An upper level ridge moved across the northern high plains with mid level northwest flow ahead of it. Moderate instability across much of western Kansas but with weak large scale ascent values with a leeside trough sparking a number of storms out of eastern Colorado.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
An upper level ridge moved across the northern high plains with mid level northwest flow ahead of it. Moderate instability across much of western Kansas but with weak large scale ascent values with a leeside trough sparking a number of storms out of eastern Colorado. Coupled with moderate shear around 30-35 kts and relatively steep lapse rates, isolated storms pushed across western counties near the Colorado border.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 4:55 PM CST, 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 555 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 ...updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 A frontal boundary currently extends across northeast Colorado. Any storms associated with this front is expected to remain well northwest of the FA tonight. Any small chance of an isolated storm looks doubtful right now. Will keep ghost pops in for this evening. Otherwise, the rest of the evening will be on the tranquil weather side. A formation of a 40-50 kt LLJ is expected through the overnight period. This will help to keep sfc winds elevated through the morning hours as well. With the stronger winds, do expect warmer minimums heading into the morning hours. Values should range from the upper 60s west of Dodge City to lower 70s east of Dodge city. Some mid to high level clouds will periodically drift across the Kansas prairie throughout the short term period. For Wednesday, the above mentioned front will push southeast. Thunderstorms will eventually develop along this boundary. Have pops ramping up throughout the day. Since the front is expected not to be particularly fast moving, much of the FA will remain in the warm sector tomorrow. As a result, mid to upper 90s still look on track for much of southwest Kansas for highs. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 The relatively high storm chances will continue Wednesday night into Thursday morning. SPC has a marginal risk for a portion of the FA. Can't argue with this. The main threats would be wind and heavy rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday. Rainfall amounts of quarter of an inch to an inch looks possible under the heaviest/strongest of storms. Some good news is that we will get a brief break from the heat on Thursday. Values in the 80s looks likely for much of the FA. The front will wash out on Friday. Highs should quickly rebound back in the 90s on Friday and throughout the weekend. Any storm chances look fairly isolated to widely scattered for the weekend. Much of the FA should remain dry outside of this activity. For the next business week, an upper level ridge is expected to develop over the Northern Plains. This will put us in a pattern of generally dry conditions and continued seasonally hot highs. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 553 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 A single thunderstorm west of Highway 283 near Trego Center has developed into a cluster of multicells, that will likely remain non severe as they continue eastward at about 20 knots. Extrapolation of distance/speed would put them through the HAYS terminal by about 2330 UTC. At this time we do not expect to see much change at the other terminals (GCK/DDC/LBL) going forward as the rest of the potential convective activity is like to be focused along a surface convergence zone roughly northwest of a Syracuse to Scott City and Trego Center line. A developing low level jet may help keep winds mixed enough in the boundary layer overnight, to keep winds in the 15 to 20 knot range overnight while gusts quickly pick up to around 30 knots by sunrise Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 73 96 69 85 / 10 40 50 50 GCK 70 94 64 83 / 10 40 50 40 EHA 70 94 63 85 / 10 50 60 40 LBL 70 95 66 85 / 10 40 50 40 HYS 71 96 66 83 / 10 50 50 40 P28 73 97 73 88 / 0 20 30 50 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Russell
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Dodge City KS 337 AM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-140845- Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman- Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa- Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber- 337 AM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 /237 AM MDT Tue Jul 13 2021/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south central...southwest and west central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Day 1 Discussion ---------------- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in extreme western Kansas near and along the Colorado border later this evening. However, the potential for severe weather is low. Day 1 Hazards ------------- * Lightning: Limited risk * Excessive heat: Limited risk .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Days 2-7 Discussion ------------------- Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday evening into Thursday. Severe potential is uncertain at this time. Days 2-7 Hazards ---------------- * Wednesday - Lightning: Limited risk - Excessive heat: Limited risk * Thursday - Lightning: Limited risk * Friday - Lightning: Limited risk - Excessive heat: Limited risk * Saturday - Excessive heat: Limited risk - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk * Sunday - Excessive heat: Limited risk * Monday No hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && For more details visit our webpage https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 525 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 KSZ030-031-045-046-132315- Rush-Trego-Ellis-Ness- 525 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN NESS... TREGO...NORTHWESTERN RUSH AND SOUTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES... At 524 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Wakeeney to near Brownell. Movement was southeast at 20 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Ellis, Wakeeney, Ransom, McCracken, Ogallah, Collyer, Alexander, Brownell, Trego Center, Cedar Bluff, Nekoma, Riga and Voda. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. LAT...LON 3911 9962 3846 9943 3849 9995 3911 10014 TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 299DEG 19KT 3902 9991 3856 9975 RUSSELL
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 616 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 KSZ030-031-045-046-140015- Rush-Trego-Ellis-Ness- 616 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN NESS... TREGO...CENTRAL RUSH AND WESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES... At 615 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Ogallah to near Hargrave. Movement was east at 20 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Hays, Ellis, Wakeeney, La Crosse, Ransom, Bison, Schoenchen, McCracken, Ogallah, Rush Center, Collyer, Liebenthal, Timken, Brownell, Trego Center, Yocemento, Cedar Bluff, Munjor, Nekoma and Hargrave. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. LAT...LON 3837 9913 3869 10015 3905 10015 3907 9933 TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 279DEG 19KT 3898 9970 3862 9948 RUSSELL
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 144 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:37 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Large tree branches were broken, a swing set was blown over, and a grain bin was moved about six inches by high wind.
Winds were estimated to be 60 MPH.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 977307, 977308, 977310.