set up a tight pressure gradient on its western side resulting in high winds for the Eastern Aleutians. On the north side of the storm, precipitation overran Arctic air already in place across the North Pacific resulting in heavy snowfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 19, 5:52 AM AKST, 9 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 552 AM AKST Sat Feb 19 2022 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... A large low pressure system near 47N 168E is moving northeastward. A weak trough of low pressure currently extends across the Gulf of Alaska. An upper level low currently over eastern Siberia and the Bering Strait is slowly drifting westward. The jetstream currently extends northeastward from the subtropical west Pacific to the eastern Aleutian Islands and then extends eastward across the southern Gulf of Alaska into Southeast Alaska and British Columbia. Closer to the surface, radar shows isolated showers moving eastward across the northern Gulf . && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are generally in good agreement with respect to the placement and intensity of synoptic scale features. The biggest area of uncertainty continues to be precipitation type as subtle differences in forecast 850 mb temperatures are observed. Subtle differences in smaller scale phenomena are also apparent and this can affect the temperature forecast and thus affect the precipitation-type forecast. && .AVIATION... PANC...Conditions will mainly be VFR for this TAF period. IFR conditions are likely between 20/07z and 20/10z as ceilings will fall to near 700ft. Light winds will persist througout the period. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Today through Monday Night)... A quiet start to the forecast period will become more active Monday morning and beyond as the next North Pacific storm moves into Southcentral. Southcentral is finally starting to see a break in the parade of storms this weekend as upper level ridging builds into the region. The skies have done a remarkable job at clearing, with much of Anchorage, the Kenai, and Kodiak seeing more stars than clouds this morning. Meanwhile lower cloud cover remains in place for much of the rest of the area. It remains to be seen how well the sun can work at the low stratus up in the Valley, but there is at least some chance that the skies can clear up that way as well. Any leftover precipitation over the Copper Basin will quickly end this morning, leaving the entire area dry for much of the day. Temperatures have been falling below freezing, so slick conditions are likely this morning. Tonight a weakening front will move over Kodiak Island during the evening. Temperatures should be warm enough for mostly rain, but a mix with snow can't be ruled out. Regardless, no accumulations are expected. The front will continue shearing apart as it pushes into the southern Kenai Peninsula late tonight, but any shower activity will be very light and short-lived around Homer. There is high confidence no measurable precipitation will encroach much further north Sunday morning. Unfortunately, despite the lack of precipitation, cloud cover will more successfully encroach on the area, resulting in an overcast, but dry day for most of Southcentral on Sunday. On Sunday night, a second front will move into Kodiak. Unlike the first front, this will be the start of a prolonged period of occasionally heavy precipitation for not just Kodiak, but for all of Southcentral. Unfortunately, there remains considerable uncertainty as to the track of the storm and the wind pattern around the stalled front, which looks to set up along Cook Inlet. It's looking increasingly likely that there will be a Turnagain Arm wind for much of the day on Monday, but it's not as clear as to whether or not that wind will bend into Anchorage. Temperatures will once again be right on the borderline with this event, as a considerable amount of warm air is funneled north along the front above the surface. As of now generally we are looking at the 31 to 36 degree range for much of Southcentral, which if we are at the higher end, will be a mostly rain event, whereas temperatures closer to freezing could result in either a cold rain or a wet, heavy-consistency snow that mostly melts on contact with road surfaces, especially Monday afternoon. As usual, the further south you go the warmer you get. Since a very general consensus of the guidance has the front aligned north-south along Cook Inlet into the Susitna Valley, lots of warm air being funneled north along the front most likely will result in mostly rain from Anchorage south, while heavy wet snow is likely in the Susitna Valley where cold air is notoriously difficult to displace. On Monday night into early Tuesday morning, a strong low supported by a strong upper level shortwave will track into Southcentral along the front. As the low approaches and moves through, it will enhance the precipitation rates area-wide, but the track remains highly uncertain. The closer to the coast the low tracks, the more likely there will be widespread snow, and vice versa. A small change in track makes a large difference for communities along it, so once again it can't be said with any certainty how precipitation type will work out. The low tracking through during the overnight should help support a snowier solution, but track is far more important. Precipitation will quickly end from west to east Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 - Today through Tuesday)... An active pattern continues for Southwest through Tuesday. A series of fronts will move through the region this weekend, with the first front set to track across later today. Precipitation will begin as snow across northern and interior Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon. There will be a quick transition to rain, with a possible brief period of freezing rain, as the