A deep low pressure system passed just to the north of the Canadian border, which led to a pair of cold fronts passing through North Dakota. The tight pressure gradient combined with the cold air pouring in behind the fronts led to strong winds over western and central North Dakota.
Every event with a place to put it; 32 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A deep low pressure system passed just to the north of the Canadian border, which led to a pair of cold fronts passing through North Dakota. The tight pressure gradient combined with the cold air pouring in behind the fronts led to strong winds over western and central North Dakota. The strongest wind gust was 72 mph in Divide County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 16, 10:15 AM CST, 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1015 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1009 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 Winds have rapidly been on the increase over far western North Dakota as the front quickly progresses to the west, with Williston already reporting a gust to 64 mph. As the front rapidly progresses east, winds will continue to pick up throughout the area. For mid-morning update, main concern shifted towards fire weather. Latest guidance suggested humidity values dipping into the 20s over much of southwest and parts of south central North Dakota west of the Missouri River. With the expected strong winds gusting around 60 mph, this will result in critical fire weather conditions. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for this are through the day. UPDATE Issued at 557 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 The cold front that is the main focus of today's weather is just moving through Glasgow, MT, with a recent wind gust at Malta (just west of Glasgow) of 64 mph. The surface low is centered in central Saskatchewan and continues to deepen, as expected. There are some light radar returns across much of the area, but no evidence of anything making it to the ground. Will continue to carry low POPs in the central through mid-morning. No changes needed with this update, it's a waiting game at this point for the cold front to reach western North Dakota and winds increase quickly thereafter. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 347 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 Strong westerly winds highlight the forecast today, with wind headlines in effect for most of the area this morning through tonight. Main change with this update was to add in a High Wind Warning for the entire area starting at midnight tonight. An upper trough is moving over the Canadian Rockies and is expected to close off later today as it moves through the Canadian Prairies, with an attendant surface low deepening as well. Latest surface analysis had a warm front extending from the center of the low and placed from McKenzie Country to Emmons County, with Beach sitting at 54 degrees as of 930 UTC. Right behind the front sits a pre- frontal trough, with the cold front back in central Montana. As the surface low deepens and the cold front enters western North Dakota later this morning, winds are expected to increase quickly, with pressure rises on the order of 7 to 8 mb per 3 hours, and a significant push of cold air advection. 850mb winds are advertised around 45-55 knots, and with moderate boundary layer mixing with the cold air advection, the expectation is for surface winds sustained around 40 mph and gusting to 60 mph. This signal is strongest in western North Dakota and decreases to the east, and is covered by the existing headlines, with the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory in effect from this morning through this evening. We did add in the mention of near critical fire weather conditions in the southwest and parts of the south central today, with the strong winds and drier air moving in behind the front. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s in these areas, and in the 40s elsewhere. By tonight, the expectation is that the upper low will be located just to our north, and will be deepening and becoming more stacked as it moves east. Guidance has been consistent in keeping the center of both the surface and upper low north of the International Border, which keeps the bulk of precipitation out of the forecast area. However, there is still a chance of snow in the northwest and north central tonight as a secondary cold front drops through, with only light accumulations expected. We went ahead and extended/expanded the High Wind Warning to be across all of western and central North Dakota starting tonight at midnight, and ending at 6 PM CST Wednesday. For 00Z and 06Z Wednesday, NAEFS percentiles do show 850mb wind speeds at the max for those times compared to climatology, signaling that even though it is not the ideal time for boundary layer mixing, there is certainly potential for strong winds to persist through tonight, and lapse rates stay steep during this time as well. With overnight lows in the upper teens to upper 20s and continued strong winds, wind chills will drop to the single digits through the night and into the morning. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 347 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 The extended period is highlighted by another day of strong winds before quieter weather and mostly dry conditions through the weekend. On Wednesday, the stacked low will continue moving off to the east, with strong northwest winds continuing across the area through the day due to the pressure gradient and persistent strong low level flow. Highs will only be in the mid 20s to lower 30s, which will keep wind chills in the teens. Some light snow could linger in the north central in the morning, otherwise we'll start to see some clearing skies in the southwest as the system starts to clear the area. Some weak ridging builds in for the end of the work week, thankfully lessening winds and drying out the forecast. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the weekend, with highs around 50 in the southwest, but only in the mid to upper 30s in the north central. From there, quasi-zonal flow develops and persists through the weekend, with guidance showing a few weak waves moving through, but nothing consistent enough to advertise any precipitation chances at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1205 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 IFR/MVFR ceilings to start the period at KMOT/KJMS, although should improve through the night tonight. In addition, LLWS will continue to spread to all TAF sites within the next few hours. Westerly winds will begin to increase in western North Dakota early this morning and expand eastward as a cold frontal boundary pushes into and through the area. 40 to 50 kt winds are possible at all TAF sites, except KJMS, although the strongest gusts are more likely the further west one goes. While KJMS is unlikely to see 40 to 50 kt gusts, conditions will still be quite windy with 25 to 30 kt gusts possible. