Extreme Cold in Minnesota, February 13 to 14, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
533 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Two more nights of dangerous cold temperatures ahead before
temperatures slowly start to warm for the remainder of the week
and into the weekend. Dry conditions will continue to prevail
through the period.

High pressure was building across the Northern Plains this
afternoon as an area of low pressure was over northern Lake
Superior with a trough extending northwestward to the Thunder Bay
area and into far northwestern Ontario. Skies were mostly sunny
across the Northland, but some anthropogenic cloud cover was seen
at a few locations along with some very light snow
showers/flurries. Light lake-effect snow was also persisting along
the northern Bayfield Peninsula. Mainly clear skies are expected
for tonight which will allow temperatures to quickly drop after
sunset. Started with the 10th percentile for lows and made minor
adjustments from there. Think we are too warm in spots across
northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead, but lingering cloud cover
and a tightening gradient between the low over Lake Superior and
the high over the Northern Plains will keep winds up through the
night and may temper optimal radiational cooling conditions. The
winds will still combine with the cold temperatures to create
dangerously cold wind chills of -40 to -60 degrees across most of
the Northland, so a Wind Chill Warning has been issued for tonight
through Sunday morning. Light lake-effect snow showers are
expected to linger along the Bayfield Peninsula, but should weaken
a bit overnight.

Sunday will remain cold with highs only reaching into the teens
and single digits below zero, setting up another very cold night,
but it looks like it should be the last one of this extended cold
streak. Again started with the 10th percentile lows, but will
probably need to be cooler in traditional cold spots. Dangerous
wind chills are again expected and an additional Wind Chill
Warning will likely be needed for most areas. For Monday into
Tuesday, a deep trough will move into the Plains and start to
shift the upper low and cold temperatures to the east, allowing
temperatures to moderate through the remainder of the period.
Tuesday should see highs in the teens and single digits above zero
with 20s possible by the week's end. The jet stream will remain
south of the region through the period, keeping the majority of
precipitation chances well to our south and east. Light lake-
effect snow showers across northwest Wisconsin look to end on
Monday as winds become less favorable. A system may brush the
region in the Wednesday-Thursday time period, but have kept a dry
forecast in place for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period.
Residual diurnal cumulus may lead to brief periods of MVFR
ceilings and visibilities for INL, HIB, and DLH for several hours
early this evening. Some diurnal cumulus is expected to develop
across the region Sunday afternoon, but should not be as
widespread as today or lead to any ceiling restrictions. With
winds from the northwest, can't rule out localized snow showers at
KINL, KHIB and KBRD once again Sunday, but conditions do look
less favorable for this at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -28 -10 -29  -1 /   0   0   0   0
INL -37 -12 -36   0 /   0   0   0   0
BRD -30 -10 -29  -1 /   0   0   0   0
HYR -31  -7 -33   1 /   0   0   0   0
ASX -21  -6 -22   3 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Sunday for WIZ001>004-006>009.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     Wind Chill Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Sunday for MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

     Wind Chill Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for
     MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH/Levens

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
308 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-142115-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
308 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Dangerous and life-threatening wind chills are expected once again
tonight into Sunday morning, with wind chills of 40 to 60 below
zero expected. A Wind Chill Warning has been issued across the
Northland.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Dangerous wind chills will continue Sunday through Monday morning,
with wind chills once again dropping to between 40 to 50 below
zero Sunday night and Monday morning. A Wind Chill Advisory is
currently in effect for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. A
Wind Chill Warning may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or
tonight.

JTS

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)