The drought status for Sherman County worsened during the latter half of November, reaching D2 Severe Drought Status. The D2 drought status for Cheyenne County expanded to encompass the entire county during the latter half of the month.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
The drought status for Sherman County worsened during the latter half of November, reaching D2 Severe Drought Status. The D2 drought status for Cheyenne County expanded to encompass the entire county during the latter half of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 9:54 PM CST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 954 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 258 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Latest upper air analysis shows a trough over the Northern Plains and a short wave ridge over the Great Basin. Within the ridge was a small scale trough. Westerly flow was over the forecast area. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover over all but the southeast part of the forecast area. Surface observations in the Nebraska Panhandle show light snow falling. Tonight the weak upper level short wave trough to the northwest of the forecast area will move through. Accompanying it will be light snow. The latest forecast data shows the short wave trough has shifted slightly northward in its track across the forecast area. Theta-e lapse rates in the 600-500mb layer are close to neutrally stable over the northeast part of the forecast area. In addition the lift will be in the dendritic zone over the northeast part of the forecast area as the snow moves through. The GFS has the band of snow placed similarly to the HREF, which agrees with WPC's snow fall amounts. Am thinking the majority of the snow will occur overnight into the first part of Monday morning. Those who still manage to have any garden survive this long over the eastern half of the forecast area will likely have a freeze tonight with temperatures falling to around 30 degrees. Due to the expected snow and the winter weather advisory in place, will not be issuing a frost or freeze product. Monday morning the snow will continue to move eastward. During the late morning subsidence will move in, causing the snow to end from west to east. The snow should be east of the forecast area by early afternoon. Highest snowfall amounts will be north of Highway 34. Due to this being the first snowfall of the season, even though amounts will be just below advisory criteria, decided to issue the advisory anyway. Highs will be similar to yesterday. Monday night another weak upper level short wave trough will move through the forecast area. The track of this one will be over the southwest half of the forecast area. Models are in better agreement with the track of the band of frontogenesis with this one than the band tonight. In the band theta-e lapse rates will be close to zero or possibly even slightly convective. Even though the band will move through rather quickly, the low stability, or lack there of, will allow more snow to fall than what would otherwise occur. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Weak impulses embedded in the northwest flow aloft combined with a moist southeasterly flow at the surface will result in light precipitation chances Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Precipitation type will be mostly rain during the day as temperatures warm into the 40s, with a wintry mix of rain and snow at night as surface temperatures cool. Snow amounts, if any, will be very light, less than a half inch expected at this time. The rest of the extended period, Wednesday afternoon through Sunday, will be dry with a gradual warming trend. A shortwave ridge will move across the area on Thursday with temperatures back into the middle 50s for highs. Another shortwave trough moves through on Friday but appears moisture will be lacking and models are dry. Models are then in very poor agreement with the upper pattern over the weekend, and in fact the GFS and ECMWF are completely out of phase. GFS has a large trough carved out over the northern plains while the ECMWF has a large ridge. GFS does not have much in the way of precipitation, but does show some gusty northwest winds both Saturday and Sunday, as well as cooler temperatures. Confidence is rather low in either solution at this time, but GFS has been more consistent. That said, the blended forecast results in high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s both days. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 953 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 The 06Z TAF period sees MVFR to IFR conditions at the KMCK terminal. Increasing chances for a wintry mix to all snow occurs for the terminal from 06Z through sunrise. Guidance continues to indicate that heavier snow band develops just north Red Willow county which would drop visibilities down to under 2 miles; confidence is low in this scenario at this time but worth mentioning. A more reasonable solution is light snow or a light wintry mix at the site. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to be the norm for the site through the entire TAF period with perhaps isolated instances of LIFR if the atmospheric profile moistens completely. Winds oscillate from the ESE to ENE throughout the entire period at 5-10 knots. For KGLD, ceilings remain mainly VFR with a few instances of MVFR throughout the period. A low chance for a rain/snow mix exists through the overnight hours, however the better forcing looks to remain north of the terminal so will leave out of TAFS due to the isolated nature of any precipitation. Winds will be out of the SE overnight at 10-15 knots before becoming more easterly throughout the day Monday at 5-10 knots. A chance of rain and snow then exists Monday evening through the night, with the low confidence on exactly where the best forcing lines up will leave out of the TAF for now. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for NEZ080-081. && SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...TT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 835 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-020245- Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas- Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock- Red Willow- 835 PM MDT Sun Oct 31 2021 /935 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... Light rain and snow is moving in from the west increasing in coverage overnight. A dusting to two inches of snow is forecast for the northern part of Hitchcock and Red Willow counties by mid morning Monday, with lower amounts to the south. Visibilities may be reduced in the falling snow. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Red Willow and Hitchcock counties from late tonight through early Monday afternoon. Lows will fall to around 30 degrees across the east half of the Tri- State Area tonight. Those with sensitive plants outside should bring them inside. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Any snow that does not completely melt away Monday will turn to ice Monday night, especially on bridges and overpasses. More chances for a wintry mix of precipitation are possible overnight Monday and Tuesday, lasting into the morning hours. Snowfall accumulations up to half an inch are possible across much of the area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. However snow reports are appreciated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Normal precipitation for the month ranged from 0.50-1. Observed precipitation ranged from 0.01-0.10, which is 0.50-1 below normal.
Normal precipitation for the month ranged from 0.50-1. Observed precipitation ranged from 0.01-0.10, which is 0.50-1 below normal.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 992760, 992761.