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1205 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 IFR/MVFR ceilings to start the period at KMOT/KJMS, although should improve through the night tonight. In addition, LLWS will continue to spread to all TAF sites within the next few hours. Westerly winds will begin to increase in western North Dakota early this morning and expand eastward as a cold frontal boundary pushes into and through the area. 40 to 50 kt winds are possible at all TAF sites, except KJMS, although the strongest gusts are more likely the further west one goes. While KJMS is unlikely to see 40 to 50 kt gusts, conditions will still be quite windy with 25 to 30 kt gusts possible. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday for NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045. Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NDZ018>020-031>034-040>045. High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday for NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NDZ004-012-022-035- 036-046-047-050. && UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...MJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 954 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 NDZ001>003-009>011-021-171600- Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McLean- 954 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, and south central North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A High Wind Warning is in effect today and tonight. See weather.gov/bis for details. Near critical fire weather conditions expected today due to strong winds and lower humidity values. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A High Wind Warning is in effect Wednesday. See weather.gov/bis for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ004-012-022-035-036-046-047-050-171600- Bottineau-McHenry-Sheridan-Burleigh-Kidder-Emmons-Logan-McIntosh- 954 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Wind Advisory is in effect today and tonight. See weather.gov/bis for details. Near critical fire weather conditions expected today due to gusty winds and lower humidity values. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A High Wind Warning is in effect Wednesday. See weather.gov/bis for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ005-013-023-025-037-048-051-171600- Rolette-Pierce-Wells-Foster-Stutsman-La Moure-Dickey- 954 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A High Wind Warning is in effect Wednesday. See weather.gov/bis for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045-171600- McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton- Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux- 954 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021 /854 AM MST Tue Nov 16 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A High Wind Warning is in effect today and tonight. In addition, a Red Flag Warning is in effect today. See weather.gov/bis for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A High Wind Warning is in effect Wednesday for strong northwest winds. See weather.gov/bis for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
826 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0751 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 NW WILLISTON 48.26N 103.75W
11/16/2021 M64 MPH WILLIAMS ND ASOS
ASOS STATION KXWA WILLISTON AIRPORT.
&&
AEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1053 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1045 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N ALEXANDER 47.87N 103.64W
11/16/2021 M42 MPH MCKENZIE ND MESONET
MESONET STATION DW2470 ALEXANDER.
&&
JJAPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1055 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1045 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 N ALEXANDER 47.87N 103.64W
11/16/2021 M42 MPH MCKENZIE ND MESONET
MESONET STATION DW2470 ALEXANDER.
&&
JJAThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
36 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Crosby RAWS reported a wind gust of 72 mph.
Tioga AWOS reported a wind gust of 67 mph.
Blaisdell NDDOT site reported a wind gust of 71 mph.
Minot ASOS reported a wind gust of 60 mph.
New Town NDDOT site reported a wind gust of 63 mph.
Golden Valley NDDOT site reported a wind gust of 59 mph.
Garrison ASOS reported a sustained wind of 40 mph.
Beach AWOS reported a wind gust of 60 mph.
Gladstone NDDOT site reported a wind gust of 65 mph.
Mandan AWOS reported a wind gust of 60 mph.
Bowman AWOS reported a sustained wind of 46 mph.
Hettinger ASOS reported a wind gust of 59 mph.
Tatanka Prairie RAWS reported a wind gust of 61 mph.
Lostwood RAWS reported a wind gust of 61 mph.
Renville County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Billings County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Dunn County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Oliver County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Slope County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Hettinger County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Grant County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Turtle Mountain RAWS reported a wind gust of 58 mph.
Rugby NDDOT site reported a wind gust of 59 mph.
Denhoff NDDOT site reported a wind gust of 63 mph.
Harvey AWOS reported a sustained wind of 43 mph.
Carrington AWOS reported a wind gust of 59 mph.
Bismarck ASOS reported a wind gust of 58 mph.
Arrowwood RAWS reported a wind gust of 59 mph.
Wishek NDDOT site reported a sustained wind of 42 mph.
Oakes AWOS reported a sustained wind of 40 mph.
Bottineau County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
McHenry County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Kidder County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Emmons County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
Logan County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
LaMoure County had estimated wind gusts to 60 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 991960, 991962, 991963, 991964, 991966, 991967, 991968, 991972, 991973, 991974, 991977, 991979, 991980, 991983, 991984, 991987, 991988, 991989, 991991, 991992, 991993, 991961, 991965, 991969, 991970, 991971, 991975, 991976, 991981, 991982, 991985, 991986, 991990, 991994, 991995, 991996.