Showers and storms developed in an unstable airmass in the vicinity of an upper level low pressure system. Hail was the primary hazard with these storms but flooding also occurred thanks to the moisture in place across the region.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Showers and storms developed in an unstable airmass in the vicinity of an upper level low pressure system. Hail was the primary hazard with these storms but flooding also occurred thanks to the moisture in place across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 5, 11:33 AM CST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1233 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 18Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: Main focus this afternoon will be storms and timing the in/out elements of the overall scattered activity. The evening and initial part of the overnight will be quiet. Focus shifts to lowing visibilities (fog) and ceilings for later in the night period. Guidance is more on board for IFR/LIFR conditions over the E/SE sites with the lowest conditions occurring in the 09-14z window. Improvement looks to be quick in the 14-16z window. Less precip activity for the afternoon hours. /CME/ && .DISCUSSION...Going forecast is on track and we're seeing our upper low spin over the region. This feature will be our driving mechanism today into Wednesday. Morning patchy fog has lifted and we still have low clouds over the E. Forecast elements were tweaked to show the cloud trends and to slow precip chances a few hours this morning. In terms of storms and severe potential this afternoon. Things remain on track and no changes are needed. Morning JAN sounding is on the cold side with 500mb temps at -15C and a much lower WBZ at 10.2 kft. Steep lapse rates are in place with the cold core system overhead. As we warm into the lower 80s, low and mid level lapse rates will be steep with vertical totals running 28-29C. The anomalous cold mid level temps and lapse rates will support hail, some of which could reach severe levels with the strong cells. Low and mid level shear is weak, but shear in the 6-10 km levels is better and we should see the upper portions of the storm move off and tilt toward the N. This will likely aid in hydrometeor displacement to support less melting. To what extent is a bit unknown. If it is efficient, then we could see larger hail, if not, more likely quite a bit of sub-severe hail. As for coverage, HRRR is showing less, which could mean more robust cells due to less competition. However, other CAM output has a bit more, so we will have to wait and see what the trade off is and which wins out. In addition to hail potential, low level lapse rates will be steep as well and the stronger cells could easily generate gusty winds. Also, these lapse rates will promote a very fast warm up, likely quicker than what the grids show but will level off in the 78-82 range. Focus for overnight will be fog potential once again. Guidance is a bit more aggressive than yesterday so we may see more across the area. Anticipate another graphic highlighting this potential for tonight. /CME/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 81 63 81 61 / 55 7 21 5 Meridian 78 63 80 63 / 68 19 35 12 Vicksburg 82 63 82 62 / 31 6 14 2 Hattiesburg 80 63 82 62 / 39 9 22 6 Natchez 80 62 81 61 / 15 4 9 2 Greenville 81 62 80 61 / 51 17 26 2 Greenwood 82 62 80 61 / 68 18 29 4 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && CME
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 458 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-040-041-047-048-053- 054-059>061-061000- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar- Issaquena-Sharkey-Warren-Hinds-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams- Franklin MS- 458 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and southwestern Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Monday. MSZ019-025>027-034>036-042-043-061000- Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes- Yazoo-Madison MS- 458 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of the Mississippi Delta. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...This afternoon through early this evening Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon into early this evening. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today. MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-049>052-055>058-064>066-061000- Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston- Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale- Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones- 458 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...This afternoon through early this evening FOG THREAT...Limited TIMING...Through 9 AM Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon into early this evening. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Areas of fog with patchy dense fog are expected this morning. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region today. MSZ062-063-072>074-061000- Lincoln-Lawrence-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 458 AM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight FOG THREAT...Limited TIMING...Through 9 AM Areas of fog with patchy dense fog are expected this morning. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Monday. DL && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected. Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant severe weather possible. Enhanced...Severe storms expected. Slight...Severe storms possible. Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible. *FOG* Extreme...Widespread fog with visibilities near zero. Significant...Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile likely. Elevated...Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile possible. Limited...Patchy fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 1242 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 ARZ074-051815- Ashley AR- 1242 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 ...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Ashley County through 115 PM CDT... At 1241 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Snyder, or 13 miles northeast of Hamburg, moving south at 10 mph. HAZARD...Penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. This strong thunderstorm will be near... Snyder around 100 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. && LAT...LON 3327 9176 3339 9167 3339 9153 3322 9156 TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 017DEG 11KT 3335 9162 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN MAX WIND GUST...<40 MPH 19
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</html>Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 ARZ074-051845- Ashley AR- 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 ...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Ashley County through 145 PM CDT... At 120 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Hamburg, moving southwest at 15 mph. HAZARD...Penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. This strong thunderstorm will be near... Hamburg around 125 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. && LAT...LON 3333 9182 3327 9164 3311 9170 3320 9191 TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 025DEG 11KT 3323 9177 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN MAX WIND GUST...<40 MPH 19
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 132 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 MSZ048-051900- Hinds MS- 132 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 ...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Hinds County through 200 PM CDT... At 132 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Jackson. This storm was nearly stationary. HAZARD...Penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of . PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. && LAT...LON 3234 9025 3233 9020 3228 9024 3231 9030 TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 031DEG 1KT 3231 9025 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN MAX WIND GUST...<40 MPH 19
The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 24 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:44 UTC.
8 hail, 2 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A swath of hail fell across the Jackson metro area. Hail up to quarter size fell along Raymond Road near the intersection with Valley Street. Penny and dime size hail fell along the west side and downtown Jackson. Nickel size hail fell at I-20 and Terry Road.
Golf ball size hail fell in the Teoc community.
Hail to the size of nickels fell along I-55.
Nickel to quarter size hail fell near Gallman, especially at Lake Copiah.
Hail up to quarter size fell near Darlove.
Hail up to quarter size fell.
Dime size hail also fell in downtown Louisville.
The intersection of North Columbus Avenue and East Main Street near the post office was flooded. Flooding also occurred near the co-op building.
A tree was blown down on a power line.
Flooding occurred on Main and Wilkins streets.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 987480, 987481, 987545, 987547, 987482, 987483, 987484, 987529, 987531, 987524, 987530.