Damaging Winds in Nevada, February 13, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1227 PM PST Sat Feb 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A fast moving weather system will bring widespread
strong winds to the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin region
through this evening along with areas of blowing dust. A few
light showers are possible as well mainly across the Sierra,
southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. Additional disturbances
will bring another shot of wind on Tuesday along with periods of
mid and high clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night.

High wind event underway across the Western Mojave Desert region
this afternoon with Barstow-Daggett airport already eclipsing 60
mph gusts and Twentynine Palms also reaching up to 69 mph thus
far. Strong winds have also surfaced in the southern Owens Valley,
mainly south of Olancha where 55 to 65 mph gusts have been
reported on the regional mesonet. As expected, dust has been an
issue with visibilities of one-half mile to a mile commonly
reported across the western deserts, with Twentynine Palms even
briefly dipping to one-quarter mile. Dust issues will likely
compound this evening as winds peak in strength, so we will be
watching carefully for areas of roadway impacted by low visibility
for possible dust storm issuances.

Outside of the winds, -25C at 500mb cold pool is currently sliding
across southern NV and northwest AZ, allowing for some marginal
instability to build across the area and some weak convection to
fire. A few lightning strikes have been detected across central
Nye county and additional strikes are possible as shower activity
evolves across southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona through the
evening hours. High based convection may enhance surface winds for
a period as the cold front moves through during the evening hours
across the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River region, with patchy
blowing dust possible as well.

Overall, the forecast remains on track and have continued the
current headlines across the area with few changes. Strongest
winds in the Owens Valley and western Mojave Desert will wane by
sunset, though high winds will linger into the evening across the
Morongo Basin. Gusty northwest winds will also linger much of the
night across southern Nevada, especially through the gap and into
northwest Las Vegas.

Northerly breezes will hang on tomorrow, but will be most focused
across the Colorado River Valley where a Lake Wind advisory has
been posted for those partaking in holiday weekend recreation.
Temperatures will also be several degrees cooler, and close to
mid-February normals.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.

Another shortwave trough will dive across the Great Basin and into
the Four Corners region on Monday night into Tuesday, resulting in
an enhancement of north winds across the area and some slight
shower chances across our far northern zones, but overall this
system looks less impactful than the one moving through today.
Thereafter, amplifying high pressure ridge off the Pacific coast
will begin to spread into the Southwestern US resulting in
moderating temps, with high temperatures climbing above normal by
late this week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Northwest winds will pick up again this
afternoon along with chances for showers between 21z-01z. An
isolated storm is not out of the question during this time period.
Sustained winds of 20 knots gusting 30 knots are expected this
afternoon but could briefly become stronger up to 25-30 knots
gusting up to 40 knots with any shower activity. SCT-BKN clouds are
expected to drop to 8k-10k with the band of showers but should clear
quickly early this evening. After 01z, showers will clear out with
winds staying elevated out of the northwest for much of the
overnight. Winds remain out of the northwest on Sunday at 15-20
knots gusting up to 30 knots from the morning through mid-afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...A second area of showers and isolated storms will
develop over southern Nevada and northwest Arizona this afternoon
and early evening. Sudden, stronger winds and cloud heights lowering
to 7k-10k feet will be possible with any shower or storm activity.
General winds are expected to be strong across much of the area this
afternoon. Strongest winds look to be across San Bernardino County
this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front with gusts up to
55-65 knots possible. Strong northwest winds will also filter
southward behind the front with gusts of 30-40 knots for southern
Nevada and Inyo County through this evening. Winds will decrease
slightly overnight but still remain up between 10-20 knots with
gusts. Sunday will see a continuation of breezy, north to northwest
winds for much of the area at lower speeds than seen today. Highest
winds will be down the Colorado River Valley with winds of 20-25
knots gusting 30-35 knots. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Guillet

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