A long period northerly swell was causing hazardous marine and coastal conditions along the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico. A High Surf Advisory and a High Rip Current Risk statement were in effect.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
A long period northerly swell was causing hazardous marine and coastal conditions along the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico. A High Surf Advisory and a High Rip Current Risk statement were in effect.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 16, 11:50 AM AST, 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1150 AM AST Tue Nov 16 2021
.UPDATE...Early morning showers affected the northern
municipalities of PR, due to a narrow patch of moisture that moved
through the area. However, the patch of moisture moved away by the
mid morning hours, and dry air has dominated over the local
islands. No rain has affected the local islands since then, and
the latest satellite imagery shows very little in terms of cloud
development over the islands. The hi-res models show some minor
rainfall accumulations this afternoon across SW-PR, with fair
weather elsewhere. Therefore no changes were made to the inherited
forecast, which currently indicates a slight chance of light rain
across the interior into western PR, as well as the slight
possibility of light showers streaming off the USVI. The dry air
moving in is around 2 standard deviations from normal for the
month, so there is good reason to expect fair weather for the rest
of today, especially when there is also high pressure in the mid
and upper levels, promoting further stability.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conds expected through the forecast period. No
significant hazards are expected in or around the local terminals.
The local winds will be from the east at around 15KT with
occasional gusts and sea breeze variations through around 16/21Z.
Winds will decrease slightly thereafter, with ENE winds at around
10KT overnight.
&&
.MARINE...Marine conditions continue to be hazardous. No changes
were made to the current advisories. The Small Craft and High Surf
Advisories continue in effect. There is also a high risk of rip
currents for many of the local beaches. Please see the local
marine and surf zone products for the latest details.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM AST Tue Nov 16 2021/
SYNOPSIS...
Hazardous coastal and marine conditions will persist through
midweek due to a northerly swell and increasing winds. Generally
fair weather is expected today due to a drier air mass filtering
in. Patches of moisture as expected to increase by the latter
part of the workweek, enhancing the probability of showers.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.
Moisture will erode today, and little to no shower activity will
affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Trade winds
disturbances will bring an increase in humidity with a showery
weather pattern Wednesday and Thursday. However, an upper-level
ridge with a mid-level high pressure will create hostile atmospheric
conditions for vertical development, thus thunderstorm formation
is not anticipated. Although the upper level-ridge will weaken
today and onward as a polar trough near the western Atlantic moves
eastward, the mid- level high pressure will hold over the region,
maintaining relatively stable weather conditions.
Winds will increase today into Wednesday in response to the
strengthening of the local pressure gradient. Low RH values
associated with the dry air mass arriving today, the increasing
winds, and the available dry fuels across the Southern Coastal
Plains of Puerto Rico required the issuance of a Fire Danger
Statement (RFDSJU) today.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
A surface high pressure located over the north-central Atlantic will
maintain winds low level winds out of the east to east-northeast at
around 15 knots for Friday. The steering flow will continue to drag
patches of moisture into the area, with precipitable water values
around 1.8 to 2.0 inches, which is above normal for this time of
year. At the mid-levels, the ridge should begin to weaken due to
a polar trough exiting the eastern coast of the United States. As
a result, moisture is expected to extend deeper into the
atmosphere, with mid-level relative humidities increasing above
70%. As is usual under this pattern, advective showers are
expected to move over the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto
Rico through the morning hours, followed by afternoon activity
over western Puerto Rico.
The weather for the weekend will depend on the proximity to the
region of a prefrontal trough. So far, the guidance show that this
feature may get close enough to the islands by late Saturday into
Sunday. Temperatures at 500 mb are expected to drop to
-6 degree Celsius, increasing instability aloft. Therefore, another
increase in showers, and possible isolated thunderstorms is
anticipated for the latter half of the weekend. For the first couple
of days of the next workweek, not much changes are expected in the
weather pattern, as the trough and its associated moisture will
remain in place over the eastern Caribbean. Additionally, the
pressure gradient will weaken in response to this trough by Saturday
onward , with the steering flow around 4 to 7 knots, meaning that
the shower activity could linger for a longer period of time over
the same places. Since this is a long term forecast, the confidence
in the forecast is low at this time, and hence the forecast will be
adjusted accordingly in the next few days.
