Winter Storm and Damaging Winds in New Mexico, December 14 to 15, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
517 PM MST Tue Dec 14 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A high impact weather scenario will evolve the next 24 hrs over NM.
Powerful winds, intense LLWS, rain, snow, and blowing dust are all
likely to impact the area. The most significant impacts will occur
in the window btwn 10Z and 19Z as a powerful cold front rips through
the state. A band of rain/snow will mainly impact KGUP and KFMN from
09Z to 12Z before dissipating on arrival around KABQ and KSAF near
14Z. Brief MVFR cigs are possible in a burst of rain/snow with a
dramatic westerly wind shift along the front. Southwest to west winds
will gust to btwn 40 and 50 kt over much of central and western NM
with gusts around 60 kt across parts of eastern NM. Significant BLDU
is possible around KTCC and KCVN in vcnty of the cold front. Winds
will taper off from west to east aft 22Z Wednesday as high pressure
builds southward into NM with clearing skies.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST Tue Dec 14 2021...
...SEVERE TO DAMAGING WIND EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PEAKING
WEDNESDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON...

.SYNOPSIS...
A potent storm system will start to impact the northern two-thirds
of New Mexico tonight through Wednesday. This system will bring very
strong to damaging winds, heavy snow and near blizzard conditions to
the Tusas Mountains, and the potential for rapid fire growth across
the northeast plains of New Mexico. Peak wind gusts for the mountain
peaks and adjacent downwind locations will exceed hurricane strength.
Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep through the state, allowing for a
cooler Wednesday. Snow accumulations will range from 8 to 12 inches
above 9,000 feet with notably higher snow drifts. Quieter weather is
expected for Thursday and Friday, although some gusty winds will be
possible for the northern mountains on Thursday. Another system will
migrate across the state for the upcoming weekend, but with a lack
of moisture, this storm system will not have a notable impact on the
sensible weather conditions outside of some breezy conditions in the
eastern plains on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
Southwest flow aloft is strengthening ahead of a digging trough
moving down the CA coastline this afternoon. Drier air embedded
within the southwest flow has pushed this morning's plume of
subtropical moisture out of the area allowing for clearer skies to
move in, however water vapor imagery is depicting more moisture
along a SW-NE line moving eastward into western NM. This could bring
a few light showers to western NM during the evening period.

All eyes are on the high wind event forecast to begin tonight,
peaking Wednesday morning, and lasting through Wednesday afternoon.
High confidence remains for a 110-120kt H5 jetmax to cross over the
central latitudes or I-40 corridor of the state by sunrise
Wednesday. High winds will begin in earnest over the Chuska and Gila
Mountains this evening, quickly expanding eastward to the Jemez and
central mountain chain by the predawn hours. Peak gusts of 60-75mph
will be possible atop mountain peaks. High to likely damaging winds
then build over the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia/Manzano, and south-
central mountains thereafter and expand over the eastern plains by
late morning. Model guidance continues to depict very strong lee-
cyclogensis occurring with a 3hr surface pressure drop of 8-10mb in
the heart of a surface low over western NE by 18Z. This will push
surface winds to their max strength through the northeastern and
east-central plains where gusts of 65-75 mph will threaten damage
and downed power lines. Widespread hazardous crosswinds will result
for north-to-south highways throughout northern and central NM.
Areas of blowing dust will also be likely through prone areas of the
eastern plains Wednesday afternoon, reducing visibility. All High
Wind Watches have been upgraded to warnings with Wind Advisories
filling in between.

Winter weather will be limited mainly to western and northern NM
accompanying the fropa crossing the AZ/NM border by roughly 3am,
pushing into the Rio Grande Valley three to four hours later. Light
snow accumulations to a dusting are likely through much of western
NM due to the fast progression of the front. A short period of high
winds combining with snow will likely create reduced visibility
between AZ and the Continental Divide tonight with the fropa. More
notable snow accumulations will be along the west slopes of Chuska
Mountains where 2-4 inches are forecast, and moreso the Tusas
Mountains near Chama where more significant 8-12 inches are forecast
above 9,000'. The Winter Storm Watch for the Tusas has been upgraded
to a warning due to the moderate to heavy snow combining with strong
winds. Short lived near blizzard conditions are likely through the
Tusas with the fropa between 4 to 8 am along U.S. Highway 64 between
Tres Piedras and Tierra Amarilla Wednesday morning. Conditions begin
to clear out late day near sunset. 24

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The primary forecast challenges will be the strength of winds over
the northern mountains for Thur/Thur night and the probability for
pcpn this weekend as a moisture-starved system migrates across NM.

