Wildfire in Washington, July 13 to 25, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
501 PM PDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will continue to see hot and dry conditions
through Wednesday with afternoon temperatures in the middle 90s
to around 100 in areas. Thursday and Friday will be cooler with
mid 80s to low 90s as cooler air comes off the Pacific. Increased
wind Wednesday and Thursday will raise fire concerns. Smoke from
regional fires will likely plague far southeast Washington and
the Lewiston area the next several days, as well as the Methow
Valley and parts of the Upper Columbia Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday Night: Hot, dry, hazy, smoky and at times
breezy conditions will occur over the next 2 days.

Temperatures will remain hot through Wednesday with temps peaking
in the upper 90s and lower 100s across the populated valley
locations. The heat advisory will continue until 8pm Wednesday.

Have decided to upgrade the fire weather watch to a warning given
the incredibly dry conditions, very low RH values and breezy
winds expected Wednesday and Thursday. Specifics are discussed
below.

The ridge currently over the Inland Northwest will move east
through Thursday. Temperatures will finally start to 'cool' down
starting Thursday into the 90s. A strong cross cascade gradient
sets up both Wednesday and Thursday which will provide the winds
for the Cascade gaps into the western Columbia Basin. The
strongest winds will occur after 5pm, but given low teens to
single digit relative humidities...it will take some time to get
RH values to rise above critical thresholds.

Portions of the Palouse and Spokane area will see winds 8 to 14
mph which technically doesn't meet red flag criteria. However
given the critical RH values, dry conditions and fires across the
region, have decided to add them in to the red flag as any new
fires will spread under these conditions.

The deterministic GFS and NAM are showing some elevated moisture
moving into SE WA and the southern ID Panhandle late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. There is some instability with
this feature, but there isn't a lot of forcing. For now have
increased cloud cover from the Blue mountains to Lookout Pass.

Widespread hazy conditions will continue across the region due to
the many fires across the region. Smoke down to the surface is
expected at times....especially overnight into the morning hours
for towns in close proximity to fires. Some towns include but are
not limited to Mazama, Winthrop, Nespelem, Keller, Lewiston,
Kellogg. /Nisbet

Friday through Tuesday: Daytime temperatures drop down to
seasonal norms for Friday and Saturday as low pressure along the
British Columbia coastline nudges into the region. This cool-down
looks to be short-lived, however, with increasing pressure heights
leading to temps back above normal early next week. Southwesterly
flow aloft will be in place for most of the extended forecast,
though some extended range models hint at the isolated chance for
thunderstorms Monday and beyond. Something to watch in the coming
days. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Hazy skies will continue to plague the region and area
TAF sites, with most locations remaining VFR. KLWS will be see
the greatest impact from smoke from wildfires with their vis
improving to 6SM this evening, but then deteriorating again
overnight to 3SM. KPUW will likely go down overnight as well given
proximity. JS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  99  62  91  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d'Alene  62  98  61  90  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        58  95  56  86  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       70 104  68  97  64  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       57  99  55  94  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      57  95  55  89  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        68  94  65  87  61  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     64 101  58  94  56  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      70  98  65  91  62  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67 103  64  96  62  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur d'Alene Area-
     Idaho Palouse-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 11 PM PDT Thursday for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Palouse and Spokane Area (Zone 674).

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 11 PM PDT Thursday for
     East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for East
     Washington Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Spokane WA
546 AM PDT Tue Jul 13 2021

IDZ001-004-026-027-WAZ031-032-141300-
Northern Panhandle-Central Panhandle Mountains-Lewiston Area-
Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains-
Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
546 AM PDT Tue Jul 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Idaho...
North Central Idaho and Southeast Washington.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Hot and dry conditions will likely continue to aggravate fires in
the region. Smoke will impact air quality at times to unhealthy
levels.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Hot and dry conditions will likely continue to aggravate fires in
the region. Smoke will impact air quality at times to unhealthy
levels. An increase in winds later Thursday will move smoke out of
the area at time but potentially elevate fire concerns.

IDZ002-003-WAZ033>036-041-044-141300-
Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Washington Palouse-
Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Spokane Area-Wenatchee Area-
Waterville Plateau-
546 AM PDT Tue Jul 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Idaho...
Central Washington...East Central Washington...North Central
Washington...Northeast Washington and Southeast Washington.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
Heat will continue through Wednesday. Dry and hot conditions will
be accompanied with breezes at times which will elevate fire
concerns further.

WAZ037-038-042-043-141300-
Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
546 AM PDT Tue Jul 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Washington and Northeast Washington.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
Heat will continue through Wednesday. Dry and hot conditions will
be accompanied with breezes at times. Fire danger will continue
even though temperatures cool later in the week.