Lack of persistent rain and above normal temperatures allowed severe (D2) level drought to continue into early November, from the original development in late October across southern Zapata County and southwestern Starr County.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Lack of persistent rain and above normal temperatures allowed severe (D2) level drought to continue into early November, from the original development in late October across southern Zapata County and southwestern Starr County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 11:35 PM CST, 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1235 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with a few higher clouds and a southeast breeze during the afternoon hours. Some light patchy shallow fog may come and go near daybreak Monday, mainly north of the RGV. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...Mostly clear skies are being observed across all terminals this evening with VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds will continue do decrease overnight before increasing slighting by Monday mid morning. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A Halloween high pressure system is currently over Texas which will allow for a spooktacular evening. Light southeasterly winds, lows in the 60s, and mostly clear skies are expected tonight. A mid-level shortwave situated over the southwest will creep its way across Texas for Monday. However, this shortwave is not expected to shake up our current weather pattern as no precipitation is expected. For Monday, southeasterly winds will continue as temperatures and dewpoints gradually increase. Tomorrow's highs will be above average in the lower 90s with dewpoints reaching the upper 60s making it feel warm and muggy. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): A very broad and shallow 500 mb ridge will be in place over the U.S./Mexico border region on Tues. A series of 500 mb short waves will then carve out a large long wave trough over the eastern half of the lower 48 states. With this large trough axis in place, a pretty significant cold front will move into TX Tues and Wed. This cold front is then expected to move through the RGV Thurs/Thurs Night. After the fropa, 500 mb ridging will then build back in place over the RGV during the latter half of the work week into next weekend allowing for temps to warm up steadily. Although the moisture advection ahead of this front is somewhat limited, the cold front is pretty potent and this will provide the RGV with the window from some decent pops. However, the QPF outlook is pretty pessimistic at this time with the WPC 7 Day QPF values for the region totaling <1.0 inch. The GFS and ECMWF are not in good agreement with the timing of the fropa and the expected amount of CAA after the front. Big differences show up in the 500 mb pattern from both models starting on Thurs with the GFS showing a large closed 500 mb low over the upper Midwest this weekend with the ECMWf showing this trough/closed low positioned move over the SE U.S. So the overall confidence for the warmup on Tues and Wed is pretty good because this is one thing that both the GFS and ECMWF agree on. Confidence Thurs and Fri with the fropa and associated CAA is below average due to the timing differences. The forecast confidence then rebounds somewhat for next weekend as both the GFS and ECMWF trend closer for both temps and pops. MARINE (Today through Monday Night): Scary calm seas expected to prevail through the short term period as southeast winds stay light to moderate with seas at 2 feet or less. Tuesday through Friday Night: Surface ridging over the Gulf of Mex will maintain a light to moderate SE surface flow over the lower TX coastline Tues and Wed. More adverse marine conditions are expected to start late Wed into Thurs, but timing differences with the GFS and ECMWF with the fropa make the exact start of the stronger winds and elevated seas a bit tricky. Expect some potential for SCA conditions from late Thurs into Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 85 69 85 / 0 0 0 10 BROWNSVILLE 69 87 70 87 / 0 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 66 87 67 87 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 66 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 81 76 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv 56-Hallman...Aviation
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Brownsville TX 402 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 TXZ248>257-351-353-012115- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 402 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday There is an elevated risk of rip currents at area beaches Wednesday through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-012115- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 402 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Small Craft Advisories may be needed for all or portions of the lower Texas coastal waters Thursday through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) Drought continued across southwestern portions of Starr County due to a lack of significant rainfall and temperatures above seasonal average.
Severe (D2) Drought continued across southern portions of Zapata County due to a lack of significant rainfall and temperatures above seasonal average.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 988044, 988045.