AVIATION...VFR conds expected through the forecast period. Winds
will increase between 15 and 20 kt with higher gust and sea breeze
variations after 16/12z, winds will become calm to light and VRB
once again through the nighttime (16/22z-onward).
MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions continue due to a northerly swell
invading the local waters. During the night, near buoy
observations ranged between 4-6 feet with a period of around 16
seconds. The outer buoy (41043) was showing seas up to 7 feet.
Additionally, winds are expected to pick up by later tonight into
mid-week, maintaining hazardous seas through at least midweek.
Small craft advisories are in effect for most of the local waters,
due to seas 5 to 8 feet and winds out of the east at 15 to 20
knots, with stronger gusts. For the beaches, there is a High Surf
Advisory for the northern coast of Puerto Rico, Culebra and St.
Croix. There is a high rip current risk for the northern coast of
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, St. Thomas and St. Croix.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 85 76 / 0 30 30 50
STT 87 77 87 78 / 10 30 50 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for Culebra-
Mayaguez and Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San
Juan and Vicinity-Southeast-Vieques.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for Culebra-North
Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for St Croix-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for St Croix.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST Wednesday for Anegada
Passage Southward to 17N-Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico
from 10 NM to 17N-Coastal Waters of Northern USVI and
Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern USVI Vieques
and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST Wednesday for Coastal Waters
of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST Thursday for Atlantic Waters
of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST Wednesday for Mona Passage
Southward to 17N.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM AST Wednesday for Coastal Waters
of Northwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.
&&
SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....JA
PUBLIC DESK...GLPerspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo. Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR 515 AM AST martes 16 de noviembre de 2021 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-170915- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central- Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra- Vieques-Las aguas costeras cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe- 515 AM AST martes 16 de noviembre de 2021 Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico. .Dia Uno...Esta noche. .Viento...Se esperan vientos sostenidos de 20 mph (17 nudos) a traves de las aguas locales y areas costeras. .Oleaje...Se espera oleaje peligroso de hasta 9 pies a traves de la mayoria de las aguas locales. .Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas para la mayoria de las playas de la costa del Atlantico de Puerto Rico y Culebra y el norte de Vieques. .Incendios...Se espera un aumento en el riesgo de ocurrir incendios a traves de las planicies del sur de Puerto Rico. .Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes Se espera que continue un oleaje peligroso de hasta 7 pies y un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas durante la semana laboral, con el mayor impacto a traves de las aguas del Atlantico y las playas expuestas hacia el norte y este, respectivamente. El viento aumentara el miercoles; y acumulaciones de aguas en carreteras y en areas con pobre drenaje seran posibles. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar cualquier informacion sobre inundaciones, oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-170915- San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 515 AM AST martes 16 de noviembre de 2021 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche. .Viento...Se esperan vientos sostenidos de 20 mph (17 nudos) a traves de las aguas mar afuera del Caribe. .Oleaje...Se espera oleaje peligroso de hasta 8 pies a traves de las aguas costeras del este y norte. .Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas para las playas del este de Santa Cruz y el norte de San Tomas. .Dias dos hasta el siete...martes a domingo Se espera que continue un oleaje peligroso de hasta 7 pies y un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas durante la semana laboral, con el mayor impacto a traves de las aguas del Atlantico y las playas expuestas hacia el norte y este, respectivamente. El viento aumentara el miercoles; y acumulaciones de aguas en carreteras y en areas con pobre drenaje seran posibles. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar cualquier informacion sobre oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A male that was swimming behind La Concha Hotel in the Condado area drowned in a rip current.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, San Juan and Vicinity | 2021-11-16 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 993075.