Continued dry conditions across western Colorado allowed the drought to persist across the region through the month of November.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Continued dry conditions across western Colorado allowed the drought to persist across the region through the month of November.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 10:37 PM MST, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1137 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 253 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 The low center defining the base of the rex block over the Pacific Northwest was filling in according to latest model analyses, and as models had predicted. As the low lifts north as an open wave over the Northwest some of that energy is ejected across the northern portion of the forecast area tonight. Concurrently, a mid-level shortwave trough moves southeastward across the northern High Plains overnight. Moisture entrained between these two systems experiences weak quasi-geostrophic lift at mid-levels with jet divergence providing additional lift. In addition, the northern mountains will be aided by orographic lift provided by westerly winds aloft. This general pattern will persist Monday through Monday night with another low-amplitude trough passing during the day Monday and another approaching late Monday night. As a result, the northern and portions of the central mountains of the forecast area will experience prolonged periods of light snow. The lower elevations will see rain as snow levels only lower to near 9000 feet tonight and around 8500 feet Monday night. Snow amounts aren't expected to be significant with only 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts above 9000 feet accumulating during the next 36 hours across the Elkhead and Park Mountains with lesser amounts to the south. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 253 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Unsettled conditions will linger through the week and into the coming weekend. Northwest flow behind the shortwave on Monday will keep chances of light precipitation in the forecast for the Elk, Park, and Flat Top mountains through Tuesday morning. At that point, the next shortwave begins to affect eastern Utah and western Colorado. Discrepancies begin to pop up between model solutions at this point, mainly in the form of the timing of the best precipitation. The EC is faster and more bullish with its precipitation, while the GFS and NAM are a bit slower and drier. There is decent agreement that precipitation will begin across northern portions of the area, favoring the higher terrain, and will shift south Tuesday afternoon and evening. Yet again, in the northwest flow behind this system, some light orographic precipitation will linger over the northern mountains before finally coming to an end Wednesday evening. Wednesday afternoon finds the models in good agreement of a ridge building in over much of the Intermountain West, bringing a period of dry and quiet weather before the next disturbance moves in for Friday. And this is the point where the forecast really becomes uncertain, with little agreement between any of the deterministic models, and even between ensemble model solutions. GFS and EC both indicate a shortwave trough moving across northern portions of the area on Friday morning, while the Canadian shows not even a hint of this. By Saturday morning, models are showing three totally different solutions. The GFS builds in another ridge, the EC keeps unsettled northwest flow, and the Canadian maintains generally zonal flow. The forecast for this period should come into better agreement with subsequent runs, so watch this space for updates. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal Tuesday, before rising to near normal Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures into the weekend will be generally below average thanks to expected cloudiness and unsettled conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1126 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 VCTS remains possible for HDN, otherwise scattered shower activity will continue to push over the central and northern ranges overnight. Most TAF sites will remain with VFR conditions, though, any passing showers may briefly lower TAF conditions below ILS breakpoints. Showers will be focused over higher terrain along and north of I-70, while the remainder of the area will experience SCT to BKN skies persisting through Monday, along with light, terrain driven winds. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...BGB AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 634 AM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011315- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 634 AM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers and some mountain snow will fall later this afternoon into the overnight hours. A few thunderstorms will be possible across the northern valleys this afternoon but chances remain slim. 2 to 4 inches of snow is possible for the northern mountains with 1 to 2 inches elsewhere. Precipitation will stay north of the I-70 corridor. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Unsettled weather will continue through the week with several disturbances moving through causing more rain and mountain snow. Temperatures will run near normal through the period. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The status of the drought remained unchanged through the month of November as extreme (D3) drought conditions persisted across the entirety of the zone.
The status of the drought remained unchanged across the zone through the month of November. The extreme (D3) drought continued over all but the far eastern portion of the zone where severe (D2) conditions remained.
The status of the drought remained unchanged through the month of November as extreme (D3) drought conditions persisted across the entirety of the zone.
The status of the drought remained unchanged across the entirety of the zone through the month of November. Extreme (D3) drought persisted across the far western portion of the zone with severe (D2) conditions across the central areas and moderate (D1) drought across the far eastern portion of the zone.
The status of the drought remained unchanged across the entirety of the zone through the month of November as extreme (D3) drought continued over the western half of the zone with severe (D2) conditions over the eastern half.
The status of the drought remained unchanged across the entirety of the zone through the month of November. Extreme (D3) drought persisted across the western half of the zone with severe (D2) conditions over the eastern half.
The status of the drought remained unchanged across the zone through the month of November as extreme (D3) drought persisted across all but the far northwest corner where severe (D2) conditions continued.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 988135, 988136, 988137, 988138, 988139, 988140, 988141.