A weak upper level disturbance moved through Central New York on this day, triggering heavy rain producing thunderstorms along a stationary front during the late afternoon and evening. A maximum of 3 to 5 inches of rain fell in a short amount of time, primarily in a narrow corridor along Interstate-81 in Cortland county.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
A weak upper level disturbance moved through Central New York on this day, triggering heavy rain producing thunderstorms along a stationary front during the late afternoon and evening. A maximum of 3 to 5 inches of rain fell in a short amount of time, primarily in a narrow corridor along Interstate-81 in Cortland county. Significant flash flooding was observed in many areas of the county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 4, 2:32 PM EST, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 332 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers with some thunder largely wrap up this evening, then a few more showers are possible Tuesday. Mild temperatures are expected through the rest of the week with high pressure building in along with drier conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 230 pm update... An area of light to moderate rain, with some embedded thunder, continues to slowly pass through the Catskills and Poconos this afternoon. Meanwhile, additional scattered showers are popping up west of I-81 in central NY and northeast PA. Totals with these should generally be less than a half an inch, but higher totals cannot be ruled out in any heavier downpours should additional storms pop up - which looks possible, with IR indicating higher cloud tops to our west. Overnight, showers largely taper off with this first passing wave moving out of the area. However, lower clouds will stick around, and fog is looking likely across most of the region courtesy of ample lower level moisture in light of today's rain. This will also help to keep temperatures a little more mild overnight, with lows in the mid and upper 50s. The upper trough continues to dig southward into the east-central US tonight, and a cutoff low is expected to close off over the lower Mississippi valley by early Tuesday. This will remain almost stationary while an upper ridge starts to build to the east. Another weak shortwave continuing to ripple through will keep in a chance for some stray showers for the daytime Tuesday, but these will quickly wrap up into the evening as the ridge builds northward. Clouds will stick around Tuesday through Tuesday night, which will keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s during the afternoon, possibly in the lower 70s across the Wyoming valley. Temperatures bottom out only in the 50s again Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 305 PM Update... Surface high pressure/upper ridge builds into the region on Wednesday and Thursday with drier conditions. NAEFS showing H500 Wednesday into Thursday of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Temperatures should be quite pleasant with highs into the 70s on both days. Wednesday will likely have overcast low clouds and maybe some drizzle for the first half of the day for much of the area as low level moisture will remain trapped under a subsidence inversion, but the clouds should start to mix out by early afternoon with breaks of sun later in the day. Thursday is looking like the better one of the two days and with the sunshine, some areas could see highs climb up into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 315 PM Update... Not much in the way of changes in the long term period. Models are having a tough time sorting out a highly amplified and complex pattern. There is a chance that the ridge holds through the weekend and most of the area remains dry. For now, a blend of ensemble and deterministic guidance spreads out chance PoPs through the entire weekend due to the uncertainty. Have lowered high temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday from previous forecast. There is actually decent agreement that the surface high pushes just east of New England and SE flow off the water would produce mostly cloudy conditions, limiting sunshine and keeping temperatures cool. 415 AM Update... The cut off low finally begins to become more incorporated with the mean flow as a strong jet stream ejects into the plains out of the inter mountain west. The upper level ridge over the northeast looks to stall the front associated with the phasing cut off low so there is uncertainty with where a band of heavier rain will set up as we head into next weekend. As of now, guidance is all over the place with what will happen which is expected given that there is a cut off low meandering about. Most models do keep the heaviest precipitation to our south and west, though recent trends have been to two low pressure systems forming, one off the SE US coast and another north of the Great Lakes. Given the upper level flow with both a strong sub tropical jet over the central US and a strong polar jet exiting the canadian rockies the flow is very complex and gives low confidence on the forecast for next weekend. Though there is confidence that temperatures will be warmer than average with strong ridging in place and a deepening trough out west. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lingering showers and low clouds continue to lead to MVFR and fuel alternate restrictions across most terminals. Some spots, particularly KBGM and KSYR, remain socked in under IFR ceilings, but brief drops to IFR visibility and ceilings will be possible the rest of the afternoon at all terminals in lingering showers. The rain is expected to slowly taper off after 02Z Tuesday, but IFR or worse restrictions settle in at all terminals the rest of the night with fog and low clouds area- wide. A slow improvement to MVFR is expected after sunrise. Winds will remain light and variable through the next 24 hour, favoring easterly across the Mohawk Valley. Outlook... Tuesday...Light isolated showers are possible through Tuesday which could contain restrictions in rain, fog and low clouds. Wednesday through Friday...Drier weather expected with generally VFR conditions expected. Saturday...A few showers will be possible late, otherwise mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...HLC NEAR TERM...HLC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...AJG/MPK AVIATION...HLC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 323 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072-051930- Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben- Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango- Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna- Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne- 323 PM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Lingering showers and storms the rest of the afternoon and into the evening may produce heavy downpours at times. This could lead to some minor localized flooding, especially where multiple storms can pass through. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC guidelines.
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 37 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:02 UTC.
7 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding was covering the road near Greek Peak Ski Area. The rental shop was beginning to flood. Officials were closing the roadway.
Water was rapidly flowing over Route 41.
Roads were shut down with high water between the intersection of Locust and Clinton.
Flash flooding has inundated the intersection of Route 392 and US-11. These roads have been shut down.
Numerous roads were flooded in the area and closed to traffic.
Roads and a mobile home were flooded by severe flash flooding.
Severe flash flooding was reported throughout the Town of Virgil. A State of Emergency was placed in effect for the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 989574, 989579, 989586, 989591, 989593, 989596, 989597.