A wet pattern at the beginning of the month resulted in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Florida panhandle. The ground was already saturated from previous above average rainfall, and the result was numerous areas of flash flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TAE wrote it up.
A wet pattern at the beginning of the month resulted in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Florida panhandle. The ground was already saturated from previous above average rainfall, and the result was numerous areas of flash flooding. The Panama City area was hit particularly hard during the early morning hours of October 7th with very heavy rainfall rates leading to considerable flash flooding with numerous roads impassible.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 4, 4:29 AM CST, 3 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
629 AM EDT Mon Oct 4 2021
.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]
Pockets of IFR in low cigs/vsbys briefly impact VLD through 14Z,
and possibly ABY and DHN, but with much lower confidence. SHRA w/
embedded thunder likely much of the day at DHN and ECP, but likely
holding off until this evening at ABY and TLH; maintained PROB30
at VLD. A round of IFR cigs/vsbys likely for the terminals north
of I-10 tonight. Winds Light and variable to SSE around 5 knots.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [420 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A cut off low settling into the lower MS Valley will continue to
increase column moisture across the region within a deep southerly
flow. Precipitable Water values will in turn increase to around
1.8 inches. Meanwhile, the flow aloft will be stronger compared to
previous days, so showers and thunderstorms that develop will be
moving along more quickly. Highest chances of precip will be west
of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers where likely PoPs are in
place through tonight. WPC also maintains a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall over this area, so there is the potential for
isolated flash flooding, particularly the western FL Panhandle
and Southeast Alabama where cells will have a tendency to train.
In collaboration with surrounding offices, a Flash Flood Watch is
now in effect for portions of this area. See the hydrology section
at the bottom for more details on rainfall amounts and impacts.
High temperatures in the middle to upper 80s east of the Flint
and Apalachicola Rivers, with lower 80s to the west in the rain-
cooled air. Low temperatures well above normal in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, which is a sign of the uncomfortably high humidity
levels for early October.
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...
The cutoff Upper level Low will settle over the southern
Mississippi Valley during the day on Tuesday. This Low is expected
to deepen during the day as a surface Low will develop. Ahead of
the cutoff Low, there is a Cold Front that will be moving east
across the Southern States. This will bring another round of
widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. Localized
heavy rainfall will be possible on Tuesday; which could lead to
isolated flooding problems. There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall on Tuesday due to the expected rainfall accumulations of
1-3 inches for all our areas, except for the SE Big Bend
counties.
High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast in the
upper 70s across SE Alabama to the mid 80s across the southeast
Big Bend. Low temperatures overnight are forecast in the upper 60s
to low 70s.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
A couple of shortwave troughs from the west will nudge the cutoff
Low that's been settled over the lower Mississippi Valley. The
cutoff Low will begin to lift north-northeast through the day on
Thursday with the Cold Front being able to push in through the day
on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of
the front, with PoPs around 50-60 percent Thursday through Friday.
PoPs begin to decrease to 30 percent and less through the weekend
following the frontal passage due to slightly drier air moving
in. Daytime highs will not be affected much by the front. Highs
will be in the low 80s for most of the CWA to the mid 80s in the
SE Big Bend region for the beginning of the term and all areas
will be in the low 80s through the rest of the term. Low
temperatures, however, will cool to the mid to upper 60s following
the cold front.
.MARINE...
Light to moderate southeast flow will set up through much of the
week ahead, with high pressure to the east. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage also as a low pressure
system slowly moves into the southeast states. The front will
remain to the west through Thursday into Friday with unsettled
weather persisting towards next weekend.
.FIRE WEATHER...
A period of wet weather is expected through at least mid-week.
Highest chance of precip will be to the west of the Flint and
Apalachicola Rivers today, then east over much of the tri-state
area on Tuesday. The combination of low mixing heights and light
transport winds will lead to low dispersions across the entire
region today and Tuesday. Outside of low dispersions, there are no
other fire weather concerns.
.HYDROLOGY...
A wetter pattern will continue for the next couple of days as an
area of low pressure moves across the area. Widespread rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible from Albany to Tallahassee
and westward, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches possible
over portions of Southeast AL and the Western FL Panhandle. A
Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Tuesday for parts of this
area, where higher amounts over a short period of time may lead to
flash flooding. For the remainder of the area, dry antecedent
conditions should keep the overall flood threat fairly low, with
only a small chance for flash flooding. Area rivers are in good
shape.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 86 71 82 70 82 / 40 20 80 40 70
Panama City 83 71 78 71 81 / 60 70 90 70 80
Dothan 82 69 76 68 79 / 70 70 90 60 90
Albany 85 70 80 70 82 / 50 50 80 50 80
Valdosta 86 70 83 71 83 / 30 20 60 40 60
Cross City 87 71 85 72 85 / 20 10 50 30 50
Apalachicola 83 74 81 74 80 / 30 40 80 60 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Central Walton-
Coastal Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-North Walton-South Walton-
Washington.
GA...None.
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Coffee-Geneva.
GM...None.
&&
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM...Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...MontgomeryThe Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 45 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:01 UTC.
33 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Roads were flooded in the Gulf Pines neighborhood in the Miramar Beach area.
A few roads were flooded in Springfield due to heavy rainfall.
Water was reported over the road near the intersection of Highway 79 and Steel Field Road.
Flooding on Peters Drive was at least 5 inches deep with water close to entering houses.
Flooding was reported on Vinson Road.
The intersection of Highway 77 and Crystal Lake was reported underwater.
Highway 77 was partially closed due to flooding.
The intersection of Front Beach Road and S Thomas Drive was flooded.
Flooded streets with water in garages was reported in the Lynn Haven area.
South Tyndall Parkway was flooded between Boat Race Road and Hickory Street.
The road was flooded near North Lagoon Drive and Country Place.
Video on social media showed significant street flooding on Tyndall Parkway in Parker with stalled vehicles.
Business 98 between Cherry Street and Parker was closed due to flooding.
Star Ave and Highway 22 were closed due to flooding.
Third and Seneca Street were closed due to flooding.
The road was flooded at Parker Elementary School.
The intersection of 7th Ave and Tyndall Pkwy was closed due to flooding.
Tram Road in front of Veterans Home was closed due to flooding.
E 12th Street was closed due to flooding.
Laird and Allison to Joan Ave was closed due to flooding.
Thomas Drive was closed due to flooding.
The intersection of Game Farm Road and Transmitter Road was closed due to flooding.
Highway 79 S to the north of West Bay was closed due to flooding.
Highway 389 and Cason Circle was closed due to flooding.
Highway 390 in the Derby Woods area was closed due to flooding.
Nehi Road at Star Ave was closed due to flooding.
Highway 77 at Mosley was closed due to flooding.
Bailey Bridge on Highway 77 was flooded with traffic backed up.
Highway 2300 near the GCCC Training Center was closed due to flooding.
There were numerous road closures and multiple high water rescues in the Panama City area.
Four inches of water was reported in a home on North Gray Ave.
The Old Bicycle Road Bridge was underwater.
Tyndall Parkway was closed due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 985952, 985953, 985954, 985955, 985959, 985956, 985957, 985958, 985960, 985961, 985962, 985963, 985964, 985965, 985966, 985967, 985969, 985970, 985971, 985972, 985973, 985974, 985975, 985976, 985977, 985978, 985979, 985980, 985981, 985982, 985983, 985984, 985985.