A low pressure system spinning in the Gulf of Alaska sent precipitation over the Kenai Mountains and into the Western Kenai Peninsula resulting in snow and blowing snow as it met up with the Arctic air in place.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A low pressure system spinning in the Gulf of Alaska sent precipitation over the Kenai Mountains and into the Western Kenai Peninsula resulting in snow and blowing snow as it met up with the Arctic air in place.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 5:00 PM AKST, 11 hours 54 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Northwesterly flow aloft continues across much of Southcentral
this morning out ahead of a building weak upper level ridge off to
the southwest. Some residual moisture is present in the lowest
levels of the atmosphere underneath an inversion. This has been
resulting in areas of dense fog around Anchorage and the northern
Kenai Peninsula. The fog did make it into Kenai for a time earlier
this morning. Low level stratus was the main issue near Palmer and
Birchwood where mostly a low level stratus deck was observed.
Elsewhere, Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin were just clear
and very cold. Gulkana dropped to -33 degrees this morning with
negative teens and 20s below zero around Talkeetna and Skwentna.
Some high level clouds can be seen streaming in from the south
across the southern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island as the next
frontal system continues moving northward.
Across Southwest, a transient weak upper level ridge continues to
move through the area. This is resulting in mostly quiet and dry
conditions, though, mid to high level clouds can be seen on
visible satellite imagery moving into the area as the next frontal
system approaches. Temperatures across Southwest are very cold
this morning especially across the Kuskokwim Valley with
where it dropped to -27 degrees in Sleetmute this morning.
Elsewhere was mostly single numbers and teens for the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay.
Lastly, one low pressure system continues moving rapidly
northwestward across the western Bering towards Russia with high
end gale force winds across the western Bering. Another low
pressure system can be seen on satellite imagery moving northward
towards the Eastern Aleutians.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement on the synoptic
scale features out through Day 3. However, of course, some
difference do arise in terms of placement, track, and timing of
individual features. First for Southcentral, model guidance is
showing a triple point low developing to the east of Kodiak Island
Tuesday afternoon. It then tracks this low (~1000 mb) across the
northern Gulf towards Southeast Alaska through Wednesday morning
while weakening. Therefore, the challenge remained today exactly
how much snow will fall across Southcentral as well as how far
inland the moisture will get. Across Southwest and the Bering,
there is decent model agreement on the various lows that are
expected to traverse the area over the next couple days. However,
differences do emerge on the low that will be moving northward
towards Adak Tuesday evening into Wednesday especially in regards
to placement of this low as it moves into the Bering Sea. Active
weather is expected to continue across the Bering Sea/Aleutian
Chain from Wednesday afternoon into Day 3 (Thursday). While the
general theme is overall in good agreement, exact placement of
features, as well as timing remain uncertain and will continue to
be fine tuned as confidence increases.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected through around
01/03z-04z this evening. Current thinking is that the fog that was
over the terminal this morning will move back over the terminal
this evening and overnight, especially since it is still present
on visible imagery through this afternoon. Therefore, brought the
terminal back down to MVFR conditions and then LIFR conditions
around midnight, though, there is the chance the terminal comes
down to LIFR conditions earlier like yesterday evening. Think a
similar thing may happen tomorrow morning with any fog lifting
during the mid to late morning before some light snow moves over
the terminal around noontime.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3: Tonight
through Thursday)...
High pressure ridging remains in place across most of
Southcentral, except across Kodiak, where the outer reaches of
an approaching frontal system are just beginning to arrive with
wet snow that will soon change to rain with warming southeast
winds. Dense fog that earlier impacted much of the MatSu Valleys
has cleared out for the most part, but will have a chance to re-
develop in similar areas this evening as the sun sets and surface
temperatures drop back closer to dew points. Any fog that
develops is not likely to persist long into tomorrow morning as
east to northeast winds increase ahead of the approaching frontal
system moving into the Gulf as low level moisture becomes mixed
out.
On Tuesday, synoptic lift ahead of the front slowly stalling in
the Gulf and an associated upper level trough will spread north,
sending a round of snow across Southcentral beginning from south
to north. Southeasterly flow coupled with high pressure remaining
over the Copper River Basin will help drive up gap winds during
the day on Tuesday, including through the Matanuska Valley and
Turnagain Arm. This southeast flow will likely be strong enough to
reduce snowfall totals near Anchorage and Palmer due to downslope
drying, but not enough to prevent reaching totals ranging from a
half-inch to 2 inches across the Matanuska Valley and greater
Anchorage area. Expect snowfall totals generally ranging from 2
to 6 inches for lower elevations for elsewhere, except near
Portage Valley, Whittier and over the Homer Bluffs, where around 6
to 8 inches and locally higher amounts are possible through
Tuesday night. The gap winds through the Matanuska Valley,
Turnagain Arm, and also Thompson Pass could cause periods of
blowing snow after falling snow begins until winds begin to
subside overnight Tuesday.
