A thunderstorm produced a localized damaging wind gust over northwestern Virginia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A thunderstorm produced a localized damaging wind gust over northwestern Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 4, 1:59 PM EST, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 259 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low will bring showers through Tuesday morning. Upper level ridge will build over the region through mid week. Ridge starts breaking down by the end of the week as an upper level low lifts from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Trough axis across the Catoctins earlier this morning has moved towards the Chesapeake Bay, subsidence briefly followed in behind it and kept only an isolated shower/thunderstorm around until the afternoon. Some showers and a rumble of thunder are present on the radar as of 19z. Shortwave energy this afternoon will bridge together with some locally potential unstable air for parts of the area. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible throughout much of the area throughout the afternoon and evening. Main areas of interest for potentially locally strong thunderstorms would be the far eastern counties of the eastern WV panhandle and central/NE MD. Climatologically higher PWs, CAPE >1000 j/kg, 20-25 knots bulk shear and higher 4hr updraft helicity probabilities across the aforementioned area may be enough to produce a locally isolated severe storm from late afternoon into the evening hours before subsiding. Showers will become more isolated in nature by the overnight hours as the shortwave moves through the area. After midnight, showers should be mostly confined to mainly along and east of the I-95 corridor. As showers subside and dewpoints remain high with light winds, some patchy fog is expected to develop across a large portion of the area. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Strong area of high pressure over the NE will work against a large upper level low pressure system situated over the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday. With high pressure interaction, fairly strong/moist easterly flow will prevail throughout the day on Tuesday. This will lead to an increase in shower potential. Strong forcing is not expected across the area along with lack luster instability parameters, alleviating the threat for thunderstorm potential. For Wednesday, a saturated air mass will remain in place with the upper level low pressure system to our SW continuing to move to the north. A stationary front will be hovered over our northern areas throughout the day. With the high pressure building from the north briefly, our western zones will have a better potential for showers throughout the day. A moisture axis will be pushed against the high pressure for those areas. Will continue to push low to middle end PoPs for the period and monitor the trends for any significant changes. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The closed off upper level low off to the southwest of our region will continue shifting northward on Thursday. Shortwave energy on the east side of the upper low will combine with a continued weak easterly flow to bring unsettled weather to areas along and near the Allegheny front through Friday. The track of the upper low remains uncertain due to a strong high pressure at the SFC and ridging aloft over the NE US. Depending on the strength and position of the high, the upper low track could shift further east or westward which would determine the best area for precipitation. The majority of our region may remain mostly dry with the areas west of I-81 most likely to experience precipitation at this time. This setup is also conducive for low stratus along with some patchy fog which may lead to some visibility issues especially during rush hour. Daytime and overnight temps should be limited due to overcast skies which means that statistical models and NBM will likely run high. The upper level low starts merging with large upper level ridge positioned over Canada this weekend and is forecast to get swept eastward over our region. A weak front / surface trough associated with the upper level low will move through our region on Saturday. Precipitation chances increase especially on Saturday due to the increased upper level forcing along with a general east to southeasterly flow. Afternoon and overnight temps will remain cooler with highs expected in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s and lower 60s. The upper disturbance is forecast to be through our area by Sunday afternoon with weak high pressure building into the region to end the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Additional rain showers will become scattered during the afternoon and evening. VCTS possible across MRB/MTN/BWI late this afternoon and evening with the possibility for IAD to see an isolated thunderstorm but confidence is low. After precipitation ends tonight, light winds and high dewpoints should allow some patchy fog to form with the possibility of dense fog across the NE portions of the area (BWI/MTN). Showers around Tuesday afternoon and evening near any of the terminals. A continued onshore flow will lead to low stratus forming over all terminals Thursday through Friday with subVFR restrictions likely. Rain will be possible for the MRB and CHO terminals due to the upper level low off to the west. The easterly flow is forecast to become more southeasterly as an upper level disturbance brings increasing chances for precipitation along with possible subVFR conditions. && .MARINE... Winds have diminished below SCA criteria for today and should continue over the next day or so. For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible across the northern portions of the Chesapeake Bay, yielding the potential for a few SMWs later this evening. Behind these showers tonight, marine fog may be possible tomorrow morning across the northern most zones of the bay. No marine hazards expected Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. High pressure will be in control over our marine areas Thursday and Friday and sub-SCA conditions are expected at this time. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Elevated/caution stages are expected much of the week due to persistent onshore flow. Minor flooding will be possible at some point, but confidence on timing remains low. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...ADM NEAR TERM...ADM SHORT TERM...ADM LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/ADM MARINE...JMG/ADM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ052>057-051430- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds will be possible late this afternoon and into this evening for areas mainly north of I-66 and US-50. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Slow moving storms may lead to isolated instances of flooding Tuesday afternoon into evening. There is a potential for heavy rain on Saturday, which may lead to isolated instances of flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- WVZ050>053-055-051430- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy- 1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds will be possible late this afternoon and into this evening for areas mainly north of I-66 and US-50. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Slow moving storms may lead to isolated instances of flooding Tuesday afternoon into evening. There is a potential for heavy rain, which may lead to isolated instances of flooding Friday night through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-051430- Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 1020 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday There is a potential for heavy rain, which may lead to isolated instances of flooding Friday night through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 76 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:40 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reported down on West King Street near Hope Street.
A tree was reported down in the 1900 block of VA-637 Guard Hill Road.
A tree blew down on Crooked Run Road near Steep Hill Road. A tree blew down in the 200 block of VA-658 Rockland Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 978419, 978421, 978422.