Moisture and thunderstorms increased over northern Arizona with several reports of flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Moisture and thunderstorms increased over northern Arizona with several reports of flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 230 PM MST Tue Jul 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered to widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected across northern Arizona through Thursday. Flash flooding will be the main threat during this time, especially for lower elevation areas south of the Mogollon Rim tonight. Temperatures warm a few degrees by the weekend compared to the rest of this week, along with continued storm chances. && .DISCUSSION...A complex of thunderstorms has formed northeast of the Mogollon Rim and into the Little Colorado River valley this afternoon. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds with some periods of hail are being observed. Other high terrain areas in northern Arizona can expect continued storm development through the rest of this afternoon today. High resolution guidance continues to prog isolated to scattered coverage for lower elevation regions south of the Mogollon Rim through this evening. A shortwave disturbance begins to initiate a more organized area of showers and thunderstorms tonight in Arizona. Expect another period of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading from northwest to southeast tonight and early Wednesday morning. The Flash Flood Watch for lower elevation locations south of the Mogollon Rim remains in effect through 5 AM MST Wednesday. Residual cloud cover from the overnight convection continues to be a point of uncertainty for the forecast on Wednesday. The general thinking is limited convective activity in the morning hours for western areas with the earlier mentioned area of showers tonight moving into southeast Arizona by late Wednesday morning. As skies clear by early to mid afternoon though another round of showers and thunderstorms could form tomorrow and last into the Wednesday late evening due to upper level instability. Scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity is favored for high terrain areas on Thursday as skies clear after these next two days of active weather. Ensemble guidance is pointing towards increasing confidence in high pressure strengthening and building north of Arizona by this weekend. At this point continued moisture and slowly warming temperatures this weekend are expected to re-initiate storms over the high terrain each afternoon. There is potential for more widespread coverage returning by early next week. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Mainly VFR conditions prevail for the duration of the TAF period. Thunderstorms will spread across north-central and northeastern Arizona through this evening. More showers and storms are expected to spread from northwest to southeast beginning around 03-05z tonight and through the overnight hours. The stronger storms will produce periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities, along with wind gusts above 40 mph. A third round of thunderstorms remains likely in northern Arizona for Wednesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across northern Arizona through Thursday. Wetting rains and flash flooding are possible each day. Winds will remain between 5-15 mph, except near thunderstorms where gusty and erratic winds are favored. Friday through Sunday...Scattered thunderstorms continue into the weekend, most favored in east central Arizona. Expect mild temperatures and low to moderate Haines Index each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight FOR AZZ018-037-038. && PUBLIC...NL AVIATION...NL FIRE WEATHER...NL For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 157 PM MST Tue Jul 13 2021 AZZ012-015-016-132130- Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim- 157 PM MST Tue Jul 13 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY FROM EAST FLAGSTAFF TO TWIN ARROWS UNTIL 230 PM MST... At 154 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from just east of Flagstaff Mall to 10 miles south of Twin Arrows. Movement was northeast at 10 mph. Half inch to dime size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... East side of Flagstaff, Cosnino, Angell, Winona, Walnut Canyon National Monument, Doney Park, Twin Arrows and Walnut Canyon Visitors Center. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3534 11146 3510 11112 3496 11129 3518 11161 TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 192DEG 9KT 3520 11154 3501 11128 JJ
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 306 PM MST Tue Jul 13 2021 AZZ008-037-038-132245- Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County Mountains-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons- 306 PM MST Tue Jul 13 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY FROM JEROME AND COTTONWOOD TO DEWEY UNTIL 345 PM MST... At 305 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Clarkdale to near Mayer. Movement was southeast at 15 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Clarkdale, Verde Village, Cherry, Poland Junction, Bridgeport, Cottonwood, Jerome, Mingus Mountain Campground, Playground Group Campground, Potato Patch Campground, Tuzigoot National Monument, Dead Horse Ranch State Park and Powell Springs Campground. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3481 11190 3435 11209 3442 11229 3491 11210 TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 307DEG 12KT 3482 11206 3443 11222 JJ
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 56 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:45 UTC.
6 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Verde River in Camp Verde had a 5.6 foot rise on the river gauge at 445 PM MST.
A thunderstorm with heavy rain produced runoff 4 feet deep near Ryal Trail at Salt Mine Road. This caused the collapse of a dirt berm on the east side of Salt Mine Road when the drainage pipe was overwhelmed.
About a foot and a half ow was was flowing along Linda Vista north of Grand View Street down stream form the Museum Fire scar (2019).
Heavy rain and rushing water caused a rock fall on Highway 89A just north of Sedona.
Heavy rain and flowing water caused a rockfall along Highway 260 between Mile Post 235 and 237.
Heavy rain caused a 3.93 foot rise on Havasu Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 976956, 976962, 977537, 977525, 977526, 977539.