Next upper level system enters the western U.S. for Thursday with a
speed max expected to traverse the central/southern Rockies. GFS is
advertising 50kts at 700hPa during peak mixing, which will support a
breezy to windy afternoon for the northern high terrain and eastern
slopes. It appears this speed max will strengthen Thur night (65kts
at 700hPa), but what remains in question is the placement of the jet.
NAM12 is further south compared to the GFS20, placing the strongest
winds along/east of the Sangres versus straddling the CO/NM border.
Guidance didn't seem to capture the full potential of peak winds and
opted to nudge higher. Future shifts may need to go even further as
forecast confidence of jet location improves.

On Friday, the northern stream of the trough shifts eastward into
the northern Great Plains. Meanwhile, energy located at the base of
the trough migrates into the Desert SW. All deterministic models are
suggesting a brief period where a closed low forms southwest of the
CWFA on Sat. Subtropical moisture will advect northeast in advance
of this disturbance, but will likely remain over northern Mexico to
central TX, possibly clipping southeast NM. That said, some guidance
suggests the upper low may tug some moisture into the southern zones.
This is a low confidence scenario and only have token ten PoPs over
the srn high terrain on Sat. Meanwhile, briefly cooler readings can
be expected behind a backdoor cold front that will invade eastern NM
Fri and Fri night.

Upper level ridge quickly rolls over the state for Sunday night and
Monday with quiet weather persisting into Tuesday in advance of the
next storm system for the middle of next week. DPorter

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...

Widespread critical fire to extreme conditions are forecast
Wednesday afternoon, mainly due to very high wind speeds filling in
through the northeastern and east-central plains with peak gusts of
60-75mph possible. A Red Flag Warning for these areas remains for
Wednesday afternoon. High winds will exist nearly areawide elsewhere
through the forecast area as well, but it is the northeast and east-
central plains where very dry air filling in behind a cold front
will also push humidities down to critical criteria. Wetting
precipitation will be limited to the western and northern high
terrain, and significant snowfall will be even more limited to the
Chuska, Tusas, Jemez, and Sangre de Cristo Mountain peaks. Showers
will generally come to a close by Wednesday afternoon. This system
quickly ejects eastward out of the area Wednesday night when winds
are forecast to subside. Calm weather with no fire weather concerns
Thursday into the weekend with mostly poor to fair ventilation each
day. 24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Wednesday for
the following zones... NMZ201-203-204-207-209.

High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Wednesday for
the following zones... NMZ212>216-221>224-226.

High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Wednesday
for the following zones... NMZ202-205-206-208-211-241.

Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Wednesday for the
following zones... NMZ217>220-225.

High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for the following
zones... NMZ227>235-237-239-240.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for the following
zones... NMZ104-108.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for the following
zones... NMZ236-238.

Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Wednesday
for the following zones... NMZ210.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
341 AM MST Tue Dec 14 2021

NMZ201>241-151200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
341 AM MST Tue Dec 14 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An approaching storm system will result in breezy southwest winds
this afternoon, especially across the eastern plains. Rain and
mountain snow showers will favor western New Mexico. Winds will
rapidly increase tonight with high wind to damaging winds across
western New Mexico after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Winds will continue to increase and spread eastward Wednesday morning
with high confidence in a damaging wind event, especially across
eastern New Mexico where wind gusts of 60-70 mph will be common. A
High Wind Watch is in effect for much of eastern New Mexico as well
as the northern and western mountains. Blowing snow with reduced
visibility will be likely across the high terrain and areas west of
the Continental Divide. Likewise, blowing dust with reduced
visibility will be likely across the eastern plains where dry
conditions will persist.

Additionally, the combination of very strong winds and dry conditions
will result in high fire danger for much of the eastern plains. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect for the northeast and east central plains
Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hazardous weather and damages through
the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq
or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

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