front passes over these areas this evening. Another much warmer front is expected to move into the region during the day on Sunday, bringing widespread rain with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Freezing rain potential with this feature will move into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, namely for the villages from Aniak east. Please see the current Special Weather Statement for more details. By Sunday night, another frontal system aims for the northwestern part of the Kuskokwim Delta and will prolong precipitation in this area. Conditions finally look to clear up from south-north across the region as the front pushes northward. Another system will track northward across Southwest from the western Gulf/north Pacific Monday morning into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3 - Today through Tuesday)... An active pattern persists for the Bering Sea and Aleutians through Tuesday. First, a surface low remains nearly stationary over the western Aleutians while its front spreads west-east across the Bering as it pushes northward. A quick transition from snow to rain is expected as the front passes through, Precipitation will remain as snow for the northern Bering. Next, a strong low pressure system moves from the north Pacific into the central Bering. A front first crosses over the Aleutians early Sunday, and then the associated storm force low tracks over the central Aleutians shortly after. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact track of this storm. Although the strongest winds are still expected to occur between Adak and Unalaska, current model solutions have the winds peaking later Sunday morning and diminishing into late Sunday night. The low strength is also depicted to be a bit weaker, so winds look like they will only peak at storm force. The low center has shifted more to the east, and this now puts Nikolski and Unalaska at the greatest risk for seeing some of the strongest winds from this storm. As such, a High Wind Watch will take effect late tonight and last through Sunday afternoon for the eastern Aleutians. Sunday afternoon into Monday, the storm force low and the aforementioned stationary low join together to form one big low pressure system over the central Bering. This new system elongates and moves into the northern Bering by Tuesday morning. At the same time, another front from the north Pacific moves across the western and central Aleutians. The front pushes northeastward across the Bering through Tuesday as the associated surface low approaches the western Aleutians. && .Marine (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)... Gulf of Alaska: High pressure moves into the Eastern Gulf for Tuesday. A front enters the Western Gulf and extends across the Northern Gulf through Wednesday. Forecast guidance is good. Light winds yield to gusty Southerly winds less than gale force moves across the Gulf through Wednesday. An area of high end Easterly gales extends over the Barren Islands and Kamishak Bay late Monday through Wednesday. Seas to 12 feet with the front through Wednesday. Bering Sea/Aleutians: The weather pattern continues busy through Wednesday. A well developed Central Bering low moves through The Bering Strait for Tuesday. A strong front moves across the Aleutians and Bering through Wednesday. Forecast confidence is good. The Central Bering wind wrapped low has high end Southerly gales with areas of storm force winds on its Eastern flank, diminishing Tuesday. Western flank has Northerly gales, diminishing late Monday. Seas to 24 feet over the Central Bering, and to 20 feet on the Pacific side of the Aleutians, subsiding late Monday. Widespread Southerly gales with the front move into the Central Aleutians and Bering by Wednesday. Seas building to 20 feet for Wednesday. && .Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... Upper level trough/ridge pattern continues through the long term. Ridging over the State on Tuesday moves eastward through the late week, meanwhile, longwave troughing extends over the Bering sea. Solutions are hinting at the development of a surface low at the base of the trough south of Kodiak Island/Southern AKPen. This would bring active weather to Kodiak Island initially, and to the North Gulf Coast later as the front moves northwards. Periods of warmer air ahead of front may keep temperatures freezing in some places, and precipitation type will continue to vary. There is fair model agreement for the progression of the upper level waves moving across the State through mid-week. Model spread begins to grow beyond Wednesday with the approach of a North Pacific low. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 187. High Wind Watch 185. MARINE...Storm Warning 170 173 174 175 412 413 414. Gale Warning 155 165 171 172 176 177 178 179 181 185 411. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185 411 412. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/KM
2 winter weather, 2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Amber Lake reported 12 inches in 12 hrs. Alaska 511 reported up to 24 inches from Mile Post 115-163. Alaska 511 reported 10 to 14 inches of snow from mile post 163-210.
Dutch Harbor APL SSE reported a wind gusts to 79.6 knots on 2/20 at 11:50am.|Dutch Harbor ASOS (PADU) observations reported in the remarks section southeast wind with a peak wind gust of 72 knots at 11:46 am. NKLA2 AWOS also reported southeast winds sustained of 52 knots with a gust to 68 knots.
Potter Marsh on the Anchorage Hillside reported a wind gusts to 65 knots. One of the stations on top of Flattop Mountain reported a wind speed of 48 knots with a gusts to 71 knots.
Kenai Tower reported 4 inches. Kenai reported short periods of rain with mostly snow; Soldotna reported several reports of unknown precipitation as well.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1019141, 1019140, 1019142, 1019143.