On Wednesday, support will quickly fall apart for snow from west
to east as the upper level trough shifts towards the AK Panhandle
and as transient ridging moves back overhead. However, the break
will be short lived, with another system shifting north into
Kodiak Island and sending another round of snow, possibly mixing
with rain near the coast, across much of the area on Thursday.
Once again, strong southeast flow will develop across the Kenai
Peninsula, limiting potential for snow across most of the
Matanuska Valley through at least Thursday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An active weather pattern is in store for Southwest Alaska for
the next couple days. A North Pacific low is tracking towards the
southern Bering tonight with its front reaching the Bristol Bay
coast by this evening. As this low progresses north, it is
bringing a swath of warmer air with it. As warm air advects over
the coast, areas of rain, freezing rain, and even sleet are
possible across Southwest Alaska. The most affected areas will
likely be the Kuskokwim Delta, from Bethel west, and Dillingham
and areas north and west. Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued for these areas as a result. Iliamna to Port Heiden, including
King Salmon, will likely see very little in the way of snow or
freezing rain as warmer air is expected to produce all rain for
these areas. However, uncertainty still remains due to the warm
air mass that will be accompanying the low. With a deeper warm
layer moving in and colder temperatures currently over the
Southwest coast, this scenario could promote more freezing rain.
However, if the warm air mass is shallower, than the resultant
precipitation type will be more along the lines of sleet/rain and
a rain/snow mix. Trying to pinpoint how deep this warm layer will
be and how it will react with the cold air in place, makes this
forecast challenging. Additionally, the more warm air that is
mixed in, will result in less snowfall/snow accumulations.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A series of low pressures will move across the Bering in the
coming days. Two North Pacific lows will push north towards the
Bering tonight with both tracking at opposite ends of the
Aleutian Chain. The low near Shemya will bring gale force winds
and light rain/snow showers to the Western Aleutians tonight
before it exits off to the north tomorrow morning. The second low
is currently tracking towards the Alaska Peninsula and ill bring
a swath of warmer air along its front. Rain is forecasted to be
the primary precipitation type for the southern Alaska Peninsula,
with freezing rain along the Southwest coast. Gale force winds are
expected through Bristol Bay and out of Shelikof Strait, but
overall, precipitation remains the highest impact from this
system. Another system out of the North Pacific moves over the
Central Aleutians by late Tuesday night. Expected impacts include
rain or a rain/snow mix, with snow expected for higher
elevations, and gusty storm force winds along the front.
&&
.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Thursday through Saturday)...
Gulf of Alaska:
A well developed low tracks along the North Gulf Coast through
Saturday. Forecast confidence decreases with the low track and
development through the period. Gale force barrier jets through
Lower Cook Inlet, Barren Islands and Shelikof Strait diminish
Friday. Seas to 14 feet through Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait
subside Friday.
Barrier jets develop along the Eastern North Gulf Coast ahead of
the low through Saturday. A front moves across the Gulf through
Saturday. Widespread high end gales extend across the Gulf through
Saturday, Seas to 20 feet, subsiding.
Bering Sea/Aleutians:
A well developed Western Bering low complex weakens as it swings
around to the South side of the Western Aleutians by Saturday.This
low pulls a second low across the Alaska Peninsula into the
Bering through Saturday. Forecast confidence is uncertain due to
the tracks and development of the lows. Widespread high end gales
across the Bering with areas of storm force winds around the
Western Bering low diminish from East to West over the Bering by
Saturday. Seas to 30 feet over the Western Bering, subsiding. The
Eastern low has gales on both side of the Alaska Peninsula,
diminishing. Seas to 20 feet, subsiding Friday.
A new low approaches the Eastern Aleutians late Friday, and
tracks along the Alaska Peninsula Coast through
Saturday.Widespread gales near shore, with areas of storm force
winds offshore. Seas to 25 feet through Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...
Looking ahead at the extended forecast, little has changed with
the overall pattern as active weather for the southern half of
the state is still anticipated. Models continue to show a 300 mb
North Pacific jet positioned south of the Aleutians on Friday that
moves northeastward over the Gulf and Southcentral through
Saturday, exiting into Canada. An associated surface low is
located in tandem with the jet's left exit region and upstream of
an upper-level ridge as it tracks along the south side of the
Aleutians on Friday. Early on Saturday, the low moves across the
Southwest/Southcentral and dissipates. In summary, this system
will bring a round of widespread precipitation from west to east
across the southern half of the state as it tracks eastward.
From Friday through Sunday night, there is a low pressure system
located just southwest of Shemya that remains nearly stationary
for the entire three days until another low approaches the central
Aleutians from the North Pacific. The front extending from this
low will push northeastward along the Aleutian Chain and into
Southwest/Southcentral through Monday. A broad ridge starts to
build over the Gulf late on Monday.
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 155 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 119 131 176.
Gale Warning: 120 130 132 138 139 150 160 165 170
173-175 177 178 180 185 351 413.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 139 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/AF1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
South Peninsula Road Traffic Report page on Facebook had multiple reports of bad driving conditions on the Sterling highway. Kenai ASOS also reported one quarter mile visibility and heavy snow plus freezing fog for multiple hours along with 20 knot winds leading to blowing and drifting.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1018147.